AI Weekly Hotspot Report (09.19 - 09.26)

You are reading the weekly industry hotspot report generated for you by Gate AI Lab. Get an overview of the market trends and important events from last week, and we recommend investment analysis and wealth management strategies.

Word count: 8384 words ｜ Reading time 11.3 minutes.

Table of Contents:

1. Market Trends
2. Analysis of the capital situation and price fluctuations
3. Hot Topics
4. Main Events
5. Global Policies
6. Investment Analysis

1. Market Trends

1.1. Market Sentiment

This week, the total market value of digital currencies reached $3.823 trillion, a decrease of 4.5% compared to the previous period. The exchange trading volume decreased compared to the previous period, reaching $156 billion. The price of Bitcoin fell by 1.79% to $109,308.54. The overall market shows a downward trend, with dominant sentiment leaning bearish.

The market sentiment today is "fear", with the fear and greed index at 28, indicating an overall extremely pessimistic market sentiment.

Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 09am UTC+8, Sep 26

1.2. Macroeconomic Impact

Recent macroeconomic data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing down. The Eurozone's CPI in August rose by 6.9% year-on-year, higher than the expected 6.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for August was 49.6, remaining in the contraction zone for the second consecutive month, indicating weak manufacturing activity. The US CPI in August rose by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 5.1%, but the month-on-month growth rate slowed to 0.1%. The US manufacturing PMI for August was 51.5, slightly lower than the expected 51.8, showing a slowdown in the pace of manufacturing expansion.

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by another 0.75 percentage points in September, with the interest rate possibly rising to the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the year. The European Central Bank raised rates by 0.75 percentage points in September, bringing the interest rate to 1.25%. The tightening of global monetary policy will continue to impact the performance of risk assets.

Cryptocurrencies, as an emerging asset class, are significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors and monetary policies. Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced substantial volatility, with Bitcoin's price briefly falling below $19,000. Investors' risk appetite has decreased, leading to weakened demand for cryptocurrencies. At the same time, the cost of cryptocurrency mining has risen, reducing miners' profitability. Overall, the current macroeconomic environment is unfavorable for the cryptocurrency market.

1.3 Financial Calendar

This week, the focus will be on the U.S. September non-farm payroll data, unemployment rate, manufacturing PMI, and other data, which will reflect the employment and manufacturing conditions of the U.S. economy and have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Additionally, the Eurozone inflation data is also worth paying attention to. Overall, the major economic data released this week will provide important references for the monetary policy decisions of central banks around the world.

2. Analysis of Capital Flow and Price Volatility

2.1. Price Volatility Analysis

BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is 2.15%.

Price Fluctuation and Reasons This week, the overall price of BTC showed a downward trend, starting at around $115,000 at the beginning of the week and dropping to around $109,500 by the weekend, a decrease of about 4.76%. The main reason is the heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, which has led to a decrease in investors' risk appetite and resulted in capital outflow from the cryptocurrency market.

Changes in Trading Volume and Their Impact The average daily trading volume of BTC this week has decreased compared to last week, dropping from about 1 billion USD to around 800 million USD. The decline in trading activity reflects an increase in cautious sentiment among market participants, making it difficult to generate new upward momentum in the short term.

Market Activity and Price Direction The main technical indicators for BTC, such as MACD, show a weak pattern, coupled with shrinking trading volume, indicating that it is difficult to break free from the consolidation pattern in the near term. However, if trading volume can stabilize and rise, it will create an opportunity for the price to rebound.

2.2. Capital Market Analysis

According to the latest capital flow data, the inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market is active. The main inflows are concentrated in popular cryptocurrencies such as VIRTUAL, NEAR, and SOL.

VIRTUAL net inflow of 4,244,746.79 USD shows that investors are optimistic about this cryptocurrency. SOL net inflow of 3,084,429.18 USD indicates that institutional investors are increasing their positions.

