The market is now arguing again about whether to crash in May.
Honestly, just talking about "sell in May" doesn't mean much; the key is how the current position moves.
BTC is now stuck around 76,000, to be honest, this isn't a comfortable position.
Above, around 80,000, there's constant pressure; below, if 76,000 is lost, it's easy to drop straight to 72,000 or even lower, with little strong support in this range.
I personally care more about a few points:
1) Recently, ETF activity isn't as aggressive as before; it's not outflows, but there's no obvious acceleration either.
The most concerning thing is that no one is willing to take over slowly.
2) The market has been sideways at high levels for too long; this sideways movement isn't strong, but it’s draining the bulls’ patience.
Once a breakdown occurs, sentiment can change very quickly.
3) There are no particularly new positive macro signals; instead, the market has already priced in many things in advance.
So I don't think this is just the May curse; it’s more like a structural correction that was already due, just coinciding with the timing.
If 76,000 can repeatedly recover, it’s just oscillation and shaking people out, continuing to grind;
But if it effectively breaks down, this wave might not be a small correction but a significant adjustment.
In this kind of market, don’t rely too much on narratives; watch the position.
Position is more honest than stories.
#BTC # Crypto Market #Market Judgment
Honestly, just talking about "sell in May" doesn't mean much; the key is how the current position moves.
BTC is now stuck around 76,000, to be honest, this isn't a comfortable position.
Above, around 80,000, there's constant pressure; below, if 76,000 is lost, it's easy to drop straight to 72,000 or even lower, with little strong support in this range.
I personally care more about a few points:
1) Recently, ETF activity isn't as aggressive as before; it's not outflows, but there's no obvious acceleration either.
The most concerning thing is that no one is willing to take over slowly.
2) The market has been sideways at high levels for too long; this sideways movement isn't strong, but it’s draining the bulls’ patience.
Once a breakdown occurs, sentiment can change very quickly.
3) There are no particularly new positive macro signals; instead, the market has already priced in many things in advance.
So I don't think this is just the May curse; it’s more like a structural correction that was already due, just coinciding with the timing.
If 76,000 can repeatedly recover, it’s just oscillation and shaking people out, continuing to grind;
But if it effectively breaks down, this wave might not be a small correction but a significant adjustment.
In this kind of market, don’t rely too much on narratives; watch the position.
Position is more honest than stories.
#BTC # Crypto Market #Market Judgment
BTC-0.67%
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