Analysis of the Legislative Process of US Stablecoins and Its Potential Impact

Current Progress:
1. The "GENIUS Act" (Guidance and Establishment of Innovative Stablecoins in the U.S.) has passed a key procedural vote in the Senate, receiving support from 15 Democrats, surpassing the "motion to proceed" threshold.
2. Trump's advisor David Sacks predicts that the bill will receive significant bipartisan support and could quickly unleash trillions of dollars in demand for U.S. Treasuries.

Core Controversy Point:
1. Conflict of interest issues:
- The Trump family is deeply involved in the cryptocurrency business (including their own meme coin and the USD1 stablecoin from World Liberty Financial).
- The Democratic Party questions the lack of safeguards in the bill to prevent the president's family from profiting.
- Sacks himself took on a White House position after selling $200 million in cryptocurrency assets.

2. Policy Value Discrepancy:
- Supporters believe that:
• Establish a more efficient payment system
• Consolidate the digital hegemony of the US dollar
• Create new demand for government bonds (currently 200 billion in unregulated stablecoins may expand to several trillion)
- Opponent's concerns:
• The regulatory framework is not完善
• May be exploited by certain political families

Market Impact:
1. Status of Stablecoins:
- Tether occupies 60% market share (supported by Cantor Fitzgerald)
- Annual trading volume of $28 trillion (exceeding the total of Visa and MasterCard)
- New competitors emerging (e.g., USD1 supported by Trump received a $2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi MGX Fund)

2. Bitcoin Association:
- The bill advances while Bitcoin reaches a new high of $110,000.
- Show the sensitive reaction of the crypto market to regulatory developments

Potential obstacles:
1. Senator Holley's Additional Clause:
- "Poison Pill" clause restricting credit card late fees
- May provoke opposition from the banking industry, threatening the final passage of the bill.

2. Political Factors in Elections:
- The Democratic Party may continue to emphasize the conflicts of interest involving the Trump family.
- or influence the positions of some moderate lawmakers

Future Outlook:
1. If the bill passes:
- The United States will establish the first comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins.
- May attract global stablecoin issuers to turn to US Treasury reserves
- Strengthen the dominance of the US dollar in the digital payment space

2. Long-term impact:
- Reshaping the competitive landscape of the global payment system
- Create new channels for national bond demand (especially in the context of continuously expanding debt scale)
- May trigger other countries to accelerate the regulatory competition for stablecoins.

The legislative process reflects the complex balance between financial innovation and political risk in the United States, the outcome of which will have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency industry, the international status of the US dollar, and the treasury market. Despite the controversies, signs of bipartisan cooperation on certain technical provisions suggest that stablecoin regulation may become one of the few areas of bipartisan financial reform in the United States.