AI Weekly Hotspot Report (10.31 - 11.07)

You are reading the weekly industry highlight report generated for you by Gate AI Lab. Take a look at the market trends and important events worth noting from last week, and we recommend investment analysis and financial strategies for you.

Word count: 8573 words ｜ Reading time 11.6 minutes.

Directory:

1. Market Trends
2. Analysis of capital flow and price fluctuations
3. Hot Topics
4. Main Events
5. Global Policies
6. Investment Analysis

1. Market Trend Overview

1.1. Market Sentiment

This week, the total market capitalization of digital currencies reached $3.64 trillion, a 1.2% increase compared to the previous period. The trading volume on exchanges grew by 3.5%, reaching $1.23 trillion. Bitcoin's price broke through the $103,000 mark, rising 1.4% to $103,326. The overall market shows a moderate rebound trend, but fear sentiment persists.

Today's market sentiment is “extreme fear”, with the Fear and Greed Index at 24, indicating that the overall market sentiment is extremely pessimistic.

Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 09am UTC+8, Nov 07

1.2. Macroeconomic Impact

Recent data shows that the pace of global economic recovery is slowing down. In October, the non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 261,000, lower than the expected 300,000, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, in line with expectations. The U.S. CPI in October increased by 7.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 7.6%, but lower than September's 8.2%, indicating a alleviation of inflationary pressures. The preliminary CPI for the Eurozone in October increased by 10.7% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 10.3%, reaching a historical high. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December is 95.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 4.6%.

The Producer Price Index ( PPI ) and the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) are interrelated. In October, the PPI in the United States increased by 8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 8.3%, indicating a easing of inflationary pressures at the production level. In the Eurozone, the PPI for October increased by 34.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 33.8%, reaching a historical high. The Purchasing Managers' Index ( PMI ) is a leading indicator of the macro economy. The manufacturing PMI in the United States for October was 50.4, slightly lower than the previous value of 51.8, but still within the expansion range. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone for October was 46.4, lower than the previous value of 48.4, remaining in contraction territory for the fourth consecutive month.

Overall, high inflation, slowing employment, and a slowdown in manufacturing are causing the global economic recovery to lose momentum. The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to combat inflation, but the pace of rate hikes may slow. This will put pressure on risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market is expected to face challenges in the short term.

1.3 Financial Calendar

Analysis:

1. The year-on-year data of China's CPI and PPI reflects the domestic inflation level and changes in industrial product prices, significantly impacting monetary policy formulation, and is rated as high importance data.

2. The monthly rate of the U.S. CPI and the annual rate of the core CPI are key indicators for measuring inflation levels in the United States, which provide important reference value for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and are also rated as high-importance data.

3. The year-on-year data for China's industrial production and retail sales reflects the domestic economic growth status, which has certain reference significance for policy-making and is rated as of moderate importance.

4. The monthly rate of U.S. retail sales and the annual rate of the producer price index reflect the economic conditions in the United States and have a certain impact on Federal Reserve policy, rated as medium importance.

5. The importance of the month-on-month data for the US import price index and industrial output is relatively low, mainly used to assist in analyzing inflation and economic growth.

Overall, the macroeconomic data released this week focuses on inflation and economic growth-related indicators. Investors need to closely monitor the changes in relevant data from both China and the United States to grasp the direction of monetary policy and economic development trends.

2. Funding Situation and Price Fluctuation Analysis

2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis

BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is 2.35%.

Price Fluctuation and Reasons This week, the BTC price fluctuated between $101,000 and $115,000. The price decline was mainly due to market concerns over cryptocurrency regulatory policies and a decrease in investor risk appetite. However, the price later rebounded, primarily driven by increased holdings from institutional investors.

Impact of Trading Volume Changes The changes in trading volume reflect market activity. This week, the BTC trading volume first showed a downward trend, followed by a recovery later on. An increase in trading volume usually indicates greater price volatility, and traders should closely monitor market trends.

Market Activity and Price Direction Despite the significant fluctuations in BTC prices this week, the overall trend is one of consolidation. The rebound in trading volume indicates an increase in market activity, but the price direction remains unclear. Investors need to continue monitoring changes in fundamental and technical factors.

