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October Encryption Marketplace Review and Hotspot Analysis

PANews

2025-11-03 23:04:53

TL;DR

In October 2025, the United States entered a monetary easing cycle, with the Federal Reserve (FED) cutting rates and pausing balance sheet reduction. However, economic recovery remains weak, with high inflation, a sluggish job market, low consumer confidence, and intertwined government and external risks impacting growth. Inflation has eased but remains above target, weak employment and fiscal constraints have limited the short-term boost of easing policies on consumption and investment. Overall, the US is at the early stage of the easing cycle, with an improved policy environment, but uncertainty around inflation, employment, and external risks continues to pressure the recovery.
The crypto marketplace saw extreme volatility in October. During the “10·11” big dump, volume surged to $428.2 billion, hitting a monthly peak, then trading calmed, with weak liquidity and declining risk appetite. Overall market capitalization dipped 0.57% from last month, stabilizing after a sharp pullback, with cautious sentiment and insufficient new capital. Newly listed tokens focused on infrastructure, Decentralized Finance (DeFi), and AI projects, while Chinese MEME coins saw a short-term big pump but lacked sustainability.
In October, Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs saw net inflows of $5.55 billion and $1.01 billion, respectively. Market confidence recovered somewhat after the black swan event, but overall sentiment remains cautious. Stablecoin total circulating supply increased by $9.38 billion, with USDT and USDC as the main sources of growth, while USDE’s circulating supply dropped sharply by 31.1% due to a depegging event.
Bitcoin’s short-term momentum weakened, failing to hold above the 50-day SMA and now fluctuating near the 20-day EMA. If it breaks the $107,000 support level, it could accelerate down to $100,000, while $118,000 is a key resistance above. Ether remains weak, falling below the 50-day SMA; if it breaks the descending triangle support line, it could drop further to $3,350. If it regains the 50-day SMA, bulls may drive a rebound, but resistance above remains strong. Solana is in a clear tug-of-war, failing to hold above the 20-day EMA. If it breaks and holds above, it could rise to the channel resistance line; if it falls below $190, bears may dominate, with a possible drop to $177 or even a test of the channel’s lower edge.
October saw the largest liquidation in crypto history. Bitcoin, Ether, and alts plunged due to Trump’s tariff announcement and the USDe depegging event, with global Get Liquidated amounts hitting a record $19.1 billion, exposing systemic leverage risk. Chinese MEME coins quickly went viral on Binance and the Solana/Base ecosystems, with projects like “Binance Life” seeing a big pump in market capitalization and attracting many new traders, becoming a phenomenon. The launch of the x402 protocol drew market attention, with related project prices surging in the short term before pulling back, showing concentrated and volatile interest in innovation concepts.
Next month, the prediction marketplace is expected to continue accelerating, with projects like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Truth Predict driving industry liquidity and attention, and capital and public chain ecosystem layouts speeding up. After the October 11 black swan event, the crypto marketplace remains structurally damaged, but expectations of trade easing and favorable policy provide support for short-term risk asset recovery. Key areas to watch include new prediction marketplace project performance, US-China trade developments, changes in the dollar and liquidity environment, and leverage risk in the crypto marketplace.

1. Macro Perspective

In October 2025, the US economy entered an easing cycle, but recovery momentum remains weak. The Federal Reserve (FED) cut rates consecutively and will pause balance sheet reduction, shifting policy focus from suppressing inflation to stabilizing growth and protecting jobs, reflecting concerns about economic slowdown. Inflation remains high, the job market is persistently weak, consumer confidence is declining, and government shutdowns and external risks are intertwined, resulting in a “policy is loose, but growth hasn’t started” situation. Overall, the US is at the early turning point of the cycle, with an improved policy environment but macro recovery still needing time.

Policy Shift

In October, the Federal Reserve (FED) cut rates by another 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to the 3.75%–4.00% range, and announced a pause in balance sheet reduction to release liquidity and strengthen the easing effect. This marks a full shift in monetary policy toward growth. The current decision logic prioritizes stabilizing growth, with the FED seeing inflation risk as relatively controllable, while worsening employment and fiscal uncertainty are more urgent challenges. The marketplace expects another rate cut this year, but policy transmission will take time, making it hard to quickly stimulate consumption and corporate investment in the short term.

