77% Bitcoin will reach ATH by 2025

According to a mathematical analysis by financial expert Fred Krueger, Bitcoin has a 77% chance of reaching its all-time high (ATH) this year.

Your assessment is further validated when considering the predictions from other experts. They believe that the decline of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the increase in global M2 supply will be key factors driving the next bull run of Bitcoin.

Will Bitcoin reach ATH in 2025?

In a detailed post on X, Krueger applied the Brownian Motion (GBM) geometric model to estimate the likelihood that Bitcoin will reach an ATH of $108,000 by 2025 from its current price of nearly $85,000.

GBM is a mathematical model commonly used to simulate the behavior of asset prices in the financial field. This model assumes that the logarithm of asset prices follows Brownian motion with drift. Simply put, this means that asset prices have two components:

– Drift rate (: represents the expected return on an asset over time. Often expressed as a fixed percentage.

– Stochastic component )stochastic(: explains the volatility or unpredictability of asset prices. It is modeled as a Wiener process )that is random fluctuations(.

GBM is used in various financial applications, including option pricing, forecasting future asset prices, and assessing portfolio risk.

In his analysis, Krueger initially assumed BTC followed GBM with a drift of 0 and a volatility of 80%. The results obtained: the probability of Bitcoin reaching an ATH of $108,000 is 65%. However, he adjusted the model to incorporate the historical growth trend of this coin, applying a drift according to a power law of 40%.

"This has increased the mathematical rate to 77%. ChatGPT has run simulations and confirmed this result," Krueger said.

Krueger's revised forecast challenges the figures in the prediction market. According to data from Polymarket, the likelihood of BTC reaching an ATH before 2026 is much lower, at only 52%.

"This is wrong and can be traded in a price spread through flexible risk hedging," Krueger asserted.

Notably, this rate is even lower on Kalshi. Their prediction gives a 23% chance of Bitcoin reaching a new high of $150,000 in the same timeframe.

Meanwhile, sharing Krueger's optimistic view, another analyst predicts a strong upcoming bullish trend, pointing to a strong correlation with global M2 liquidity and the weakening of the US dollar.

"April will be the month that Bitcoin marks a complete bottom and starts a price increase. This has started from this week!" he wrote on X.

He emphasized that the global M2 liquidity reaching an ATH is a positive signal for Bitcoin, as Bitcoin usually reacts with a lag of 75 to 105 days. Additionally, the DXY index has dropped to its lowest level in 3 years, coupled with the inverse correlation between DXY and BTC, further increasing expectations for Bitcoin's growth potential.

"Now that M2 is increasing significantly, the next step is for profit capital to shift from gold to Bitcoin. This is happening and explains why Bitcoin has surged from the super cycle entry range of 74,000–76,000 to 86,000 dollars. Everything is happening as expected," he shared.

This analyst predicts that Bitcoin will have a short-term correction to $80,000 but remains optimistic in the long term. According to him, BTC could reach $550,000 to $650,000 by 2030, driven by currency devaluation and Bitcoin's fixed supply.

!)[bitcoin]https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-5d78dc6ca6f46d412de14e3decd4987a(BTC price chart 4 hours | Source: TradingviewCurrently, Bitcoin is trading about 22% lower than ATH and has increased slightly by 0.6% in the past day. At the time of writing, the price of BTC is around 84,616 dollars.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

• Strategy continues to buy Bitcoin, increasing the total BTC held to over 531,000
• NYDIG: The crypto market is relatively stable despite the chaos of Trump's tariffs.
• Metaplanet increases Bitcoin treasury to over 380 million dollars

Minh Anh

@media only screen and )min-width: 0px( and )min-height: 0px( { div[id^="wrapper-sevio-d89f58f5-7b63-40be-98c0-6b1fd62584fb"] { width:320px; height: 100px; } } @media only screen and )min-width: 728px( and )min-height: 0px( { div[id^="wrapper-sevio-d89f58f5-7b63-40be-98c0-6b1fd62584fb"] { width: 728px; height: 90px; } }