Fluctuation Warning: The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff case on the 5th, tightening the nerves of global trade once again.

The U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Trump’s emergency tariff case on the 5th, once again triggering concerns over $160 billion in tax refunds and fiscal deficits, so investors should pay attention to short-term fluctuations. (Background: Are Trump’s tariffs at risk of becoming ineffective? The court ruled that Trump’s invocation of IEEPA for taxation was 'illegal,' and Washington responded: tariffs are legal and necessary.) (Supplementary background: The U.S. and Europe have finalized trade details: a 15% tariff on cars and semiconductors, with the EU set to buy $750 billion in energy products from the U.S.) The U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing on November 5 to examine the legality of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The final ruling may take some time, but the outcome will affect not only whether the President can exercise emergency powers to impose taxes but also the potential $160 billion in tax refunds, the balance of treasury income and expenditure, and global financial market sentiment. The executive and legislative branches are clashing directly in court. The focus of the case is that the IEEPA originally authorized the President to freeze assets or restrict trade in national security crises, but Trump has broadly interpreted it as having the authority to impose taxes on $300 billion worth of goods. Elizabeth Goitein, senior director at the Brennan Center for Justice, emphasized: 'Whether circumventing Congress for taxation becomes a routine means will be decided by this ruling.' Former appellate court judge Michael McConnell also pointed out: 'Taxation must be consented to by representatives of the people; this is the core spirit of the independent revolution.' However, the Justice Department insists that the 'trade crisis' constitutes an emergency situation, granting the President the right to intervene first, highlighting the sensitive balance of constitutional order between both sides. The pressure of $160 billion in potential tax refunds and dual fiscal effects If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the U.S. Treasury may need to refund $160 billion in tariffs already collected, which would be a heavy burden on the federal budget that has tightened due to rising deficits in recent years. According to Wells Fargo's assessment, tax refunds could force the Treasury to accelerate bond issuance, pushing up long-term Treasury yield rates. On the other hand, for businesses and consumers, if the $150–200 billion tariff cost is lifted, it would be equivalent to a large tax cut, temporarily stimulating imports and consumption. However, Macquarie Bank warns that the market will simultaneously digest messages of worsening deficits and rising pressures from the Fed, potentially causing a phase increase in capital costs. Trade policy may shift from fast ships to slow boats. According to JURIST, if the ruling limits the use of IEEPA, future Presidents will have to return to Congress to adjust tariffs through longer procedures under the Trade Act Section 301, significantly slowing policy maneuverability. Currently, the Trump team has indicated that they are considering using other tools to maintain pressure, but Alan Wolff, a researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, pointed out that the U.S. has never taxed under IEEPA in history; this time, regardless of victory or defeat, will redraw the line on emergency economic powers. This 'power test between the White House and Congress' is approaching its end; the ruling's outcome, no matter what, will throw shock factors into fiscal, interest rates, and stock and currency markets. Investors should be cautious of potential market fluctuations. Related Reports: The Sino-U.S. tariff war affects: Bitcoin mining company CleanSpark faces $185 million tariffs due to imported BTC mining rigs. The collective anxiety over semiconductor tariffs in Taiwan: What is the U.S. 'Section 232'? Bitmain will establish its first factory in the U.S.! In response to policy dividends and Trump’s tariff pressure, production is expected to begin in early 2026. <Fluctuation Alert> The U.S. Supreme Court will review Trump’s tariff case on the 5th, and global trade nerves are once again tense. This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.