"Makeup" bull run: The fluctuations and breakthroughs of Bitcoin in 2025

The coin market in 2025 resembles a thrilling adventure movie with ups and downs. From the wild surge at the beginning of the year to the deep pullback in April, investors' hearts are racing along with the Candlestick Chart. Some say this is a "healthy adjustment" in the middle of the bull run, while others worry that the fangs of the Bear Market have quietly emerged. The road of this bull run is not easy.

1. "Makeup Classes" in Historical Cycles

The fourth Bitcoin halving will be completed in April 2024. According to historical trends, the 12-18 months following a halving often sees a price explosion. However, after surging to a high of $109,500 in January 2025, the market experienced a pullback of over 26%, marking the largest retracement of this bull run. On-chain data shows that this pullback is different from previous ones: long-term holders (LTH) did not engage in large-scale selling, and miner sell pressure remained at median levels, making the market appear more like a "technical correction" rather than a panic-driven collapse.

Standing at the key node of the cycle, the teaching chain used a large space to review and study the "power law model" again. The model reveals an interesting phenomenon: at the historical average rate, bitcoin should have rushed to $120,000 at this time, but in reality it corrected back to the 80,000 range. This kind of "make-up class after rushing" is not only a digestion of the rapid rise in the early stage, but also makes room for subsequent accumulation. Just like the two 40% pullbacks in the 2017 bull market, which seemed dangerous, they actually paved the way for the final crazy sprint.

2. The Pull of Three Forces

The continuation of a bull run has never been determined by a single factor, especially in the market of 2025.

1. Halving Effect and Institutional Entry

The effects of supply contraction after the halving are still fermenting, but the entry of institutional players has changed the game rules. The ETF fund flows from giants like BlackRock and the continued accumulation by MicroStrategy have gradually detached Bitcoin from the volatility pattern of the "retail market." However, institutionalization also means that the market has increased correlation with the US stock market — the fluctuations of the Nasdaq index will directly amplify the price fluctuations of coins.

2. The "Seesaw" of Macroeconomic Policy

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are like a double-edged sword. The interest rate cut cycle that started in Q4 2024 released liquidity, but the risk of recurring inflation looms large. In March, the news of the U.S. pausing the increased tariffs on China once stimulated a 12% surge in U.S. stocks, but then the Trump administration's 125% tariff threat instantly cooled the market. This policy oscillation has forced Bitcoin to jump back and forth between the identities of "risk asset" and "safe haven asset."

3. The Game of Technical Analysis and Sentiment

$80,000 has become the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it can hold this support, technical analysts believe it will open a channel towards $120,000 to $150,000; however, on-chain data shows that some short-term holders have their cost basis concentrated around $83,000, and a rebound to this level may trigger selling pressure. Market sentiment has also been like a roller coaster — the Fear and Greed Index dropped from neutral to panic, only to suddenly rebound back into the greed zone due to favorable policy news.

Three, how many thorns are ahead?

The story of the second half of the bull run is likely to be one of progress amid twists and turns.

Risk One: Macroeconomic Black Swan

The escalation of trade friction between the US and China, capital inflow triggered by the Japanese yen's interest rate hike, and the probability of a US economic recession climbing to 40%—any one of these could be the "last straw that breaks the camel's back." Historical data shows that when the S&P 500 has a quarterly decline of over 5%, Bitcoin has a 73% chance of falling as well.

Risk 2: Variations in Cycle Rhythm

Although most analysts predict that the bull run will last until Q3-Q4 of 2025, a market led by institutions may change traditional cyclical patterns. For example, the miner capitulation index has not yet reached the "bottom signal" of 0.85, indicating that the adjustment is not over; if the Trump administration's Bitcoin strategic reserve plan is implemented, it could become a new catalyst.

Risk Three: Liquidity Trap

The US dollar index plummeted to 100, and gold surged to a new high of 3210 dollars, reflecting global capital's anxiety towards the traditional system. If Bitcoin wants to attract this portion of funds, it needs to prove itself not only as "digital gold" but also as the ultimate store of value that transcends geopolitical politics—however, regulatory uncertainty remains a hurdle.

4. Is it the darkness before dawn, or the curtain call of dusk?

The divergence in the market has never been so obvious. Optimists see a "golden pit": the valuation of Bitcoin after the pullback is more reasonable, and the return of ETF funds and increased institutional allocation could drive it to reach $150,000 to $200,000 in Q3; pessimists, on the other hand, are closely watching the risk of a "double bottom," believing that once the $80,000 defense line is breached, it will slide down to $70,000 or even lower.

The power law model provides another perspective: if Bitcoin returns to its historical average trajectory, it may converge at $100,000 in July-August, initiating a bull run. However, as the teaching chain states, "any widely known model will fail due to reflexivity"—the level of craziness in the market ultimately depends on the struggle between human nature's greed and fear.

Final Admonition

The bull run of Bitcoin has never been a straight line. The ban from five ministries in 2013, the halt of ICOs in 2017, and the clearance of mining farms in 2021, each seemingly fatal blow ultimately became the starting point of a new cycle. The story of 2025 may well echo the old saying: "Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, mature in optimism, and die in euphoria." Right now, it is walking on the tightrope between "skepticism" and "optimism."

For ordinary small investors, perhaps it should be remembered: buying the dip is just the beginning, holding onto the big coin is the real practice. After all, in the world of Bitcoin, living longer is more important than running fast.