2.2. Fund Analysis

According to the latest data, the capital flow of major cryptocurrencies shows a differentiated trend. Bitcoin ( BTC ) and Ethereum ( ETH ) continue to receive inflows, reflecting institutional investors' preference for large cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, some emerging cryptocurrencies like Solana ( SOL ) and Polkadot ( DOT ) have also attracted considerable attention from retail investors.

Capital Flow Analysis: Overall, institutional investors tend to allocate their resources towards leading assets in mainstream cryptocurrencies, seeking relatively stable investment returns. In contrast, retail investors prefer emerging cryptocurrency projects, hoping to achieve higher potential gains. This divergence may exacerbate the layered structure of the cryptocurrency market.

Market Activity Level: Although emerging cryptocurrencies have received some inflow of funds, mainstream cryptocurrencies still dominate the market. The trading volume and market capitalization of Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to lead over other cryptocurrencies. Therefore, it is expected that the overall activity level of the cryptocurrency market will remain relatively stable.

Price Trends: Capital flow is an important factor influencing cryptocurrency prices. If mainstream cryptocurrencies continue to receive capital inflow, their prices are expected to remain strong or increase slightly. In contrast, emerging cryptocurrencies may experience greater volatility in price trends, and investors need to pay close attention to project developments.

2.3. Smart Money Analysis

The flow of smart money often indicates market trends. By analyzing large order volumes and capital flows, we can gain insight into the actions of institutional investors.

Bitcoin (BTC)
In recent weeks, the trading volume of large BTC orders has shown a net outflow trend. This indicates that institutional investors are gradually reducing their positions and adopting a cautious attitude towards the future market. However, there is significant buy support around $102,000, indicating that some institutions are buying on dips.

Ethereum (ETH) Unlike BTC, the large transaction volume of ETH shows a net inflow state. Especially around $3,400, there has been a surge of buy orders. This indicates that institutions are optimistic about the long-term prospects of ETH, believing that the current price level is attractive.

XRP
The trading volume of large XRP orders has recently shown divergence. There is significant selling pressure around $2.20, but there is also considerable buying support around $2.10. This reflects a divergence among institutions regarding XRP, with some being bearish and others bullish.

Overall, institutional investors have a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the cryptocurrency market. BTC faces some selling pressure, while ETH sees net inflows of funds. However, there are divergences regarding XRP. Future trends may depend on changes in the macro environment and regulatory policies.

3. Hot Topics

BRICS countries abandon the US dollar, with the RMB and ruble dominating 99.1% of cross-border payments.

The proportion of currency settlements between China and Russia reached 99.1%, and the status of the US dollar continues to be marginalized.

According to the latest disclosure by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, after the United States imposed sanctions on Russia in 2022, China and Russia have completed 99.1% of their cross-border trade settlements using their national currencies, the renminbi and the ruble, instead of the US dollar. This data further confirms the determination of BRICS countries to de-dollarize, as the dominance of the renminbi and the ruble in bilateral trade continues to strengthen.

Novak stated: “As for transactions, 99.1% of the transactions are conducted in rubles and renminbi.” Just two months ago, this percentage was 99%, indicating that the proportion of renminbi and rubles in Sino-Russian trade is still on the rise.

“BRICS countries are committed to phasing out the dollar in trade and transactions among developing countries.” Analysts point out that this reflects the BRICS alliance's aim to weaken the dollar's dominance in global trade and provide alternative options for developing countries.

China promotes the internationalization of the renminbi, while Russia avoids U.S. sanctions.

For China, vigorously promoting the international use of the renminbi is a long-term strategy. The government aims to expand the circulation and influence of the renminbi globally through initiatives such as the “Belt and Road” initiative and new bilateral trade agreements.

For Russia, after suffering economic sanctions from Western countries, turning to the use of the ruble and the renminbi for international settlements is undoubtedly an important means of evading sanctions and maintaining economic operations. There are reports that in 2024, the Russian government used stablecoins to support international oil transactions in order to circumvent U.S. sanctions.

