Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Do you want to get on board with ONDO at $0.37?

First, look at the surface: a barrage of positives—yet the price didn’t rise; it actually dipped, and now it’s finally holding strong.

In the past week it rose 13-17%. It rebounded strongly from a $0.31 low point, and 24-hour trading volume has clearly expanded. The candlesticks tell you: the $0.31-$0.34 support zone has been defended multiple times, breaking out of a descending channel and forming higher lows. The bottom is already in—an upside breakout is near.

First thing: Perps are live—RWA assets can finally “play with leverage.”

On July 7, Ondo Perps entered public testing, allowing tokenized stocks to be used as collateral. You can trade US stock/ETF/commodity perpetual contracts with up to 20x leverage. On day one, trading volume surpassed $100 million; in 48 hours it reached $2 billion.

This is a kind of gameplay the RWA track has never had. While others are still telling stories, Ondo has already shipped.

Second thing: institutional-grade compliance—this dark horse has become a giant.

In partnership with Broadridge, it launched the first compliant custodial tokenized securities in the US, participating in the DTCC working group (on par with BlackRock and JPMorgan). It will start Russell 1000 stocks/ETFs and US Treasuries pilot in July, then go fully live in October.

BlackRock’s IVV ETF and Micron stock are already on-chain, with multi-chain deployment covering Ethereum and Solana. The SEC investigation is concluded with no charges— in crypto terms, this means “official certification.” Tokenized stock market share is 58-70%—the absolute RWA leader.

Third thing: a technical signal appears that you must take seriously.

Rising from a $0.20 bottom to $0.48, then pulling back to $0.31, and now rebounding to $0.37—this is a textbook reversal pattern: a second bottom plus a higher-lows structure.

But $0.38-$0.40 is the 200-day EMA and the previous heavy-accumulation zone, which has already suppressed the price for two months. This is the fourth push—does it finally punch through directly, or does it get smashed back again?

Bull vs bear—you decide.

One side is:

Perps launched; in 48 hours trading volume broke $2 billion, real adoption

Institutional endorsements: BlackRock, DTCC, Broadridge compliance at the institutional level

RWA track leader with market share close to 70%, SEC investigation cleared

From $0.31, volume-backed rebound; technical bottom structure is intact

The other side is:

Total supply is 10 billion, but circulating supply is only 4.87B—unlock pressure is huge

Tokenomics has not yet captured protocol revenue (fee switch expected H2 2026)

$0.40 failed three times—major psychological pressure level

If macro data turns hawkish, high-beta coins will be hit first

Key levels

Upper resistance: $0.38-$0.40 (200-day EMA + psychological barrier) → $0.44-$0.49 (May high) → $0.55+

Lower support: $0.31-$0.34 (deep-bottom demand zone) → $0.27-$0.29

For short-term players:

Buy in batches at $0.32-$0.34, stop loss at $0.30. First target: sell half at $0.38-$0.40. After a breakout above $0.40 on volume, chase longs with stop loss at $0.37, looking for $0.45-$0.55.

For swing traders:

Wait for the daily close to hold above $0.40 before entering from the right side, use dynamic take-profit to hold on, target $0.70+ (if macro + fundamentals resonate).

For long-term believers:

DCA blindly below $0.34. RWA is the first stop for institutions, and ONDO is the absolute leader at this stop. The target by end-2026 is $0.70-$1.00—betting on Perps continued volume expansion + DTCC fully going live in October + Fee Switch rolling out. But remember—only go overweight once $0.40 is truly broken; it’s safer only after it holds.

Right now, ONDO is like SOL in 2024—

99% of people think “RWA is fake demand,” but then BlackRock personally steps in and institutional capital floods in like crazy.

