CITIC Securities: Inflection point of crude oil supply and demand may be approaching, strengthening the trend of cost pricing

On September 13th, Jin10 Data reported that weak demand and increased supply have led to a sharp drop in oil prices recently, and the global oil supply and demand balance may see a turning point in 2025. In the medium to long term, as the impact of geopolitical events gradually weakens and the supply and demand reach a basic balance, the oil price may return to the cost pricing stage. With reference to the cost of shale oil and the OPEC fiscal balance oil price, Brent crude oil price can form support at 60-65 USD/barrel. Considering the existence of partial geopolitical events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, and with the arrival of winter heating demand, the Brent oil price in Q4 2024 is expected to fluctuate between 65-75 USD/barrel, and in the medium to long term, it still needs to follow the OPEC supply release rhythm and partial geopolitical events disturbance.