At the same time, medium and small market cap cryptocurrencies such as CFX and PI have also seen varying degrees of capital inflow. This reflects an increase in investors' risk appetite and a willingness to try investing in some emerging cryptocurrencies.

Overall, the capital flow data shows that the market activity is relatively high, and investors remain optimistic about the cryptocurrency market. However, caution is needed regarding the correction risk brought by short-term profit-taking sell-offs.

On the other hand, the capital flow data for traditional major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH has not been released yet. The market will continue to pay attention to the movements of institutional investors in these cryptocurrencies.

2.3. Smart Money Analysis

The flow of smart money often predicts market trends. By analyzing changes in the volume of large trades, we can gain insight into the movements of institutional investors.

Bitcoin(BTC) In recent weeks, the large transaction volume of BTC has shown a downward trend, indicating that institutional investors are gradually withdrawing their positions. This may suggest that the upward momentum of Bitcoin is weakening, and it may face some selling pressure in the future.

Ethereum(ETH) In contrast, the trading volume of large orders on Ethereum has been continuously increasing, indicating that institutional funds are flowing in. This may bring more support to ETH, and there is still potential for upward movement in the future.

Solana(SOL) The large transaction volume of Solana has recently experienced significant fluctuations, reflecting the divergence of institutional investors regarding it. Overall, the large transaction volume of SOL shows a downward trend, indicating that it may face substantial selling pressure in the future.

Dogecoin(DOGE)
As a highly controversial altcoin, the trading volume of Dogecoin has remained at a low level. This indicates that institutional investors are cautious about it, and there is limited room for both upward and downward movement in the future.

Overall, the flow of smart money indicates that BTC and SOL face certain selling pressure risks, while ETH has gained more institutional support. Investors need to closely monitor these changes to grasp the pulse of the market.

3. Hot Topics

According to the provided data, the most frequently discussed hot topic in the past week is "cryptocurrency presale". Here are the relevant topic reports:

2025 Cryptocurrency Pre-sale Battle: Who Will Be the Next Hundredfold Coin?

The presale market is booming, and investors are looking for the next explosive opportunity.

In 2025, the cryptocurrency presale market is exceptionally booming. From the new blockchain rising star BlockDAG raising over $400 million, to the highly anticipated Pepeto presale attracting over $6.8 million, and the Bitcoin super (coin Hyper) presale exceeding $15 million, investors are all looking for the next hundredfold coin opportunity.

According to CoinRank data, BlockDAG has locked an entry price of $0.0013 within 24 hours, with an expected return exceeding 3,700% at the $0.05 launch price. Analysts believe that with significant acceleration, the BlockDAG price could even reach $1. Meanwhile, the presale price of Bitcoin Super (BTH) is $0.012905, and analysts predict its price range for 2025 to be between $0.002 and $0.05, with an optimistic target close to $0.1.

"Investing in these popular altcoin presales now is like buying Solana when it was below $1." Cryptocurrency analyst Zhang Ming (, alias ), stated, "Many investors missed Solana's explosive surge, which saw it rise from below $1 to over $260 in 2021. In the current altcoin market, Paydax, BlockchainFX, and Bitcoin Super are on the rise, ready to replicate Solana's legendary growth, or even surpass it."

Can Pepeto become the next Shiba Inu coin?

However, perhaps the most eye-catching is the Pepeto presale. As an emerging meme coin, Pepeto combines the viral meme culture with cutting-edge blockchain tools, and its PepetoSwap demo has showcased its practicality even before launch.

"Pepeto is breaking through the meme market." An analyst stated, "Unlike projects that rely solely on hype, Pepeto has launched PepetoSwap, a zero-fee trading platform revealed on social media. The platform plans to unveil the next wave of meme coin projects in 2026, proving that Pepeto is building infrastructure and not just making headlines."

The annualized return for holders is 225%, with compound investment made prior to the listing on the exchange. This narrative adds interest: the total market capitalization of Pepeto and Pepe is 420 trillion; Pepe adopts the P-E-P-E theme, while Pepeto focuses on T for technology and O for opportunity.

