What is the impact of Bitcoin encryption? A Google study shows that the number of Quantum Bits needed for decryption has drastically decreased.

## What is the impact on Bitcoin encryption?

Google’s quantum computer research team announced on the 21st a new method that significantly reduces the number of qubits required to decipher RSA encryption. According to researcher Craig Gidney, decrypting a 2048-bit RSA key will be possible in under a week with less than a million qubits. (This is also a point that cannot be realized with current hardware.)

This achievement has realized a reduction of 20 times from the team’s estimates in 2019. Previously, 20 million quantum bits were required, but significant efficiency improvements have been achieved through algorithm enhancements and advancements in error correction technology.

The factors for the reduction of the number of quantum bits are mainly attributed to two technological innovations. In computational algorithms, approximate remainder operations are adopted, which have doubled the processing speed of modular exponentiation. In error correction, the density of logical quantum bits has been tripled, and the efficiency of quantum operations has been improved using magic state distillation technology.

The currently strongest IBM-made quantum computer “Condor” has a performance of 1,121 quantum Bits, while Google’s “Sycamore” remains at 53 quantum Bits. Although it is far from practical encryption decryption, the trajectory of technological advancement provides significant insights for Bitcoin holders.

Bitcoin adopts elliptic curve encryption based on mathematical principles similar to RSA. Research results from Google indicate that the security of cryptocurrencies is increasingly at risk of being compromised in a shorter time frame than previously assumed. Bitcoin’s 256-bit encryption is considered stronger than RSA, but in light of the exponential performance improvements of quantum computers, the situation is not optimistic. However, short-term risks are perceived to be low.

It seems that major asset management company BlackRock is taking this quantum threat seriously. The company has newly stated in the official documents for its Bitcoin ETF that advancements in quantum computer technology pose a risk of invalidating the encryption of the Bitcoin network. The documents warn that “quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s encryption, allowing malicious attackers to compromise wallets and cause losses to shareholders.”

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) recommends the phasing out of vulnerable systems after 2030 and a ban on their use after 2035. Google is working with experts in encryption technology to prepare for the transition to quantum-resistant encryption, and the Bitcoin industry is also urgently considering countermeasures.

In fact, in April, Bitcoin developers proposed a mandatory migration plan from old addresses to secure wallets in preparation for the risks posed by quantum computers, sparking active discussions.