Tonight, the US CPI data for March will be announced, and due to the 90-day tariff extension, the market has significantly dropped the bets on a rate cut resuming in May. The good news is that, barring any surprises, June will become the deadline since the Federal Reserve paused rate cuts!

Currently, traders are betting that the probability of a rate cut in June has reached 54%, which seems quite stable; however, tonight's CPI is likely to change this probability distribution! Regardless of whether the CPI rises or falls, the possibility of a rate cut being brought forward to May is relatively small, so the real question to speculate on is whether there is still hope for a rate cut in June if the CPI data is bad?
This represents that the pause in the easing process for our risk market will last for a maximum of 3 months and a minimum of 2 months.
Coincidentally, the extension of tariffs in various countries is exactly 90 days, which feels more like a timed bomb warning to the Federal Reserve! #加密市场反弹 #CPI & PPI 数据将公布 #当前行情分析：抄底还是观望？