On the day $0.40 breaks through, you’ll find out:

Turns out RWA isn’t bad—it’s that you’ve always been cutting losses at the bottom. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $ONDO

Central bank reserves are long-term; long-term they are a positive tailwind.
They have much less to do with short-term price action.
But in the near term, the downside room is limited.
You should know that the world’s major non-US central banks began stockpiling gold with the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
Back then, the U.S. froze and sanctioned Russia, prompting some non-US countries to “sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold.”
They have been stockpiling every year.
$XAU
{future}(XAUUSDT)

Central bank reserves are long-term—so they’re a long-term positive.
They have little to do with short-term price action.
But in the near term, downside room is limited.
To understand this, note that many non-US central banks have been stockpiling gold since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
At that time, the US froze and sanctioned Russia, prompting some non-US countries to “sell US Treasuries and buy gold.”
They’ve been stockpiling every year.
$XAUt

ZEC worth $531, with an 11-day countdown to the upgrade—are you going to bet?

First, look at the surface: panic is repaired, and a strong rebound follows.

In the past 30 days, it’s up 6%; in the past 7 days, it’s up 11%. After a violent rebound from the June low around the 300 region to the 530-570 range, its market cap is back to $9 billion, ranking #15. In the last 24 hours, trading volumes are hundreds of millions of dollars—volume and price are moving in sync. The candlesticks tell you: the daily chart has formed a higher high–higher low structure, and the falling wedge signals a bullish reversal.

First thing: the vulnerability almost killed ZEC, but Ironwood gave it a second life.

By late May, Orchard shielded pool exposed a serious vulnerability—at least in theory, it could allow unlimited ZEC forgery. After the news hit, the price plunged nearly 50% from the highs, with the low smashed to around 300. Market confidence collapsed immediately.

Sounds scary? But look at it now—developers urgently soft-fork to disable Orchard, and the July 28 Ironwood hard fork will fully fix it. The new shielded pool introduces “turnstile” (a public accounting checkpoint) to verify the total supply in real time without leaking privacy.

Second thing: shielded supply hits a new high, while a whale quietly accumulates.

Shielded transactions have already reached 30%+ of circulating volume, locking in large amounts of liquidity.

After the 2024 halving, block rewards are down to only 1.5625 ZEC, and new supply keeps tightening. On one side, supply is decreasing; on the other, locked-in amounts in shielded pools are increasing—textbook-level supply-demand imbalance.

Forbes has just listed ZEC among the top 10 crypto assets worth buying in 2026 (annual gain over 1190%). Attention from Wall Street has started to shift.

Third thing: a textbook-level technical signal appears.

From 300 to 530, ZEC has formed a perfect higher high–higher low structure, successfully reclaiming the rising trendline. The falling wedge bullish reversal pattern—classic, classic, and more classic. RSI is neutral but slightly bullish, MACD is in a bullish alignment, and short-term moving averages are diverging upward.

Long vs short—judge for yourself:

One side is:

Ironwood upgrade activates on July 28, and the core catalyst is right on the string

The math proof is about to be completed, fully eliminating the “infinite minting” risk

Shielded supply reaches a new high (30%+), and circulating supply keeps tightening

Forbes selection + rising institutional attention

Technicals show a falling wedge bullish reversal with good volume-price confirmation

The other side is:

Execution risk of the upgrade (delay, bugs, insufficient node readiness)

EU MiCA takes effect in 2027, which may affect privacy coin listings

Three rejections near the previous high around 550, with heavy selling pressure

If the broader market (BTC) pulls back, high-beta names get hit first

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 545-550 → 600 → 620-680 (potential upside targets after the upgrade)

Support below: 490-520 → 438-470 → 400 (a “bottom” zone)

For short-term traders:

On a retest of 490-520, build positions in batches; set stop-loss below 490. First target 550-560—sell half first. If it effectively breaks and holds above 550, go long on strength, targeting 580-620.

For swing traders:

Wait for the daily close to hold above 550 before adding on the right side; target 600-680. Take dynamic profits and don’t get shaken out by a washout.

