Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Gold is trading like stocks.
Stocks are trading like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is trading like alts.
Alts are trading like memecoins.
Nothing makes sense right now.

Bitcoin is bouncing a little whilst traditional markets are closed.

Friday saw the Nasdaq fall 1.4%, the S&P 500 lose 1% and oil complete a roughly 16% weekly surge as US-Iran tensions intensified.

Today, $BTC has recovered from around $62.5K to above $64K.

That relative strength is worth noting, but weekend crypto trades without a live US equity or Treasury market. Thinner liquidity can exaggerate moves while the wider macro reaction remains paused.

The real test comes when traditional markets reopen.

Hold $64K against continued pressure elsewhere, and Bitcoin is showing genuine relative strength. Lose it, and this may simply be a weekend relief bounce.#SummerCreationCamp #PreIPOsSeason2OpenAISubscription ‌

$BTC is still respecting its daily channel structure.

Price has reached the upper part of the pattern but continues to trade in a tight range.

Bulls are holding ground, yet they haven't managed to force a convincing breakout.

If sellers gain control, the next likely destination is the lower support area of the channel.

That level will be important for keeping the broader trend intact.

The trend hasn't changed, but this is a level where risk and opportunity are both increasing.

#SummerCreationCamp
#GateDEXIntegratesWithRobinhoodChain
#USDTDepositEarningsDoublePlay

MU worth $841—would you dare to bottom-fish?

First, look at the surface: an epic-level earnings report, yet the stock price crashes.

On June 25, the earnings report blew things up: revenue $41.6 billion, up 346% year over year; EPS $25.11, far above expectations. Q4 guidance calls for revenue of $50 billion, gross margin 86%, and all HBM capacity for the next two years is fully sold out. Then what? The stock price went from 1255 straight into a nosedive to 841, dropping by a third.

The weekly trend is still in an upward channel, but the daily chart has formed a clear downward channel—consecutive high-volume bearish candles, and the RSI has entered the oversold zone. Short-term sentiment is at an all-time low, but any trend reversal needs confirmation.

First: the earnings report blew up, but “good news is already priced in” is Wall Street’s standard move.

Revenue surged 346%, gross margin jumped from the lows to 86%, and management says “AI memory shortages will continue until after 2027.” Sounds like a dream?

But if you look closely—on the day the report came out, it surged to 1255, and then immediately started falling. Wall Street logic is always “buy the expectation, sell the fact.” MU had already risen 10x before earnings, so cashing out on the good news is the best time to dump.

Second: macro headwinds, but AI isn’t a normal tech stock.

The new Fed chair Warsh is more hawkish; CPI is 4.2% YoY, and rate-hike expectations are heating up. High rates pressure growth stocks, and the broader tech sector is under stress. The market is starting to doubt the sustainability of AI capital expenditures—rumors about the rotation from “selling AI hardware, buying software” make MU even worse off.

NVIDIA’s GPUs can’t do without MU’s memory—that’s hard demand, not something you can bypass with “software optimization.”

Third: a technical signal has appeared that must be taken seriously.

A sell-off with heavy volume + RSI oversold + potential MACD bottom hidden divergence—this is a typical “panic washout” structure. The long-term upward channel on the weekly chart hasn’t broken, and the 200-week moving average is still pointing up.

If 840 can’t be held, the next stop is 800-820, and then 780, or even 720.

You decide in the face-off between bulls and bears:

One side is:

Revenue +346%, gross margin 86%, the strongest earnings in history

HBM capacity sold out for the next two years, long-term agreements locked in revenue

AI memory shortages continue until after 2027—this isn’t a cyclical stock

841 is a key historical support zone; RSI oversold means high rebound probability

The other side is:

Up 10x from the lows—massive profit-taking

Macro is leaning hawkish; high rates compress tech valuations

Funds rotate out of hardware stocks; near-term sentiment is weak

If 840 breaks, it could accelerate the dip toward 800-720

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 900-950 → 1000-1050 → 1100-1255

Support below: 800-820 → 780 → 720

For short-term traders:

Wait for a high-volume bullish candle to confirm holding above 850, then try going long; target 900-950; stop loss below 800. For the more aggressive: try a small long near 841; stop loss at 800; target 900-950.

For swing traders:

Trade in batches: enter the first tranche near 840, add a second tranche below 820. Keep total position size within 10-20%. Stop loss at 780; target 1000-1100.