Inflation Still Above Target

September CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year, with core CPI also at 3.0%, lower than expected but still above the FED’s 2% target. Food, housing, and service prices remain strong, indicating endogenous inflation hasn’t fully dissipated. Powell emphasized in his statement that while inflation is moderating, policy cannot relax vigilance too early. If inflation slows its decline, the FED may delay further easing. Inflation is temporarily controllable, but the target range hasn’t been reached.

Job Market Further Weakens

The rapid cooling of the labor market is the core driver of this round of easing. Due to the US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended the release of September nonfarm payroll data, leaving the marketplace without key references. The latest available August data shows employment growth slowed significantly, with only 22,000 new jobs added. June data was revised down to negative growth. The weak labor market is undermining consumption and service sector support, worsening household income expectations. The marketplace is generally concerned that if employment continues to deteriorate, the economy will fall into deeper growth decay, forcing the FED to take more Aggressive easing measures.

Political, Fiscal, and External Risks Persist

The US government has shut down due to a failed budget, with some departments suspending pay and operations, weakening fiscal spending and data transparency. Geopolitical tensions continue, including Middle East unrest and US-China tech conflicts, all increasing risk premiums. Fiscal and external uncertainty has weakened the marginal effect of monetary easing, slowing the pace of marketplace recovery. Easing provides short-term support, but policy transmission channels are blocked, and business confidence and long-term investment remain limited.

Outlook

The US is at the early stage of the easing cycle, with an improved policy environment but an unsteady economic recovery. The future focus is on whether inflation can continue to fall, employment can stabilize, and easing policy can effectively transmit to consumption and investment. Fiscal deadlock, geopolitical risk, and marketplace confidence remain major uncertainties.

2. Crypto Marketplace Overview

Coin Data Analysis

Volume & Daily Growth Rate

According to CoinGecko data, as of October 27, crypto marketplace volume fluctuated significantly. During the “10·11” big dump, marketplace sentiment surged, with volume spiking to $428.2 billion, up 106% month-over-month, setting a monthly peak as funds were rapidly released amid panic and speculation. Outside this period, overall trading was calm, with most volume between $150 billion and $200 billion, indicating declining risk appetite and cautious sentiment. Liquidity is somewhat weak, with a lack of sustained new capital inflows; short-term recovery still needs macro and Favourable Information to drive stronger upward momentum.

Total Market Capitalization & Daily Growth

According to CoinGecko data, as of October 27, total crypto market capitalization was $3.94 trillion, down 0.57% from last month. From the start of the month to October 9, total market capitalization rose steadily from $3.96 trillion to $4.32 trillion, reflecting a gradual return of funds amid phased Favourable Information. But from October 10–11, the marketplace suddenly turned down, with daily market capitalization falling over 9%, the largest monthly pullback, showing panic-driven capital outflows during the “10·11” event. The marketplace briefly rebounded, rising up to 5.7%, but the overall rebound was limited, with market capitalization fluctuating between $3.7 trillion and $3.9 trillion. Overall, after sharp adjustment, the marketplace stabilized, with increased wait-and-see sentiment and insufficient new capital inflows, remaining in a volatile phase.

Hot New Tokens in October

Hot new tokens listed in October mainly focused on infrastructure, Decentralized Finance (DeFi), and AI zones, with most projects backed by VC. Notable projects include Enso, Recall, Falcon Finance, YieldBasis, and ZEROBASE, which saw active volume after listing. Additionally, the Chinese MEME zone saw a short-term big pump driven by the “Binance Life” effect and CZ’s posts, with Binance contracts further fueling sentiment.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

BTC, ETH ETF Inflow/Outflow Analysis

October BTC Spot ETF Net Inflow $5.55 Billion

In October, Bitcoin spot ETF continued its inflow trend, with monthly net inflow reaching $5.55 billion and total assets rising to $149.9 billion, up 3.8% month-over-month. Bitcoin’s price rose slightly from $108,936 at the end of September to $110,070, a 1% rise. After the October 11 black swan, marketplace confidence has improved somewhat, but overall remains subdued.

October ETH Spot ETF Net Inflow $1.01 Billion

Ether spot ETF saw about $1.01 billion net inflow in October, with total assets rising to $26.6 billion, up 3.9% month-over-month. ETH price rose from $3,839 to $3,904, a 1.69% rise.