For long-term believers:

DCA in batches below 500, treating it like a “privacy-version BTC.” With the 2024 halving + tighter supply + compliant, verifiable logic, the long-term thesis is solid. But remember—before the upgrade you’re betting on expectations; after the upgrade you’re betting on execution. Around July 28, either it rockets or it gets dumped—there’s no middle ground.

Risk-control iron rule:

Single-coin allocation must not exceed 10-15% of total capital; focus on spot, and leverage no more than 3-5x. Volatility before and after the upgrade will be extreme—always use spare money, never go All in, and stop-loss must be set.

ZEC’s current script—

Just like 2017 Bitcoin’s SegWit upgrade and 2021 Ethereum’s EIP-1559 upgrade: before major tech upgrades, the market first drops, then rallies; then it explodes in a FOMO frenzy.

When others are fearful, I get greedy. When others doubt, I research. When others chase, I distribute.

On the day 550 breaks through, you’ll realize:

It’s not that Zcash can’t work—it’s that you keep cutting losses at the lowest point. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

BTC worth $63,300—what are you still waiting for?

First, look at the surface: range trading at high levels, with both bulls and bears cursing.

After a bottoming out at 58k-60k at the end of June, there was a violent rebound to 64k-65k in early July. Now, around 63k, it’s grinding back and forth. The last 24 hours saw less than a 1% swing, trading volume is shrinking, RSI is neutral at 50-60, and the MACD histogram is contracting—direction is about to be chosen. Don’t get washed out of the car.

First thing: the ETF is back, but you may not have noticed.

In June alone, net outflows exceeded $4 billion—an all-time record. Retail investors panicked. But July is clearly turning around—BlackRock IBIT saw daily inflows of over $200 million, with the flagship product registering net inflows for consecutive days.

Same story happened once in July 2025. Back then nobody believed it—later BTC rose from 55k to 75k.

What you see in the news is always “ETF outflows of $4 billion,” and nobody tells you “July is already back with $2 billion.”

Second thing: the low point in June wasn’t a crash—it was a shakeout.

In that 58k-60k move at the end of June, the whole network liquidated mostly longs, and sentiment was extremely panicked. But look at on-chain data: long-term holders are accumulating, mid-size whales are buying, miner reserves are stable, and the Puell Multiple is in a low zone.

Strategy sold a bit of BTC—markets nearly died from fear. But if you look closely, that amount is less than a small fraction of their holdings. They were just doing an asset allocation adjustment, and you thought the sky was falling.

Third thing: macro is changing, but you might not be able to read it.

The Fed kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. June nonfarm payrolls were weak and far below expectations—so the probability of further hikes fell, while expectations for rate cuts warmed up.

One Fed-related headline can push BTC up 5% or drop it 8%. Weak employment + sticky inflation = stagflation worries; but weak employment + inflation easing = rate-cut expectations, and BTC simply flies.

Bulls vs bears—judge for yourself.

One side:

July ETFs keep flowing back, BlackRock’s daily inflows over $200 million

The 58k June low confirmed a strong support, and the V-shaped rebound proves the buy-side is strong

Long-term holders keep accumulating, whales adding

RSI is neutral and hasn’t gone overbought, with upside room

The other side:

Middle East geopolitical tension is tight, and oil price volatility suppresses risk assets

The US dollar index strengthens, and US Treasury yields weigh on BTC

The shadow of Strategy’s selling is still there

64.5k-66k is a dense supply zone—breakout requires volume

Key levels

Resistance above: 64.5k-66k (EMA cluster + dense supply zone) → 70,000+

Support below: 61,000-62,000 → 58k-60,000 (the “iron bottom”)

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 61,000-62,000 and buy in batches, stop-loss at 60,500, target 65k-66,500. Near 64,800-65,500 with low volume, you can lightly try a short—stop-loss above 66,500, target 62,000-61,000.

