This round of US-Iran negotiations, the United States almost conceded the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran successfully gained control over the pricing of Strait shipping, equivalent to holding 20% of global oil transportation influence. So, on May 31, Trump overnight halted the established process, demanding a comprehensive revision of all core agreement terms, directly erasing Iran’s key rights and overturning the negotiation results from the past few days. This is no longer a routine bargaining negotiation; it’s a complete reset of the negotiation landscape.
At this point, do you think there’s still room to talk?
I’ve scoured all channels for the latest updates, which are as follows—
The US-Iran negotiation documents have reached a preliminary consensus on core terms: Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for the US unfreezing $12 billion within 60 days, with nuclear issues to be discussed later. But starting May 31, the situation sharply deteriorated: both sides hardened their positions simultaneously. Trump questioned the scale of the unfreezing funds, and proposed modifications have been submitted to Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy publicly declared “The Strait of Hormuz remains closed,” and issued a stern warning.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin explicitly stated on May 30—“If no agreement can be reached, the U.S. is prepared to restart strikes against Iran.”
By around 7 a.m. on June 1, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard announced: U.S. forces attacked a communications tower on Siriq Island in Hormozgan Province, Iran then retaliated against U.S. airbases, destroying the targeted facilities.
Throughout the weekend, negotiations involved back-and-forth proposals, each step edging closer to military confrontation. What’s being discussed—“peace framework”—is all smoke; what’s in hand are missiles.
Let’s talk about oil prices first.
The expectation that the US-Iran talks would “soon reach an agreement” in May temporarily pushed oil prices down by a few dollars. But as this disagreement publicly tore apart—WTI has surged to over $110. The market completely did not price in Iran’s oil returning. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global commercial oil inventories have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly 10 years.
Meanwhile, Citibank’s latest report set a near-term target price of $120 per barrel, with a bullish scenario potentially hitting $150 per barrel.
It’s not “possible” to break $100—it could happen within days if things accelerate.
Because Lloyd Austin has already said, “This is not Iraq, nor will it be an endless war”—translate that: fight if you must, no matter the outcome. Trump has also increased troop deployments in the Middle East and stated that if no agreement is reached, “the Department of War will intervene,” claiming “we will end it in another way.” Once military action truly begins, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely sealed, and oil prices won’t just be “rising”—they’ll be “flying.” An analyst directly pointed out—any military conflict threatening shipping routes could surpass everything else, with oil prices potentially soaring 30% within days.
Some might say, don’t be so hasty, maybe a “ceasefire agreement within 50 days” will change the situation?
My judgment is: under the current framework, Iran’s most core demands are control over oil pricing and key influence over the global energy supply chain. This is the fundamental reason why Trump directly threw a tantrum—America has no retreat. “Hand over global oil pricing control” equals giving up the core pillar of dollar hegemony. This step, they will never accept, not even a little.
So, what does this mean for BTC?
Simply put, global institutional funds are currently cashing out at high levels.
The data is clear: Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows in May were about $2.3 billion, the largest monthly outflow since 2026; as of now, the ETF has recorded 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows, redeeming nearly $3 billion, and capital flows in 2026 have turned from positive to negative. The Fear and Greed Index is at 35, indicating market sentiment is in “fear.”
What does this mean? Institutions are leaving, and you’re still bullish?
At the same time, what’s even more worrying—Santiment data shows that the ratio of bullish to bearish comments on Bitcoin has surged to 2.23, the highest since 2026, with extremely optimistic sentiment. The divergence of “retail investors bullish, institutions retreating” is often a precursor to market reversals.
This is what “Little Sweetheart has turned into the Cow Lady”—when even Wall Street market makers stop playing with you, do you still think BTC will hit 100k tomorrow? Wake up, both of you, wake up.
Finally, a fact.
This disagreement isn’t about whether concessions can be made on “details of the terms.” It’s a deeper issue: dollar pricing control and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Neither of these will budge. Global oil settlements must be in dollars—that’s the bottom line for the U.S.
So, this negotiation isn’t something both sides can just sit down and end with a meeting. It’s two major powers testing each other with blades.
Iran also understands this. That’s why they issued the “Strait of Hormuz closed” statement, pushing the pressure back. And this will directly lead to one result: oil prices rising without limit.
BTC will continue to be suppressed under this dual pressure of geopolitical tensions and capital flows.
Hold your hand.
Don’t touch derivatives. Don’t use high leverage. Lower your position risk. This isn’t FOMO time; it’s a “wait and see” cycle—watch the sky, whether it rains or not, to decide if you can eat tonight.
And every $1 increase in oil price adds more macro pressure on BTC. Each step up in oil prices short-term causes capital to flow out
#Gate正式推出股票交易 of the crypto market.