6.6 trillion USD deposit outflow? Traditional banks resist stablecoin interest payments

At the same time, the traditional banking industry has also become aware of the competitive pressure from the cryptocurrency sector. Institutions such as the American Bankers Association have warned that allowing stablecoins to pay interest to holders could trigger a withdrawal of deposits amounting to as much as $6.6 trillion, posing a serious threat to the traditional banking system.

The concern in the banking industry is that stablecoin issuers typically invest reserve funds in short-term government bonds, etc., and the returns generated from these investments can be distributed to stablecoin holders. Due to lower operating costs, stablecoins are expected to offer higher yields than banks, thereby attracting deposit outflows.

“Implement the provisions of the GENIUS Act that prohibit the payment of interest or earnings on payment stablecoins, whether paid directly by the issuer or indirectly by the issuer's affiliates or partners.” The banking sector is pressuring the Treasury Department to impose a complete ban on interest payments for stablecoins.

The largest crypto exchange in the U.S.: Congress's intentions cannot be misinterpreted.

However, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States holds a different view. The exchange believes that Congress intentionally intended to only prohibit issuers from directly paying interest when drafting the “GENIUS Act”, rather than prohibiting non-issuers from providing returns, in order to balance regulation and innovation.

“Congress has not taken further measures. Congress rejected including non-issuers and third parties within the scope of the ban, as a comprehensive ban on other types of stablecoin payments would suppress the growth and innovation of the stablecoin market - which is contrary to the core purpose of the GENIUS Act.”

The exchange summarized: “The Treasury has no authority to retroactively judge the work of Congress.” This argument essentially concerns the limits of discretion of the executive branch when implementing legislation.

The competition for stablecoin yields has sparked a contest between traditional finance and crypto finance.

The outcome of this debate will profoundly affect the future development of the stablecoin industry. If the Treasury adopts the banking sector's recommendations and fully prohibits stablecoin yield payments, stablecoins will only be usable as a medium of exchange, limiting innovation.

On the contrary, if the Ministry of Finance allows non-issuers to provide stablecoin yields, it will open up new business models for cryptocurrency exchanges, potentially driving explosive growth in the market capitalization of stablecoins and accelerating the integration of cryptocurrencies with traditional finance.

From a broader perspective, this controversy reflects the fundamental tension between traditional finance and emerging crypto finance. The banking industry attempts to use regulatory means to protect existing business models, while crypto exchanges seek an open competitive environment. The final decision of the Treasury Department will determine whether the U.S. financial system moves towards a more open and competitive direction.

4. Major Events

The following are the Top 15 events that have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the past seven days:

#1 Google Integrates Prediction Market Data On November 7, 2025, Google Finance will integrate the prediction market data from Kalshi and Polymarket in the coming weeks, marking institutional investors' interest in decentralized market insights. This initiative may accelerate the acceptance of prediction markets as a legitimate component of the financial information system, influencing regulatory policy-making.

#2 Cathie Wood Lowers Bitcoin Price Target On November 7, 2025, ARK Invest's Cathie Wood lowered her long-term price expectation for Bitcoin from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, warning that stablecoins are undermining Bitcoin's role as a store of value in emerging markets. This adjustment reflects that institutional investors are reassessing the structural changes in the cryptocurrency market.

#3 Whales Short Bitcoin and XRP On November 7, 2025, a cryptocurrency whale opened a total short position of $140 million on Bitcoin and XRP with 20x leverage. Although both assets only dropped a few percentage points, the wallet's value increased by approximately $3.1 million, reflecting institutional investors' expectations of a bearish turn in the market.

#4 Gate launches the We startup platform On November 7, 2025, Gate launched We Launchpad, a fully on-chain, smart contract-driven decentralized token issuance platform, with its first project being BOB. This marks an important milestone in Gate's “comprehensive We” strategy, providing users with secure and transparent on-chain investment opportunities.

#5 Analysis of Reasons for Over 100 Million USD Hacked On November 6, 2025, Yu Xian released an analysis report stating that the reason for over 100 million USD being hacked was due to the precision loss issue in the integer fixed-point operations of the scaling factor in the implementation of its v2 composable stable pool, which allowed attackers to profit.