For swing players:

Wait for the daily close to hold above 64.5k before getting in on the right side, target 70,000+. If it breaks below 61,000 and expands volume, stand by first.

For long-term believers:

Below 63k, invest steadily with no closing your eyes—ignore short-term volatility. Target: the 2028 halving cycle high. Allocate 10-20% of total position to BTC, keep cash ready for black swan events.

BTC’s current state—

That end-of-June move was “liquidity sweeping,” not the start of a bear market. The July ETF inflow is a signal, but 64.5k is the test stone.

When others are fearful, be greedy. When others are greedy, be fearful. But more importantly: don’t cut losses during the shakeout.

On the day it breaks 65,000, you’ll realize:

It’s not that BTC is bad—it’s that every time you get scared off at the lowest points. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $BTC $ETH $SOL

$BTC is sitting at one of the most important levels on the chart.
The 20-day moving average has flipped from resistance into support.
That shift matters.
• Previous resistance has now turned into support
• Buyers are defending the trend
• Holding this level keeps short-term momentum intact
If Bitcoin continues to respect the 20-day MA, the current recovery could extend into a much stronger rally.
The next few sessions will be important.

$BTC is sitting at one of the most important levels on the chart.

The 20-day moving average has flipped from resistance into support.

That shift matters.

• Previous resistance has now turned into support
• Buyers are defending the trend
• Holding this level keeps short-term momentum intact

If Bitcoin continues to respect the 20-day MA, the current recovery could extend into a much stronger rally.

The next few sessions will be important.

#PreIPOsSeason2OpenAISubscription
#GateDEXIntegratesWithRobinhoodChain

$400B wiped out from Japanese stocks.
A strong reminder that markets can turn faster than most people expect.
When momentum fades, fear spreads quickly and even the strongest rallies can see sharp pullbacks.
Volatility is part of the game. The key is to stay patient, manage your risk, and avoid making emotional decisions.
Corrections don't last forever, but the lessons they teach do.
DYOR.

The worst part is still what happens to people who trade crypto. Last year, the crypto market dropped into the first half of this year. After Bitcoin finally eased up around 60,000 to give people a chance to breathe, it just slowly ground along—then the Korean and U.S. stock markets surged higher. To expand their markets, crypto exchanges connected themselves to U.S. stock trading. From what I’ve seen and heard, many fellow crypto traders, gritting their teeth, sold their crypto assets at a loss, then went all-in at high levels on Micron and SanDisk. And then they blew up again, losing another 30%➕ on this asset in the crypto world—at the very least, they can still hold on if Bitcoin falls to 40,000 U.S. dollars…

Would you dare to buy the dip on LAB at $0.19?

First, look at the surface: crash, crash, then another crash.

On June 2, ATH was $27.22. On July 8, it saw an 85% one-day drop—falling from 14 bucks straight to below 2 bucks. Today it’s $0.19, with the market cap down to just $54 million. FDV has shrunk from the hundreds of billions to $175 million. 24-hour trading volume: $63 million—pure panic orders fleeing for their lives.

First thing: ZachXBT exposed it, but you might not have seen the real truth yet.

The on-chain sleuth posted multiple tweets in a row: the team-funded entity wallets and insider addresses have been dumping at scale. From July 10 to 11, a single batch withdrew 18.4 million LAB and sold on DEX, and the price dropped another 50%.

The project team’s response: burn 1% of the supply (about 10 million LAB), saying it was done by an “external whale.”

Sounds familiar? Every time there’s a crash, the project says, “It wasn’t us.” But you can’t fool anyone with on-chain data—95% of the supply is controlled by a small number of wallets, and OTC backrooms and market makers are manipulating the market.

Second thing: VC backing—but it can’t save the collapse of trust.

Animoca Brands, OK Ventures, Lemniscap—top-tier VCs rolled in with endorsements. And the product really does have something: a multi-chain AI trading terminal, non-custodial, supporting Solana, Ethereum, and BNB Chain.