Stablecoin Inflow/Outflow Analysis

October Stablecoin Total Circulating Supply Surges $9.38 Billion

Although the overall stablecoin marketplace remained in inflow and growth in October, the October 11 black swan severely hit marketplace confidence. USDE, in particular, saw its price depeg during the event, raising doubts about its algorithmic stablecoin mechanism and causing circulating supply to drop nearly 31.1%. Overall, stablecoin total circulating supply increased by $9.38 billion to $281.25 billion. USDT added $10.15 billion in a single month, remaining the leader. USDC (+$2.23 billion) was also a major source of growth.

4. Major Coin Price Analysis

BTC Price Change Analysis

Bitcoin failed to hold above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA, $114,278), triggering new selling pressure and pushing the price below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA, $112,347). This signals weakening short-term momentum and cautious sentiment. If BTC closes below the 20-day EMA, bears may push further, driving BTC/USDT down to the key support level of $107,000. Bulls are expected to defend this level strongly, as a break would confirm a “double top” pattern and could accelerate the drop to the psychological $100,000 mark.

On the upside, $118,000 remains a major resistance for bulls. If the price breaks and holds above this level, it will unleash strong upward momentum, pushing BTC toward the all-time high of $126,199. Until then, the marketplace may remain choppy near the moving averages, with increased short-term Fluctuation.

ETH Price Change Analysis

Ether retreated again after touching the 50-day SMA ($4,220), showing bears are active at higher levels and the overall trend remains weak. The current price is approaching the descending triangle Support Line, a key level for short-term direction. If this support is broken, ETH/USDT may fall further to $3,350 or lower.

If bulls can reclaim the 50-day SMA, it signals short-term momentum is recovering. The price could then rebound to the upper edge of the descending triangle, where selling pressure is expected to be strong. Only if Ether successfully breaks this resistance and holds above it can a new uptrend begin and a medium-term reversal signal be confirmed.

SOL Price Change Analysis

Solana briefly broke above the 20-day EMA ($196) but failed to sustain the pump, showing weak buying power at higher levels. The 20-day EMA is flattening, and the RSI is fluctuating near neutral, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. If buyers push the price and hold above the 20-day EMA, SOL/USDT could rise further to the channel resistance line, and a successful breakout would significantly boost bullish expectations.

Conversely, if the price falls below $190, bears regain control. In this case, SOL may drop to $177 and further test the lower support of the rising channel. If support holds and stabilizes, it may signal accumulation at lower levels; if support fails, the pullback could deepen.

5. Hot Events of the Month

Crypto Marketplace Sees Largest Liquidation in History, Trump Tariffs and USDe Depegging Trigger Chain Reaction Dump

On the evening of October 10, US President Trump suddenly announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1 and canceled the planned US-China meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, triggering violent Fluctuation in global financial markets. US stocks surged then dumped, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index rising 283 points before plunging 887 points, and the Nasdaq Index dropping over 3.5%. Risk assets reacted in a chain, with the crypto marketplace experiencing a fierce downtrend in hours—Bitcoin fell to $102,000, Ether hit a low of $3,392, and global Get Liquidated amounts reached $19.1 billion, a record high. According to Coinglass data, over 1.62 million traders were liquidated globally, with long orders liquidated for $16.7 billion and short orders for nearly $2.5 billion. Alts were hit hardest, with many falling over 80%, and some small tokens nearly going to zero. Stablecoin USDe on Binance platform depegged to $0.60 before recovering above $0.99.

This marketplace dump was not only triggered by macro policy shocks but also revealed systemic risk from market maker capital shortages. After Jump collapsed, market makers took over many projects previously serviced by Jump, but with limited funds, they prioritized Tier0 and Tier1 large projects, leaving small alts unsupported during the sell-off. USDe’s high-yield Borrow activities were liquidated under extreme selling pressure, leverage multiplied, triggering chain liquidations and further panic.

Chinese MEME

In early October 2025, Binance co-founder He Yi’s social media post “Wish you enjoy Binance Life” unexpectedly ignited creative enthusiasm in the Chinese crypto group, spawning the MEME coin “Binance Life.” The concept quickly went viral with group and KOL promotion, with market capitalization surging to $500 million in days—a 6,000x big pump—becoming a phenomenon. According to DeFiLlama, BNB chain DEX daily volume soared to $6.05 billion, attracting over 100,000 new traders.

