$74 SOL, did you cut your losses?
First look at the surface: painful, but starting to firm up.
In the past month, it has fallen 15%, down 40% year-to-date, but from a 7-day perspective, it has quietly risen 7%. 24-hour trading volume is 2-2.2 billion, market cap is 42.6 billion, ranked 7th. The candlestick chart shows: the 4H timeframe just broke through the downtrend line, standing above EMA34 and testing EMA89, with the 73-75 resistance zone repeatedly rubbing — this is a typical early bottom structure.
First thing: you’re still in fear, Morgan Stanley has already taken action.
Morgan Stanley has submitted an application for a SOL spot ETF, with fees as low as 0.14%, one of the lowest in the market.
Another signal: on-chain monitoring detected large single buys of over $16 million worth of SOL. Although some are also transferred to exchanges, the overall accumulation signal is stronger.
Second thing: Alpenglow upgrade, this is the real nuclear bomb.
Alpenglow is expected to launch mainnet in Q3 2026, with community support over 98%. The core change is: transaction finality reduced from 12 seconds to 150 milliseconds.
DeFi high-frequency trading, on-chain gaming, payment scenarios — all can be commercially implemented.
Meanwhile, ecosystem data has already warmed up:
RWA TVL exceeds 2.8 billion, a new high in history.
Stablecoin supply is 16.4 billion, a record.
Solana becomes the official sponsor of the 2026 WSOP, supporting zero-fee crypto entry.
Third thing: a critical technical signal has appeared that must be paid attention to.
The 4H chart has broken through the downtrend line, forming a bullish reversal pattern.
What does this mean? The bearish trend has been broken.
Currently, it is gathering strength below the key resistance zone of 73-75.
Once volume increases and it stabilizes above 75, the target is directly 80-85.
Strong support at 63-65, secondary support at 60-62.
Long and short battles, see for yourself.
One side (bullish reasons):
Morgan Stanley ETF application, institutional channels open.
Alpenglow upgrade launching in Q3, performance revolution.
4H breakout of the downtrend line, technical turn to bullish.
Stablecoins over 16.4 billion + RWA new high, ecosystem in use.
The other side (bearish reasons):
Fallen from ATH 294 to 74, confidence destroyed.
BTC fluctuating around 64k, market direction unclear.
Some large holders transferring to exchanges, short-term selling pressure exists.
75 resistance tested three times, may revisit again.
Key position near 75 is a dense trading zone, unlikely to pass in one go.
Resistance above: 75 → 80-85 → 100.
Support below: 68-70 → 63-65.
Spot trading strategy:
Small positions around 74 for testing.
Add on dips to 68-70, heavy position at 63-65 (core support).
Target 80-85, then look for 100+ after breakthrough.
Stop loss below 62.
Aggressive/band trading strategy:
Chase longs on volume breakout above 75, target 80-90.
Leverage controlled at 2-5x, position no more than 20% of total funds.
Long-term believers:
Start dollar-cost averaging below 70.
Alpenglow landing + ETF approval, target 100-150 in late 2026.
SOL’s fundamentals are top-tier among L1s, every major correction is an opportunity.
SOL now is like ETH in 2023 —
Everyone said “L1 is dead,” “SOL will go to zero,” but once ETF expectations came, it shot from 20 to 100 directly.
In a bull market, the most expensive thing isn’t chips, it’s the courage to stay in at the bottom and not be scared away.
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