Total supply is 1 billion, and the allocation terms have been changed multiple times—transparency is ≈ zero.

The product can be used, but the token distribution is garbage.

The team can unlock, transfer, and dump at any time.

Now, product progress is completely buried under negative news. When trust hits zero, even strong fundamentals are just paper.

Third thing: the technicals show a “possible” setup.

The daily RSI has entered oversold. After the July 8 sell-off, there was a high-volume breakdown, followed by a small rebound at the lows. $0.15-$0.18 is the current strong support zone—if it holds, it could form a falling wedge or a double bottom.

But don’t forget—$0.22-$0.25 is the first resistance. If it can’t even stay above $0.25, what “reversal” are you talking about?

Bull vs bear—you decide.

On one side:

$0.15-$0.18 strong support zone; after a 99% drop, there are signs of stabilization with decreasing volume

Oversold + maximum panic—any good news can trigger a brutal 50%-100% violent rebound

If the project team really starts buybacks/delivering the product, there could be a recovery rally

On the other side:

On-chain evidence points to continuous selling from team-linked addresses

Token distribution is highly concentrated; unlock pressure hasn’t fully been released

After trust collapses, no new money dares to step in and take the bag

This could be one “dead cat bounce” on the road to going to zero.

Key levels

Upper resistance: $0.22-$0.25 → $0.40 → $0.60+

Lower support: $0.15-$0.18 → $0.12-$0.14

With coins like this, there’s a 99% probability of going to zero, and a 1% probability of 100x.

Conservative approach:

Stay completely on the sidelines. Wait for the Z project team to keep delivering positive messages, for the price to stand above $0.30 and confirm with volume—then consider it.

Aggressive approach:

Build positions in batches at $0.15-$0.18 (3-4 times); take a stop-loss at $0.12.

First target: $0.30-$0.40 (a 50%-100% rebound). Second target: $0.60+.

From $27 down to $0.19—it only took 41 days.

What does that mean?

It means if you went ALL IN, your account would now be left with only 0.7%.

This isn’t investing—it’s gambling.

Catching the dip “after the crash” is buying the dip. Catching it “before it hits zero” is looking for death.

What stage is LAB in right now?

I don’t know.

But I do know this: when the on-chain sleuth and the project team start blaming each other, the truly smart money already ran. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $BTC $ETH $LAB

Why is the U.S. stock market dropping so much? When will it be time to buy the dip?
It fell yesterday and kept dropping into today.
A one-way fall—straight into an “A.”
One side says profit-taking is dumping.
The other side says AI storage demand is still very high, and it will rise further in the future.
What do you think?
$NVDA.US $AAPL.US $GOOGL.US

rToken launched 6 weeks ago saw trading volume of $2.17 billion; the average daily volume in the past 7 days is nearly $80 million. With current user AUM at $107 million, what’s behind rToken’s “overtake on a curve”?
After my hands-on experience with Bitget rToken, I found that its biggest value isn’t buying stocks—it’s this: one rToken can do three jobs.
First job: lie back and earn from US stock upside.
Hold spot and wait for a surge.
Second job: turn into ruthless margin collateral.
You don’t need to sell your US stock holdings to move them into derivatives—just use them as margin in a unified account to open contracts, with a maximum collateral rate of 95%.
Third job: liquidity ATM.
You can use it directly as collateral to borrow USDT and USDC, and your US stock holdings become “live water.”
Based on public information, most platforms only solve the first-layer problem, meaning spot trading. For example, OKX’s UTS follows a unified trading entry approach, integrating the same stock tokens from different issuers into a single asset. Bybit’s xStocks also provides access to stock tokens, giving everyone one more place to buy and sell. Binance’s bStocks takes it one step further and has already entered a margin system.
So, yeah—this is packed with intricacies. One cent used three times can make your earning speed 3x that of others.
It’s like buying a property in a prime location: not only do you collect rent every month, but the property can also be fully pledged anytime and anywhere to provide you with interest-free or low-interest cash flow, so you can arbitrage other high-return projects 😂

ETH worth $1,830—are you still waiting for lower entry prices?