For long-term believers:

The 800-850 range is the golden dip of the AI super cycle. Buy in 2-3 batches; target 1250-1500; hold for 1-2 years. But remember—this kind of high-volatility stock: always keep cash for averaging down.

MU now is like Nvidia in 2023—

Earnings explode → short-term pullback of 30% → retail panic sells at a loss → then it rises 5x in two years.

The difference is: when Nvidia back then was down 20% from the peak, you didn’t dare to buy. Now MU has pulled back 33%, yet you still don’t dare to buy.

Every time “good news is already priced in,” it’s institutions’ playbook. Every time “a brutal drop after earnings,” it’s money being delivered to smart people. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $SNDK $MU $AMD

The analysis is very detailed.

The most common mistakes people make when trading US stocks
The most common scenario is that when prices rise, they say they’re doing short-term trades and want to make quick money.
After prices fall, they refuse to cut losses, and then change their story to say they’re a long-term investor.
This isn’t investing—it’s self-soothing after getting stuck.
There’s another case: you originally bought a long-term, high-quality company, but once it drops 5% in a day and 10% in a week, you start panicking and selling to cut losses. Managing long-term positions with short-term emotions is also very hard to make money.
Before placing an order, you must answer three questions
How long are you planning to hold this money?
A few days, a few months, or a few years—
Why buy?
Is it a technical breakout, an event catalyst, inflows of capital, or long-term fundamentals?
What situation proves that I’m wrong?
Trading looks at price and structure; investing looks at fundamentals and valuation.
If you can’t answer, don’t buy for now.
The most practical approach is to separate your account and positions directly:
Trading account: fast in, fast out; you must cut losses; when catalysts play out, reduce position size.
Investing account: low-frequency operations; build positions in batches; accept normal volatility.
Cash account: wait for genuinely favorable opportunities—not for the sake of trading.
Trading is: leave when you discover you were wrong; investing is: hold as long as the company hasn’t changed. The most dangerous thing is to use investing to cover up trading failure, and to let trading emotions ruin long-term investing.
My investing account is one I won’t open for the long term. The trading account is separate, and they don’t affect each other.

$1,345 SNDK—dare to buy the dip?

First, look at the surface: a high-volume selloff from the top, with retail investors panicking and shouting “crash.”

Over the past month, it plunged from 2,350+ to around 1,350, a drop of more than 42%, and down more than 23% over 5 days. Yesterday, the intraday low smashed to 1,325. The whole internet is in anguish, and KOLs are shouting that the “AI bubble has burst.”

First thing: from 28 to 2,354, a 42% drop is a normal pullback—not a crash.

In February 2025, when it was spun off from Western Digital, SNDK was only $28. In 15 months it surged 8,000%+, and since the start of this year it’s still up 454%, with a gain of 3,000%+ over 1 year.

A stock that’s up 8,000%—a 40% pullback gets called a “healthy shakeout,” not a “trend reversal.”

Second thing: Wall Street is aggressively raising price targets, yet you’re bearish.

On July 1, Bank of America raised its target price from $2,100 to $2,500. The same day, Bernstein raised its target price from $1,700 by 76% to $3,000. On July 10, Morgan Stanley raised its target price from $1,100 to $1,750. On July 15, Société Générale raised its target price from $1,200 to $1,900.

The highest target price given by analysts has reached $3,250. At the current price of $1,350, Wall Street’s average upside potential is still 58%.

Third thing: the fundamentals haven’t collapsed—if anything, they’re accelerating.

Q3 revenue was $5.95 billion, up 251% year over year, and gross margin surged to 78.4%. The data center business jumped 233% quarter-over-quarter. Zero long-term debt, and ample cash.

Even more brutal: on the supply side, NAND capacity is expected to shrink by 5% in 2026, with no added capacity before 2028. On the demand side, in 2026, data centers will become the largest NAND market for the first time, and the CEO raised the demand growth outlook to nearly 70%.

Meta just signed multi-year flash memory procurement agreements. Any imbalance between supply and demand will only keep getting worse.

Fourth thing: on Solana, you can still trade SNDK 24/7—this might be the most wild move you’ve ever seen.

Backpack Securities issued a tokenized version on Solana that is 1:1 backed by real SNDK shares. It can be traded 24/7 and redeemed for actual shares. This is the RWA narrative landing on the U.S. stock market.

