The three real “landmine checks” for BTC over the next 10 days
On October 28, most likely nothing will happen.
The CME data is right there—there’s a 90.6% chance rates will remain unchanged in October, and less than a 10% chance of a hike. The market has long since priced in “no move this time.”
You know Warsh’s habit since taking office: no forward guidance. He probably won’t say “we’ll see in December” at the press conference, nor will he say “inflation is still too high.” He’ll say a bunch of things that leave you guessing.
So the October 28 “no hike” isn’t a dovish victory. It hands the detonator to December.
The probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December is already 74.8%. Goldman Sachs has a more specific view: most officials support hiking at every other meeting, once in December and again next March.
October 28 isn’t the starting gun. It’s the act of chambering a bullet.
October 29: Strategy earnings.
Everyone is guessing “how much more BTC did MSTR buy?” That doesn’t matter at all.
What matters is the 848,500 bitcoins, at an average price of $75,446, with a total cost of $64 billion. Where is BTC now? Around $80,800; 81000 has fallen from support to resistance, and the hourly chart is in a clear downtrend.
In other words, Strategy’s paper-profit cushion is down to less than 7%. A little more downside, and the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury company will see its narrative shift from “paper gains” to “paper losses.”
More worth watching: financing buybacks of preferred shares (STRC) are eating into cash flow. That week in October, the company raised $22 million through an ATM offering of common stock to buy BTC, while spending $193 million of its own cash to buy back STRC preferred shares.
BTC is an asset; STRC is a liability. The asset is rising, while the liability is burning cash. Earnings are a health check, not a buy signal.
November 3: midterm elections.
Ali Charts gave a very alarming set of numbers: across the four midterm election cycles of 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively.
But he immediately followed that with something many people selectively ignore: correlation does not equal causation.
The real risk has never been the “election” event itself.
It’s pre-election risk aversion colliding with highly leveraged longs in the market. Amid risk aversion before and around the election, highly leveraged longs and panicked retail investors are highly prone to a cascade of liquidations, handing over bloodied chips during the drawdown in the 30 days after the election.
The election isn’t the cause of the drop. It’s the one handing the drop a knife.
The October 28 no-hike decision removes the uncertainty of “policy suspense”—but does so by hanging December’s knife even higher.
The October 29 earnings report removes the uncertainty over “whether Strategy can still hold up”—but does so by showing everyone that the cushion has thinned.
The November 3 election removes the uncertainty of “political risk”—but does so by first flushing out leveraged longs before the outcome is finalized.
Each event’s resolution removes a layer of uncertainty. But the way it does so will most likely be by triggering a liquidity-driven sell-off first.
Last week’s Glassnode data: the vulnerability of the long liquidation zone below is greater than that of the short liquidation zone above, with another liquidation cluster around $75,000.
The market isn’t selling “expectations”; it’s selling “confirmation.”
Over the next 10 days, the real thing to watch is whether 81,000 can reclaim its footing. If it can’t, the liquidation cluster at $75,000 is the next level to be tested. If it does, that invalidates the short-term downtrend, and then we can talk about the rest.
Clearing landmines means first making sure there’s no mine underfoot, then deciding where to go.
Not charging ahead first and then praying the ground is flat.
#美股财报季 #GateWCTCS9全球交易赛 #美国消费者信心接近历史低点 $BTC $ETH $SOL 