First, look at the surface: it pumps up and then pulls back—panic-fueled stampede.

In the past 24 hours, it’s dropped nearly 5% from the high. The short-term long structure has officially broken. The candlesticks tell you: the 1,840 support has been breached, the 1,820–1,830 zone has become the final line of defense, and the MACD dead cross is diverging downward. Panic is at its extreme—but the opportunity may be right in front of you.

First thing: the CPI “good” news got slapped away by a hawkish move, and you froze.

June CPI MoM was -0.4%, YoY 3.5%; core CPI MoM was 0.0%, YoY 2.6%—the data is soft to the point of no more softness, directly pushing the July rate-hike probability down to 15.5%. ETH surged to 1,946, the first time in 43 days it closed above 1,900.

Then what?

Fed officials Logan publicly called for “a modest rate hike,” releasing a clear hawkish signal. The new chair Kevin Warsh was even harsher in his first appearance in Congress: he explicitly said “no rescue for crypto” and opposed the CBDC.

Second thing: institutions are buying, ETFs are flowing back—what are you panicking about?

Spot Ethereum ETFs ended eight consecutive weeks of net outflows. This week recorded a net inflow of $84 million, led by BlackRock’s ETHA fund. In just the past three days, there were another $96 million in inflows.

Last week, BitMine added another $73 million worth of ETH, bringing total holdings to 5.74 million ETH—about 4.8% of circulating supply, just one step away from the 5% target. Of that, about 85% (4.87 million ETH) has been staked, and annualized staking rewards are expected to be $235 million.

Third thing: the Glamsterdam upgrade— the biggest variable the market is overlooking.

This is the largest protocol change since the 2022 Merge. The upgrade raises the gas limit from 60 million to 200 million, more than tripling it. The devnet testnet devnet-7 went live on July 15. The Sepolia testnet is tentatively scheduled to activate on August 3, with mainnet deployment targeting September 16.

Long vs short battle—you decide

On one side:

ETF has had net inflows for two straight weeks—institutional demand is back

BitMine holdings: 5.74 million ETH (4.8% of supply)—still buying

Staking rate 32%+—circulating supply continues to tighten

Glamsterdam upgrade to activate on the September mainnet—fees down 78%

1730 double bottom confirmed—bounce structure intact

On the other side:

Hawkish Fed stance—rate-hike expectations are still there

Geopolitical tensions (escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict)

Whales moving ETH to exchanges—selling pressure increases

Heavy resistance at 1870–1880

Key levels

Upside targets: 1880 → 1900–1950 → 2000+

Downside floor: 1780–1800 → 1730

For short-term traders:

If it pulls back to 1820–1830, go long with a small position; stop-loss at 1780. First target 1870–1880; if it breaks, look for 1900–1950. If it rebounds to 1870–1880 and faces selling pressure, you can consider going short.

For swing traders:

Wait for the daily close to hold above 1880 before entering from the right side. Targets: 1950–2000. If there’s a valid breakdown below 1780, stand by and consider again near 1730.

For long-term believers:

DCA in batches below 1800. Staking rate 32%+ locks up supply, continuous institutional buying, and the Glamsterdam upgrade are coming—three strongest long-term logics are all present at the same time. The target is 2,500–3,000 by the end of 2027—betting on upgrade tailwinds + a rate-cut cycle + continued institutional inflows. But remember—1730 is the last line of defense. If it breaks, cut positions first and then observe.

ETH now is like the bear-market bottom at the end of 2022—

99% of people think “it will still fall,” and then in 2023–2025 it went from 900 to 4900.