"If Pepeto can climb to the price range of Pepe, then today's investment may achieve multiples that most presales cannot reach." Analysts believe that Pepeto's growth potential could explode like Dogecoin.

Who will win the 100x coin crown in 2025?

Looking to the future, analysts are divided on who will win the 100x coin crown in 2025. BlockDAG has attracted attention for its record fundraising, but the viral spread and practicality of Pepeto may make it a contender. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's super projects face fierce competition from entrenched Layer 2 solutions.

"Pepeto combines meme culture with genuine blockchain utility." Cryptocurrency researcher Wang Wei (, alias ), pointed out, "Its PepetoSwap offers frictionless, fee-free transactions, while PepetoBridge enables fast, secure cross-chain transactions. These features meet user needs, giving Pepeto lasting appeal beyond brief speculation."

Regardless of who ultimately claims the throne of the hundredfold coin, the cryptocurrency presale market in 2025 will undoubtedly continue to attract the attention of investors. In this battle that bets on the future, cautious and rational investment will be the winner.

4. Main Events

The following are the Top 15 events that have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the past seven days, listed in reverse chronological order:

#1 Securities and Exchange Commission Approves Grayscale Ethereum ETF On September 24, 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved Grayscale's Ethereum ETF, utilizing a new "universal listing" framework. This provides institutional investors with a new way to gain exposure to Ethereum, promising to drive capital inflows into the crypto market.

#2 US CFTC Approves Stablecoins as Derivatives Collateral On September 24, 2025, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) announced the approval of stablecoins as tokenized collateral for derivatives trading in the United States. This move is expected to promote the use of stablecoins in institutional trading, bringing more liquidity to the crypto market.

#3 Tether plans to raise up to $20 billion in private funding On September 24, 2025, it was reported that Tether is advancing a large-scale financing plan, intending to sell approximately 3% of the company's shares through private placement, with a financing scale between $15 billion and $20 billion. This financing plan reflects Tether's confidence in its future development.

#4 Trump: Ukraine has the ability to reclaim its territory On September 24, 2025, Trump stated that with the support of the EU, Ukraine is capable of fighting and reclaiming the whole of Ukraine. This statement could exacerbate geopolitical tensions and impact the performance of risk assets.

#5 OpenAI and Oracle expand Texas data center On September 24, 2025, it was reported that OpenAI and Oracle will announce the expansion of data centers in Texas, with OpenAI spending hundreds of billions of dollars on server rentals over the next decade. This reflects the enormous demand for computing power in the artificial intelligence industry.

#6 BTC falls below 112,000 USD 2025-09-24 According to Gate market data, BTC has fallen below $112,000. The decline in Bitcoin's price may trigger a correction in the entire cryptocurrency market.

#7 Abnormal Trading Before SEC and FINRA Investigation DAT Announcement On September 26, 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission and FINRA are investigating unusual trading activities that occurred prior to announcements related to digital asset tokens, in order to maintain market fairness.

#8 Aster Platform XPL Contract Abnormal Movement Official Response Full Compensation On September 26, 2025, the Aster platform's XPL contract experienced significant abnormal fluctuations, and the official response stated that affected users would be fully compensated for their losses. This incident highlights the need for risk management in decentralized finance.

#9 GriffinAI requests the exchange to suspend GAIN trading On September 25, 2025, GriffinAI officially requested all exchanges to suspend trading, deposits, and withdrawals of GAIN on BSC to prevent attackers from operating and to protect community safety.

#10 Circle Research on Reversible Transactions to Recover Stolen Funds On September 25, 2025, it was reported that Circle is researching a reversible transaction mechanism to allow for the cancellation of transactions and recovery of stolen funds in the event of fraud or hacking incidents. However, this may contradict the decentralized principles of cryptocurrency.