Notably, Solana and Base, the main public chains for MEME, also saw hot Chinese MEME coins recently. Solana’s official account posted its Chinese name “Suolala,” spawning related MEME coins. Base’s “Base Life” market capitalization also broke $10 million, with several small Chinese MEME coins emerging. From Binance Life to Xiuxian and Customer Support Xiao He, these projects have exploded in popularity, giving Chinese MEME a foothold in the crypto marketplace. With BSC ecosystem expansion and more creators joining, more new MEME projects inspired by Chinese topics, characters, or internet memes are expected to emerge.

x402 Protocol

x402 is an AI payment protocol jointly launched by Coinbase and Cloudflare, inspired by the long-unused HTTP status code “402 Payment Required.” The protocol’s core innovation is embedding payment logic into web interactions, making payment part of internet communication—a new “Payment as Interaction” model. With x402, AI Agents, API services, and web applications can complete instant stablecoin payments directly in standard HTTP requests. With native support for stablecoins, high frequency, and low latency, x402 is ideal for AI Agents to buy data, tools, or hash rate on demand, and allows Web2 services to integrate on-chain Settlement with minimal changes, bypassing Sign Up, Email, or complex Signature hurdles.

Although the x402 concept became a hot topic within two days of launch, driving related project prices up sharply—PING’s price rose nearly 20x in two days, with market capitalization reaching $80 million, and Payai’s market capitalization peaking at $70 million—its popularity quickly pulled back after a week, with many hot projects seeing deep 80% pullbacks from highs. However, the concept hasn’t faded. With new tokens like Kite and Pieverse launching, interest in the x402 ecosystem may reignite.

6. Next Month Outlook

Prediction Marketplace Enters Accelerated Expansion Phase

From 2024–2025, the prediction marketplace zone has entered an explosive growth phase. Leading projects Polymarket and Kalshi continue to dominate, with daily volume repeatedly breaking $100 million and cumulative volume reaching tens of billions. On the capital side, Polymarket and Kalshi completed new funding rounds at valuations of about $9 billion and $5 billion, respectively, marking a key turning point as prediction marketplaces move from fringe innovation to mainstream financial infrastructure.

In October, Trump’s media company TMTG announced its entry into the prediction marketplace via the Truth Social platform, launching the Truth Predict service. This will further expand prediction marketplace influence in US politics and public opinion, and may become a milestone in the integration of traditional social media and crypto prediction marketplaces. Meanwhile, capital and public chain ecosystem layouts are accelerating. YZI Labs invested in two prediction marketplace projects—Opinion and Apro—this month; Coinbase-backed prediction protocol Limitless officially issued its token, now valued at about $350 million. Mainstream institutions and leading ecosystems are actively entering, signaling prediction marketplaces are shifting from early “crypto niche experiments” to next-generation financial infrastructure focused on liquidity, compliance, and composability. Key areas to watch include the market performance of tokens from Limitless, Opinion (not yet issued), and Apro, which may spark new discussions in the current narrative-light marketplace.

Market Recovery After October 11 Black Swan

Since the October 11 “black swan” event, the crypto marketplace has suffered significant structural damage and may remain highly volatile and risky in the short term. On October 30, Trump and Xi Jinping met, easing US-China tensions; the next day, the US Senate passed a resolution (51–47) to end Trump’s global tariff policy. This policy shift is a positive signal for the marketplace, likely to boost trade easing expectations and improve risk appetite. However, structural damage hasn’t been immediately repaired: although tariffs were “voted down” by Congress, actual implementation and a comprehensive US-China trade agreement remain uncertain, and policy execution is still unclear; additionally, the US government shutdown continues, with some departments suspending pay and operations, weakening fiscal spending and data transparency. The crypto marketplace is highly dependent on macro liquidity, dollar strength, geopolitics, and regulatory expectations, with multiple variables still developing.

Looking ahead, if trade relations truly warm and drive real economic recovery, it could trigger a “risk asset return” for crypto assets; if policy implementation lags or new frictions arise, capital outflows and renewed marketplace Fluctuation may follow. Key areas to watch: 1) progress in US-China trade talks and the specific timetable for tariff removal/restoration; 2) dollar trends, liquidity environment changes, especially US monetary and forex policy transmission effects; 3) leverage usage and Get Liquidated risk in the crypto marketplace, as structural damage makes forced liquidations prone to chain reactions.

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