The day 1880 breaks through, you’ll realize:

It’s not that ETH is failing—it’s that you keep cutting losses at the lowest panic points. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $BTC $ETH $SOL

#Ethereum whales are making moves 👀
Seven fresh wallets have accumulated 89,396 $ETH (~$164.9M) from #Coinbase Prime over the past 72 hours.
Worth keeping an eye on.

There’s evidence with pictures—proving we’re not just doing post-hoc hindsight!
A month ago, when US stocks were at their hottest, a friend asked me whether they should chase it. My advice back then was simple: when the hype is too high, for small-capital investors, avoid FOMO as much as possible—the risk-reward ratio is no longer as attractive.
Looking back now, many people should have started to feel the pressure from this round of adjustment.
On July 17, the Nikkei index fell by about 4%. The Korean KOSDAQ index has already pulled back by more than 20% from its mid-June peak. Although the decline in the three major US stock indexes was relatively limited, what’s truly under pressure is the AI industry chain. Sectors such as chips, memory, and optical communications have generally weakened. Micron fell by more than 5%, Nvidia fell by more than 2%, SanDisk fell by nearly 9%, and related stocks such as SK Hynix have also shown clear adjustments.
The most profound takeaway from this drop is this: global capital markets’ reliance on the AI narrative is even higher than many people expect. Once expectations cool off, the speed at which capital leaves can be extremely fast.
At the same time, discussions about global economic slowdown and financial risks have been increasing in recent times. On the other side, Berkshire Hathaway, led by Buffett, has continued to raise cash reserves and reduce some equity assets in recent years. This defensive-style allocation is also worth the market’s attention.
Looking at the US fiscal situation, the pressure has actually been there all along. For fiscal year 2026, net interest expense on US Treasury debt is expected to be close to $1 trillion, while total fiscal revenue for the year is about $5.5 trillion—meaning nearly one-fifth of fiscal revenue will be used to pay interest. If the debt scale continues to expand, interest spending over the next decade could rise further, which will undoubtedly keep increasing fiscal pressure.
Whether a financial crisis will erupt in the future is something nobody can be certain about. But what can be certain is that in a market environment where high valuations, high leverage, and high expectations coexist, risks are continuously accumulating.
For ordinary investors, more important than guessing the top and bottom is controlling position size, diversifying allocations, not blindly chasing hot themes, and always leaving yourself enough room to deal with extreme market conditions.
The market will always have opportunities, but the prerequisite is: you’re still sitting at the table.

Korean regulators have begun proactively “deleveraging” the market. In addition to focusing on monitoring margin financing and margin trading and other margin-related transactions to prevent market pullbacks from amplifying retail investors’ losses, they also require insurance institutions to reduce the risk of asset-liability duration mismatch.

Against the backdrop of major volatility in South Korea’s stock market, heightened tensions in the Middle East, and rising expectations for further interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, regulators are clearly more concerned about liquidity risk and financial institutions’ cascading reactions than just a simple market correction.

$59 HYPE—did you panic? The team just transferred $32 million worth of tokens to the exchange.

First look at the surface: bearish news keeps coming, and fear spreads.

Over the past month, it fell from ATH 76.85 to 59, a drawdown of over 23%. The team moved tokens, there were monthly unlocks, and Bitcoin has been choppy—every bad headline all at once. The candlestick chart tells you: 58-60 is the 50-day EMA plus the previous breakout level, trading volume has shrunk during the pullback, RSI is neutral-to-low, the pullback is nearing its end, and a direction choice is imminent.

First thing: the team transferred tokens worth $32 million to the exchange—but you got pulled into someone else’s tempo.

In July, the team transferred about 452k HYPE to exchanges, worth $32 million. Retail exploded: “The team is about to dump, run!”

Sounds scary? But take a closer look—what percentage is those 452,000 tokens of the team’s total holdings? Less than 1%. They might be managing liquidity, doing OTC deals, or providing for market makers—yet you insist on interpreting it as “fully liquidating and running away.”

