SpaceX Raises More Than 4 Times as Much—But Optical Modules Crash Overnight
—Can your AI positions still hold up?
On one side, the IPO frenzy is so intense it breaks heads; on the other, the industry chain is bleeding out.
Last night, the U.S. stock market put on a split-screen drama.
First, the good news: SpaceX’s IPO subscription demand exceeded $250 billion, while its fundraising target was only $75 billion—4x oversubscribed. OpenAI secretly filed paperwork, and Anthropic raised $35 billion. The three major AI giants lined up to go public, and the primary market went absolutely wild.
Now, the bad news: the optical module sector collapsed across the board. Marvell fell 15%, AAOI dropped 16%, Coherent slid 15%, and AMD fell 10%. The Nasdaq plunged 3.5%, and $2 trillion in market value vanished overnight.
Why? A SemiAnalysis report: Nvidia’s 800VDC power architecture was delayed, and CPO (co-packaged optics) commercialization has been pushed back. Overnight, the technical roadmap was repriced.
Reconstructing the scenario:
Last week, you were still bragging in the group about “the AI revolution—compute power is king,” holding a bunch of AI concept stocks and Bitcoin, happily waiting for them to double.
Today at the open: optical modules were cut in half, the Nasdaq crashed, and BTC shuddered too.
You open your account—on the left, your AI stocks are green enough to make you panic; on the right, your crypto assets are also wobbling. You’re completely stunned: what should I do—buy the dip, or run?
This split-market move reveals a harsh truth:
The frenzy in the primary market and the collapse in the secondary market aren’t contradictions. They’re two sides of the same coin.
The primary market is buying “future stories”—headline names like SpaceX and OpenAI, where imagination and narrative alone can pull in huge capital. But the secondary market can’t wait anymore. It wants technology that can land now, orders that can be shipped, and profits that can actually be made.
If CPO is delayed by a year, then the optical module’s performance will have to be pushed back by a year too. The stock price drops first to show respect.
“Primary market pays for dreams, secondary market pays for delays—the worst off are retail investors who think they’re betting on both sides, only to get hit from both ends.”
If you hold both AI concept stocks and crypto assets at the same time, what should you do?
My advice: dismantle your “double leverage.”
AI concept stocks and crypto assets look unrelated on the surface, but in reality they share the same fragile weakness: liquidity sensitivity.
Nasdaq crashes → risk appetite shrinks → BTC takes pressure as well. This isn’t a coincidence; it’s a script repeatedly validated since 2024.
If you hold both right now, it’s like placing two bets on the same “macro negative” headline. Once CPI comes in hotter than expected and the Federal Reserve turns hawkish, both sides dive together—and you don’t even have room to hedge.
Specific execution ideas:
Trim positions in high-flying AI concept stocks, especially those supported purely by “delayed narratives,” such as optical modules and power equipment. Technical delays aren’t small issues. Institutions will revalue—don’t catch a falling knife.
Keep crypto assets, but reduce leverage. The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq in this round is declining. If an AI crash causes funds to flow out of U.S. stocks, some of that money could flow into crypto as a hedge—this is the only logic that could let you experience a “blessing in disguise.”
Use part of your position to go long on “primary market sentiment”—for example, by participating in SpaceX-style targets through private funds or pre-IPO shares (if you can get them). What big institutions are rushing for won’t cool down in the near term.
“In a split market, the dumbest strategy is ‘believe both sides,’ and the smartest strategy is ‘don’t believe either side—only trust cash.’”
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