DXY & Forex

Gate News message: On April 14, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the United States should "wait and see" before cutting interest rates.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual shareholder letter that a war with Iran could trigger persistent oil and commodity price shocks, creating inflation pressure that is stickier than the market expects, and that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain high interest rates for longer. He noted that the war’s economic impact is widespread, including a global restructuring of supply chains and rising energy prices. In addition, Dimon still holds a positive view of the U.S. economy, but warned that the economic shocks from the war could weaken that resilience.

The founder of Muddy Waters, Carson Block, after trying the AI tool Claude, shifted his view of the economic outlook from optimistic to pessimistic. He warned that AI replacing knowledge work will trigger a severe economic crisis, and has already started shorting ETFs in the credit market. He noted that 15% of knowledge work is about to disappear, and predicted it will lead to a contraction in consumption and a systemic crash. His move to restart the short-selling setup has drawn attention in the current market.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDTWD (US Dollar vs Taiwan Dollar) has dropped by 99% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

U.S. President Trump threatens to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, claiming China is preparing to deliver air defense systems to Iran. This has heightened tensions between the U.S. and China. Trump’s threat is largely political pressure, and implementation would require legal procedures. China denies providing military aid and calls for restraint. The incident shakes the market, drives up oil prices, and affects the outlook for cryptocurrency.

Latam markets are emerging as investment opportunities amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, unaffected by the global energy crisis. Currencies in Brazil and Argentina appreciate, and analysts predict increased funds from Asia, driven by high interest rates and resilient commodities.

On April 13, gold and silver prices fell to $4,732.92 per ounce and $74.209 per ounce, respectively. The BTC volatility index rose by 0.42%, and the ETH volatility index rose by 0.31%. The U.S. dollar versus the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen edged up slightly, major European stock indexes generally fell, while WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose. The Gate platform supports trading for multiple asset types.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Hong Kong has become a key hub for the movement of Iranian funds, facilitating up to $4.8 billion in financial transactions through shell companies to help Iran evade U.S. sanctions, including oil proceeds and military technology procurement. In addition, Hong Kong’s support has enabled Iran to use the “ghost fleet” to smuggle crude oil and to resist unilateral sanctions, prompting the United States to change its strategy and impose sanctions on the relevant companies.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDZAR (USD/ZAR) has surged by 1% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

On April 13, the precious metals market was under pressure, with gold and silver prices falling by 0.86% and 1.70%, respectively. The crypto market volatility index rose, the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan and the yen edged up, crude oil prices surged significantly, with WTI up 8.99%. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of traditional financial products.

The U.S. imposes a naval blockade on Iran, causing the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks to fall apart. Market risk sentiment intensifies, and Bitcoin drops to $71,000, with a 24-hour decline of 3.1%. Traditional market capital flows into safe-haven assets, and analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s future trend, with $70,000 support acting as a key level.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDKRW (US Dollar vs South Korean won) has surged by 0.5% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDKRW (US Dollar vs South Korean won) has surged by 0.5% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

The U.S. vice president, Vance, did not reach an agreement in the US-Iran negotiations held in Islamabad. The core dispute is that Iran refused the U.S. demand for a nuclear weapons commitment. The breakdown of the talks has increased geopolitical risk, affecting financial markets—especially crude oil and Bitcoin prices. Even though the negotiations were unsuccessful, both sides may still continue discussions, and the market will watch for further developments.

President Javier Milei reveals that Argentina's dollarization efforts face resistance from citizens who prefer using the peso. Despite allowing currency competition, adoption remains low, complicating Milei's economic reforms.

Central banks are now holding more gold reserves than valuation-adjusted US dollar reserves for the first time, with a $140 billion gap favoring gold. This shift reflects growing geopolitical concerns and the unreliability of dollar reserves, as central banks increasingly prefer gold amidst uncertainty.

The United States and Iran held historic direct talks on April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, marking the first high-level diplomatic contact since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The aim is to stabilize the ceasefire and seek a war-resolution solution. Both delegations are large in size, and Pakistan is serving as the intermediary. The negotiations are set against the backdrop of recent military clashes and their impact on global financial markets, and the market will closely watch developments.

Gate News message: On April 10, based on the CPI data released today, Citigroup Group’s economists initially forecast that the March core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve) month-over-month rate will be 0.3%. This figure is above the level implied by the Fed’s 2% year-over-year target, but it is better than February’s 0.4% increase. The Citigroup team noted that, compared with the PCE indicator favored by the Fed, core CPI has consistently shown an unusually small rise. They also need to factor in PPI data to make a more accurate forecast for PCE.

On April 10, the precious metals market was strong: gold rose to $4,773.60 per ounce, and silver rose to $76.364 per ounce. In the crypto market, volatility eased, the FX market saw the U.S. dollar weaken versus the Chinese yuan, and global equity indexes rose. In commodities, WTI crude oil rose while Brent crude oil fell. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial assets.

The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that in February, the core PCE price index rose 3.0% year over year, while overall PCE increased 2.8% year over year. Both figures are in line with market expectations, and inflation pressure remains stable. Even though people’s income has declined, consumer spending is still increasing, and the savings rate has fallen to 4.0%. The market’s view on the interest-rate cut path is somewhat neutral: inflation has not meaningfully worsened, but it has also not been dropping rapidly.