Bitcoin’s Historic Pattern Flashes Again as Tom Lee Predicts $250K Surge Within 75 Days

Alex Mason links Bitcoin’s current phase to past nine-month cycles, marking month six as a key turning point.

Tom Lee projects Bitcoin could hit $200K–$250K within 75 days, citing strong Q4 trends and Fed policy shifts.

Merlijn notes a 55-month compression phase, suggesting tighter structure and potential for a major breakout.

Bitcoin may be entering its most decisive stretch yet, with analysts spotting a familiar cycle pattern that previously marked every major bull run. According to market analyst Alex Mason, Bitcoin’s rallies in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021 each lasted nine months, with a sharp bear trap forming in the sixth month. He noted that 2025 has now reached the same stage, suggesting the next few weeks could define Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Market Cycles Show Repeated Nine-Month Structure

Mason outlined that across four past cycles, Bitcoin followed an almost identical structure — a mid-phase correction before resuming strong upward movement. Each instance, he said, showed investors exiting too early before the final surge began. Notably, he pointed out that the timing once again aligns, making current market behavior comparable to prior pre-breakout periods.

Analysts often track recurring market rhythms to gauge investor psychology. In Mason’s view, the consistency of the nine-month duration highlights Bitcoin’s cyclical nature. He added that this pattern offers a clear timeline to assess whether the market is nearing its acceleration phase.

Tom Lee’s $250K Projection Aligns With Technical Targets

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee projected that Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 within the next 75 days. He cited strong fourth-quarter performance trends and the Federal Reserve’s recent dovish shift after months of tightening policy. According to Lee, those factors combine to form a favorable setup for a rapid upside move.

Lee’s outlook matches technical targets from strategist Mark Newton, who previously mapped similar resistance zones. Together, these projections point to strong bullish alignment between technical and macro factors. However, analysts continue to watch for follow-through in trading volume to confirm renewed momentum.

Merlijn Notes 55-Month Compression Phase

Separately, analyst Merlijn observed that Bitcoin has been consolidating for 55 months, calling it the longest compression in its history. He compared the current setup to a 30-month squeeze that preceded Bitcoin’s previous vertical breakout. This time, he said, the wedge pattern appears tighter, with a stronger foundation forming beneath price levels.

Merlijn stated that such compression phases often end with violent expansions once resistance breaks. His analysis, coupled with Mason’s cycle timing and Lee’s projection, frames a converging narrative — a market nearing a potential breakout window.

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