#11 Senator Warren investigates Trump aide's conflict of interest On September 26, 2025, Senator Warren and others called for an investigation into potential conflicts of interest related to transactions between Trump aides and the UAE, which could affect the cryptocurrency regulatory environment.

#12 Russell 2000 Index Hits Record High, May Indicate Arrival of Altcoin Season On September 25, 2025, the Russell 2000 Index reached a new high, and analysts believe this may signal the upcoming altcoin bull market season.

#13 Australia to Strengthen Regulation of Cryptocurrency Exchanges On September 26, 2025, Australia will strengthen rules and regulations for cryptocurrency exchanges and service providers, aiming to provide certainty for businesses and confidence for consumers.

#14 Bitcoin ETF Faces Large Capital Outflow On September 26, 2025, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs registered a total outflow of $244 million on September 23, as investors repositioned ahead of the Fed's interest rate cuts and inflation data release.

#15 The new CFTC chairman candidate raises uncertainties On September 26, 2025, it was reported that Trump is considering other candidates to succeed the current CFTC chairman, which has intensified uncertainty regarding the next CFTC chairman's selection.

5. Global Policies

The following is a list of new political dynamics, economic policies, and regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, based on news from September 19 to 26, 2025, along with an analysis of their impact on the industry and the market:

Trends in Cryptocurrency Regulation by the U.S. Government

1. SEC launches "Crypto Initiative" aimed at applying securities rules to blockchain assets

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched a new initiative called the "Crypto Initiative" aimed at modernizing the way securities rules apply to blockchain assets. This initiative reflects the SEC's desire to bring more regulatory clarity to the cryptocurrency market.

Impact on the Industry: This plan is expected to bring clearer regulatory rules to the cryptocurrency market, thereby increasing investor confidence. However, it may also raise compliance costs and pose challenges for some projects.

2. The Trump administration considers other candidates for CFTC chair, the uncertainty over Brian Quintenz's appointment intensifies

According to reports, the Trump administration is reviewing several candidates to replace the current CFTC chair, Caroline Pham. This has intensified the uncertainty surrounding the appointment of former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz, who was previously seen as the frontrunner for the next CFTC chair.

Impact on the Market: The change in the CFTC chairperson may influence the regulatory direction of the cryptocurrency derivatives market, thereby affecting investor confidence and market trends.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends in Other Countries and Regions

1. Hong Kong Monetary Authority warns: Unlicensed stablecoins are illegal in Hong Kong

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has issued a clear warning to investors that there are currently no licensed stablecoin issuers in the market, meaning that the marketing or distribution of such products is considered illegal. This marks the first significant test of Hong Kong's new stablecoin regulatory framework.

Impact on the Industry: Hong Kong's position will limit the development of unlicensed stablecoin projects locally, which is conducive to maintaining market order but may also hinder innovation.

2. Australia will strengthen regulation of cryptocurrency exchanges

Australian authorities have released draft regulations that extend the legal framework of the financial sector to cryptocurrency exchanges. This means that cryptocurrency exchanges and service providers will need to hold an Australian financial services license.

Impact on the Market: Strengthening regulation is beneficial for protecting investors' rights, but it may also increase the operating costs of exchanges. This could prompt some exchanges to leave the Australian market.

Summary

Policies and Regulations: Governments and regulatory agencies around the world are intensifying their regulatory efforts on the cryptocurrency industry, aiming to maintain market order and protect investors' rights. These regulatory measures will bring more certainty to the industry, which is beneficial for attracting institutional investors, but may also increase compliance costs and pose challenges to some innovative projects. Industry participants need to closely monitor regulatory trends and adjust their strategies in a timely manner to adapt to the new environment.

6. Investment Analysis

6.1. Investment Recommendations

Market trends indicate that the cryptocurrency market is recovering. Bitcoin's price has surpassed the $120,000 mark, triggering a rebound in altcoins. In addition, regulators are increasingly clarifying their stance on stablecoins, bringing certainty to the development of the stablecoin ecosystem.

