MegaETH Valuation Game: Is it a Good Opportunity to Get on Board or is Risk Approaching?

This article will analyze the financing history and valuation logic of MegaETH, which Vitalik bet on, and explore whether this Ethereum L2 project that promises to achieve a “real-time blockchain” is worth investing. (Synopsis: Ethereum L2 network MegaETH is about to TGE? What preparations can be made for the ICO on the Sonar platform? (Background supplement: V God also participated!) New public chain MegaETH receives 20 million magnesium financing: target 100,000 TPS, mainnet will be launched by the end of the year) MegaETH has become a focus project in the crypto market with the ecological concept of “real-time blockchain” technology breakthrough and community co-construction. While the Ethereum ecosystem is still struggling with performance bottlenecks, MegaETH reshapes the imaginary boundaries of the Layer2 track with a technical claim of “100,000 TPS + millisecond latency”. From the seed round in which Vitalik participated in the early days, to the lightning fundraising of the Echo community, to the NFT sale at the beginning of this year, every step of MegaETH has touched the nerves of the market. Now, the project that Vitalik Buterin has bet on is about to go public on the Sonar platform. Is this a rare entry opportunity for ordinary investors? Or is it the last stick for risk accumulation? This article will break down the financing context, valuation logic, core value and potential risks. MegaETH Financing Journey: From VC, Vitalik Endorsement to Community Co-construction As an Ethereum L2 project that promises a “real-time blockchain”, MegaETH's financing journey shows an evolutionary trajectory from VC financing to community-driven sales. In June 2024, MegaETH announced the completion of a $20 million seed round led by Dragonfly, with participation from Figment Capital, Robot Ventures, Big Brain Holdings and other institutions, angel investors including Vitalik Buterin, founder and CEO of ConsenSys Joseph Lubin, and EigenLayer Founder and CEO Sreeram Kannan, ETHGlobal co-founder Kartik Talwar, Helius Labs co-founder and CEO Mert Mumtaz, Hasu and Jordan Fish (aka Cobie), among others. Fast forward to December 2024, and MegaETH raised $10 million in less than three minutes through Cobie's Echo platform, far exceeding its stated goal of $4.2 million. The round attracted approximately 3,200 investors from 94 countries, raising an average of $3,140 per investor. At the time, Shuyao Kong, co-founder of MegaETH, told The Block that the seed and Echo rounds were structured with equity and token warrants, and both rounds were valued at “nine figures,” meaning FDV was at least $100 million. To the community's surprise, in February this year, MegaETH launched the “The Fluffle” series of NFTs for innovative financing to further expand the community base. The 10,000 NFTs in this series are all non-tradable transferable SBTs (Soul Bound Tokens) and are sold in a whitelist priced at 1 ETH, holders can receive at least 5% of the token distribution equity in the future, 50% unlocked by TGE on the same day, and gradually unlocked for the remaining 6 months. This round of NFT issuance is divided into 2 phases, the first phase (5000) is a retrospective phase, aimed at those who are actively involved in the Crypto industry (from individuals supporting key protocols to guiding local communities), and a small number of influential early believers distributed to the MegaETH community and various strategic partners, some of which are distributed in the form of free coinage. A week after its launch, MegaETH announced the completion of the first phase of its NFT offering. According to MegaETH's previous plan, the second phase of NFTs will be discovered a few months after the issuance of the first phase of NFTs, aiming to provide similar participation opportunities for users who continue to promote influential social and on-chain interactions for MegaETH. The difference in this round is that the quota will be allocated to Mega ETH's flagship accelerator program, Mega Mafia. Each team will receive a portion of the quota to distribute to their respective communities. A small portion of the quota in this round will be reserved for regular users through social media analytics. According to the MegaETH website, the latest community sale is open to all users who successfully authenticate on the Sonar platform and will use USDT on the Ethereum mainnet as a payment method, possibly a UK-style auction, and a fixed maximum price. Choose a 1-year lock-up period to receive a 10% discount on the final token price. All U.S. participants must be locked. Valuation logic: historical pricing, market expectations and core value The valuation evolution of MegaETH is closely linked to the financing process, market expectations, technological progress, distribution mechanism and ecology. Historical funding valuations: climbing from $100 million to $540 million As mentioned earlier, MegaETH raised nine-figure FDV in its $20 million seed round and $10 million Echo round in June and December 2024, respectively. In the first phase of the NFT offering in February this year, according to screenshots released by then-OpenSea marketing chief Adam Hollander, MegaETH publicly raised 4,964 ETH in the first phase of the NFT offering, which was worth $13.29 million at the time. The author calculates that this $13.29 million represents at least 2.5% of the token distribution authority, and it can be calculated that according to NFT fundraising, MegaETH's FDV was around $540 million at that time. Polymarket market forecast: 86% probability of hitting $2 billion FDV In Polymarket's “FDV after the first day of MegaETH's launch” prediction market, the probability of betting on FDV greater than $2 billion reaches 86%, the probability of betting on FDV greater than $4 billion is 57%, and the probability of betting more than $6 billion is 21%. This means that if MegaETH FDV reaches $2 billion, the first NFT holders will have a return multiple of 3.7 times (in US dollar terms), while the seed round and Echo round participants have more room for gain. Platform effect blessing: Sonar's first phase of the project's “money-making effect” The Sonar platform (Echo's platform founded by Cobie) where the community sale is located has its own traffic halo, and its first fundraising project Plasma performed brilliantly - TGE rose to 34 times the sales price ($0.05) on the fourth day, and it still maintains a 9-fold increase. This platform effect further…