Second thing: protocol revenue breaks through $1 billion, and the buyback machine is devouring supply.

Cumulative protocol revenue surpassed $1 billion
97% of trading fee revenue is used for open-market buybacks of HYPE and burns

In 2025, buybacks exceeded $645 million; in Q1 2026, another $192 million was bought back
Cumulative buybacks exceed $1.3 billion, and circulating supply continues to shrink

Third thing: institutions and ETFs are already in—yet you’re still watching the candlesticks in panic.

Bitwise launched the BHYP ETF, already absorbing tens of millions of dollars

21Shares and other institutions have successively listed HYPE ETFs

Bitwise included HYPE in its Top-10 index, and also stakes it to earn yield

Compliance capital from Wall Street is flowing in through the ETF channel, while you’re stuck on “the team transferred 452,000 tokens.”

Bull vs bear—judge for yourself

On one side is:

Protocol revenue breaks through $1 billion, 97% buyback-and-burn, and the deflationary engine keeps running
Spot US ETF is live, and institutional capital keeps flowing in
DeFi Perp market share at 50-70%—absolute leader, unshakable
58-60 strong support holds, and the daily MACD is about to form a golden cross

On the other side is:

Team token transfers + monthly unlocks—there’s short-term supply pressure
If Bitcoin falls below 60k, HYPE will likely follow
The emotional damage from Arthur Hayes fully cashing out hasn’t been fully healed
Key levels

Resistance: 65-68 → 70-72 → 76.85 (ATH)
Support: 58-60 (50-day EMA + strong support) → 55 → 50-53 (ultimate hard-bottom)

Short-term traders:

Buy in batches on the 58-62 support zone, stop-loss below 55; targets 65-68, and add more if it breaks above 68, looking at 72-75. Keep leverage within 3x—don’t get greedy.

Swing players:

Wait for a breakout above 68 with volume before adding; target a return to 76-85 and even 100. If it breaks below 55, reduce positions first and wait, then look to buy back at 50-53.

Long-term believers:

DCA in batches in the 55-60 range, hold for at least half a year. HYPE is an absolute DeFi Perp leader + income asset + buyback deflation + ETF backing—four buffs stacked on one ticket. In the Top 10, you won’t find a second one. Target 100-150 (end of 2026).

Buy when everyone is panicking. Sell when everyone is FOMO-ing. What’s the market sentiment like right now? Just look at your group chat.

HYPE right now is like SOL at the end of 2023—

99% of people think, “After a 10x, it must collapse,” and it goes from 20 to 200 anyway.

The day it breaks above 65, you’ll find out:

It’s not that HYPE isn’t good—it’s that every time you get scared by on-chain transfers, you cut losses. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #盘前合约上线长鑫存储 #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $BTC $ETH $HYPE

Target price by end of 2026:
$MU → $1500
$NVDA → $450
$AAPL → $400
$SNDK → $2500
$MSFT → $600
$AMD → $700
$SPCX → $300
$META → $900
$TSLA → $550
$TSM → $600
$SKHY → $300
$MRVL → $350
$NBIS → $350
$PLTR → $180
$QCOM → $250
Who do you have your eyes on?

2026 year-end target prices:
$MU → $1500
$NVDA → $300
$AAPL → $360
$SNDK → $250
$MSFT → $600
$AMD → $300
$SPCX → $150
$META → $900
$TSLA → $600
$TSM → $400
$SKHY → $500
$MRVL → $150
$NBIS → $300
$PLTR → $500
$QCOM → $250
Which one do you believe in?

Yesterday Apple hit a new high, and I was tempted to chase the move.
After thinking it over, I still entered.
But holding it made me feel uneasy, so I got out.
And I lost a bit of money on the trading fee.
If holding a position makes you feel anxious, then it’s not really an opportunity that belongs to you.
Unsettled trading can easily throw you off.