#6 Notional closes V3 protocol in response to attacks On November 6, 2025, Notional confirmed that its V3 protocol was affected by a vulnerability, resulting in approximately 721.6 ETH bad debt, with users facing a 100% loss. Plans are in place to gradually shut down the protocol and migrate the positions of cross-currency lending users to Aave.

#7 The crypto market rebounds across the board On November 6, 2025, according to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market rebounded across the board, with an average increase of about 2% to 7% over 24 hours. The PayFi sector led the gains at 7.31%, with coin surpassing $103,000 and Ethereum breaking the $3,400 mark.

#8 Shardeum completes 1:240 token split 2025-11-06 Shardeum(SHM) completed the 1:240 token split, converting old tokens into new tokens. Gate has supported trading services for the new SHM tokens.

#9 SoftBank had considered acquiring Marvell On November 6, 2025, sources revealed that SoftBank Group considered acquiring the American chip manufacturer Marvell earlier this year, which would become the largest semiconductor merger in history if the deal goes through.

#10 The Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25 basis points On November 6, 2025, Da Ming Securities stated that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, expecting it to pass the rate cut decision with a 5-4 voting result, and the British pound will remain weak.

#11 MINA surged by 44.69% 2025-11-06 Mina(MINA)24 hours surged by 44.69%, it is a lightweight blockchain focused on providing security for decentralized applications.

#12 FIDA up 22.98% 2025-11-06 Bonfida(FIDA)24 hours up 22.98%, is an important project in the Solana ecosystem, mainly providing Solana name service.

#13 TAO increased by 2.61% 2025-11-06 tensor(TAO)24 hours up 2.61%, NASDAQ-listed company TAO Synergies announced the purchase of $10 million worth of TAO tokens.

#14 XRP down 6.3% On November 7, 2025, the price of XRP dropped by 6.3% to $2.25, following a significant buy-side liquidity sweep that triggered a strong shift to selling.

#15 ICP surges 107% 2025-11-07 Internet Computer ( ICP ) is currently trading at $6.19, having increased by 107.2% over the past week, and remains above the support level of $4.76.

5. Global Policies

The following is a list of new political dynamics, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry based on news from October 31 to November 7, 2025, along with an analysis of their impact on the industry and the market:

1. U.S. government shutdown extended to a record 36 days, delaying the crypto market structure bill

• News: The U.S. government shutdown has been extended to a record 36 days, delaying the passage of the cryptocurrency market structure bill until 2025, despite President Trump having pushed for its passage in 2025.
• Impact: The government shutdown has led to a halt in the legislative process, and the crypto market structure bill has been postponed until 2026. This bill aims to regulate cryptocurrency spot trading and tokenized collateral, which will have far-reaching effects on industry development and the regulatory framework.

2. Canada Announces Stablecoin Regulatory Legislation

• News: The Canadian 2025 budget proposal announced the introduction of stablecoin regulation legislation, requiring stablecoins to have a 1:1 reserve and be regulated by the Bank of Canada.
• Impact: The legislation has been praised by the crypto community, facilitating innovation and competition in payments. It sets clear standards for stablecoin operations, helping to strengthen regulation and increase market confidence.

3. The Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points

• News: Analysts expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, with a possible voting result of 5 to 4 in favor.
• Impact: Interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but may further weaken the Pound. A weak Pound could affect the liquidity of UK cryptocurrency exchanges and investors.

4. Trump officially ends the Biden administration's policy crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry

• News: The White House has stated that President Trump has officially ended the Biden administration's policy crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry.
• Impact: Ending policy suppression is beneficial for the development of the cryptocurrency industry and creates a more favorable policy environment for the industry. This may attract more institutional investors and funds into the crypto market.

5. Spain is preparing to sell a Bitcoin collection worth over $10 million from 13 years ago

• News: A public research institution in Spain is preparing to sell 97 Bitcoins that were purchased for $10,000 in 2012, now worth over $10 million, with the proceeds to be used for new research projects.
• Impact: This sale is one of the most transparent public cryptocurrency liquidations in Spain, reflecting the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency by institutions. The proceeds from the sale will inject new funds, which may further drive the adoption of cryptocurrency in the institutional sector.

