Wall Street's Fed correspondent's September forecast: Unstoppable

The inflation figures for July in the US have further increased expectations for the Fed to make a rate rebate in September. Nick Timiraos has also joined the names indicating that the institution, which has kept rates steady for months, will cut rates.

Timiraos, known as the “Fed reporter” for the Wall Street Journal, made assessments following the inflation data for July.

“Not at a level to stop”

Timiraos stated that the limit for interest rate cuts has changed, especially after the latest non-farm employment figures, and he used the following expressions:

“The threshold for interest rate cuts changed after the non-farm payroll figures announced at the end of July. If inflation had come in too high today, we might not have seen an interest rate cut in September. However, while the data does not say ‘there is no inflation’, it is also not at a level that would halt an interest rate cut in September.”

In the Fed Watch Tool, which shows the market’s expectations from the Fed, the expectation for a 25 basis point rebate in September is priced at over 94%. This rate was around 85% in the morning hours.

Published: August 12, 2025 16:32Last Updated: August 12, 2025 16:37