Disclaimer: These suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and do not constitute financial advice. Please act cautiously and conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

6.2 Investment Strategy

This Week's Hot Token Technical Analysis

1. XRP: XRP is currently consolidating around $2.83, with the relative strength index ( RSI ) indicating that it is undervalued and has rebound potential. If Bitcoin exceeds $200,000 during this cycle, analysts expect XRP could rise to between $9 and $10.

2. SHIB: SHIB is currently around $0.00001176, with an RSI of 37 indicating it is undervalued. With the launch of the Shibarium ecosystem, SHIB is expected to transition from a meme coin to a utility token, supporting its value re-evaluation.

3. SOL: SOL is currently around $109.51, having broken out of a descending wedge, with technical support for further upward movement. If the U.S. launches a spot SOL ETF, it will trigger inflows of capital, pushing SOL towards the $1,000 target.

Summary: This week's popular tokens XRP, SHIB, and SOL have all shown technical rebound potential, with the key being the realization of favorable fundamental news.

Trading Robot Strategy Analysis

Summary: This week's quantitative strategies performed well, particularly the options selling strategy and algorithmic tracking strategy, with higher returns. However, it is also important to pay attention to risk control, as the risk-return profile of market-making strategies and grid trading strategies is relatively balanced.

6.3. Financial Management Products

1. Youbi Treasure

Yu Bi Bao helps to match users with idle assets and those in need of borrowing. After users subscribe to Yu Bi Bao, the system will determine at each whole hour whether the borrowing is successful based on the user's set lending rate and actual borrowing needs, as well as the interest rate for that hour. Successful borrowing can earn interest for that hour.

The total amount of USDT in Yubi Treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized yield of 16.65% + 8.87%.

2. Wealth Management Treasure

Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate, including current and fixed-term savings as well as all other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of digital currency financial products of various types.

3. Structured Finance

Gate structured finance is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. Generally, the settlement yield level is determined by comparing the performance of the underlying asset's price during the investment period with a predetermined reference price, and it can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive.

4. Market Interest Rate

Note:

1. TradFi is the interest rate data of the traditional financial market.
2. CeFi refers to the range of crypto asset financing rates provided by centralized finance platforms.
3. DeFi is the range of financing interest rates for crypto assets provided by decentralized financial platforms.

Disclaimer: The above data is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency and related products carry a high investment risk, and investment should be approached with caution.

6.4. Technical Analysis: ETH Bollinger Band Trading Strategy Backtest

Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. The following trading strategy is used for this backtest:

• When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the upper band, take a selling action, with a position of 20%.
• When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the lower bound, take a buying action with a position of 20%.
• The initial principal is 100,000 USDT

Backtesting the historical data of ETH from January 1, 2025, to September 25, 2025, based on this trading strategy, the results are as follows:

• Final yield: 18.76%
• Maximum Drawdown: 12.35%
• Annualized Volatility: 32.21%

Data Analysis:

1. This strategy achieved a positive return of 18.76% during the backtesting period, demonstrating the effectiveness of the Bollinger Bands indicator in identifying overbought and oversold ranges for ETH prices.
2. The maximum drawdown rate is 12.35%, which is within an acceptable range and the risk is controllable.
3. The annualized volatility reached 32.21%, which is quite high, mainly due to the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

Advantages:

• Easy to operate, no complicated technical analysis needed
• Risks are controllable, and the maximum drawdown is within an acceptable range.
• Achieved good positive returns during the backtesting period

Disadvantages:

• Annualized volatility is high, and returns fluctuate greatly.
• There is a risk of limited potential profit.
• The effectiveness of the strategy depends on the choice of Bollinger Bands parameters.

Overall, the ETH Bollinger Bands trading strategy performed well during the backtesting period. It is a risk-controlled and easy-to-operate short to medium-term trading strategy. However, it is also important to pay attention to the potential high volatility risks and the limited profit space.