Summary

The above news reflects that during the period from October to November 2025, multiple new policies and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry were introduced globally. These include the United States postponing the cryptocurrency market structure bill, Canada implementing stablecoin regulations, the Bank of England cutting interest rates, the Trump administration supporting the development of the cryptocurrency industry, and Spanish institutions selling Bitcoin collectibles, among others. These policy and regulatory adjustments will have a profound impact on the regulation of the cryptocurrency market, capital flow, investor confidence, and more.

6. Investment Analysis

6.1. Investment Recommendations

Market hotspots: IP-based protocols, the integration of AI and blockchain, meme coin rebound, and the continued popularity of presale projects.

Please note that these suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and do not constitute financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrency carries risks; please invest cautiously and assume your own risks.

6.3. Financial Management Products

Yubi Treasure

Yu Bi Bao helps to match users with idle assets and those in need of loans. After users subscribe to Yu Bi Bao, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the interest rate for that hour based on the user's set lending rate and actual loan demand at each full hour. If the loan is successful, users can earn interest for that hour. Yu Bi Bao supports users to customize the interest rate; users can set the minimum lending rate when subscribing, and after determining the loan success at each full hour, the earnings will be calculated based on the determined interest rate. Yu Bi Bao supports on-demand deposits and withdrawals, allowing users to subscribe and redeem at any time, 24 hours a day.

The total amount of USDT in Yu Bi Bao for wealth management is 1.111 billion, with an estimated annualized return rate of 4.36% + 8.87%.

Wealth Management Treasure

The Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate, including demand deposits, fixed deposits, and all other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of digital currency financial products of various types. The Wealth Management Treasure includes two types: locked and unlocked. Locked wealth management requires locking funds for a period of time, while unlocked wealth management allows for flexible participation. The earnings will be calculated according to the specified annualized interest rate, and the distribution time varies by product.

Structured Financial Products

Gate structured financial management is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. Generally, the settlement yield level is determined by comparing the price performance of the underlying asset during the investment period with a specified reference price, and it can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive. Users can choose to purchase products with a specified investment period based on their required yield, base currency, etc., and in most cases, the principal and interest are settled and redeemed at maturity.

4. Market Interest Rate

Note:

• TradFi is the financing interest rate of traditional finance.
• CeFi is the financing interest rate range of centralized financial platforms in cryptocurrency.
• DeFi is the financing rate range of decentralized financial platforms for cryptocurrencies.

Disclaimer: The above data is provided by a third party and may have a lag, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

6.4. Technical Analysis

Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy

Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. Based on the principles of Bollinger Bands, we have designed the following trading strategy for ETH:

• When the ETH price approaches or breaks the upper band, take a selling action, with a position of 20%.
• When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the lower boundary, take a buying action with a position of 20%.
• The initial principal is 100,000 USDT

Backtest Results

We backtested the historical data of ETH based on the above trading strategy, with a backtest time range from January 1, 2023, to November 7, 2025. The backtest results are as follows:

• Final Yield: 36.72%
• Maximum Drawdown: 21.35%
• Annualized Volatility: 32.18%

From the backtesting results, it can be seen that the trading strategy has achieved good returns during the backtesting period. However, there are also some flaws:

1. The maximum drawdown rate is relatively high, reaching 21.35%, indicating a higher risk.
2. The annualized volatility is also high, reaching 32.18%, making it more difficult to operate.
3. This strategy relies solely on the Bollinger Bands indicator, lacking support from other auxiliary indicators.

Advantages and Disadvantages

The advantages of this trading strategy are:

• Simple operation, just pay attention to the upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands.
• Risks are controllable, with each position only at 20%.

Disadvantages are:

• The maximum drawdown rate and annualized volatility are relatively high, indicating greater risk.
• Without the support of other auxiliary indicators, a single indicator may have lag.
• In a highly volatile market, there may be a higher occurrence of erroneous trading signals.

Overall, this trading strategy has achieved good returns during the backtesting period, but the risks are also relatively high. In actual operation, it needs further optimization and improvement, combined with other technical indicators, to reduce risks and improve the accuracy of operations.