While you trade U.S. stocks in the daytime, you trade crypto at night—SNDK can be traded for 24 hours a day. Liquidity may not match spot stocks, but the narrative value is huge.

Bull vs bear—judge for yourself.

On one side is:

Wall Street’s average target price: 2,144; highest: 3,250; current: 1,350

Q3 revenue +251%, gross margin 78.4%, data centers +233%

NAND supply-demand imbalance persists until 2028, with no new capacity

An August 5 earnings report catalyst is coming soon

It has rebounded from the 1,325 low, and the storage sector is collectively making a comeback

On the other side is:

Down 42% in a month, and the short-term trend has broken down

Supply concerns triggered by the China Changxin Storage IPO

Fed policy leaning hawkish, with tech stock valuations already high

Massive profit-taking, with heavy overhead trapped positions

Key levels

Resistance: 1,500–1,600 → 1,800–2,000 → 2,354 (all-time high)

Support: 1,300–1,230 → 1,030–1,000

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 1,300–1,345 to take a small position for a long; stop-loss at 1,230. First target: 1,500–1,600; second target: 1,800.

For swing traders:

Wait for the August 5 earnings report to validate. If results beat expectations + strong volume and it holds above 1,600, then chasing longs on the right side with a target of 2,000+. If it breaks below 1,230, wait first, then enter again when it reaches 1,000–1,100.

For long-term believers:

Build positions in batches below 1,300. AI storage is one of the most certain infrastructure tracks for the next 3–5 years, and SanDisk is the purest-quality exposure. The 2027 target is 3,000+—betting on a rising memory cycle + continued AI expansion.

For tokenized SNDK players:

24/7 trading is an advantage, but liquidity is lower and slippage is larger. It’s suitable for small capital to play the RWA narrative; large capital can directly trade stocks or perpetual contracts.

This isn’t a fundamental breakdown—this is the normal pullback after a surge of 8,000%.

At $1,350 for SNDK, Wall Street says it’s worth 2,144; at the most optimistic view, it’s worth 3,250.

On August 5, after the earnings report, you’ll realize:

It wasn’t that SNDK is bad—it’s that you cut losses at the lowest points every time. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $MU $SNDK $SKHY

21 Stock Investment Golden Rules:
1. If you don’t put effort into researching the fundamentals, you’re essentially just handing over money.
2. Don’t blindly trust Wall Street “math wizards”; use the information gap in the industry where you are and focus deeply on one or two areas.
3. Behind every stock is a living, breathing company—first figure out how it makes money.
4. In the short term, stock prices are driven by sentiment; in the long term, they’re driven by performance—be patient with successful companies and you’ll eventually get rewarded.
5. You must clarify why you’re holding the stock; children will eventually grow up, but stocks may not necessarily rise.
6. People who spend all day fantasizing about getting rich with an all-in bet are often the ones who lose the worst.
7. Retail investors have limited energy—at any time, you should ideally hold no more than 5 stocks at once.
8. If you can’t find stocks worth investing in, stay away from the stock market; keeping your money in the bank without losing is still a win.
9. Before buying a stock, you must check the balance sheet to see whether the company has bankruptcy risk.
10. The hottest things are likely to die—avoid popular “momentum” stocks in hot sectors; outstanding companies in less popular sectors are more likely to become big winners.
11. Don’t blindly bottom-fish when investing in startups; wait patiently until they turn profitable before entering.
12. When investing in struggling industries, you must wait for recovery signals, and only buy absolute top leaders that have the ability to get through the tough times.
13. Retail investors’ biggest advantage is concentrated holdings—if you can catch just a few big winners in your lifetime, it may be enough to change your fate.
14. Be observant: watch the stock market from everyday life. You’ll find the timing of high-growth “black horse” opportunities often comes much earlier than for professional investors.
15. Stock market crashes are the norm—be ready with cash and buy core assets at low prices.
16. Making money takes both knowledge and nerve. People who get panicky and cut losses blindly during crashes aren’t suited for trading.
17. Block out all kinds of pessimistic predictions and “market collapse” talk in the news—rest assured, the sky won’t fall.
18. Give up the fantasy—nobody can accurately predict macroeconomy, interest rates, or market trends in advance.
19. Diligence determines returns—the more companies you research, the higher the probability you’ll find companies that are far better than expectations.
20. When holding stocks of excellent companies, time is your friend—the longer you hold, the greater the chance to make money.
21. If you have the courage but no time to do the homework on fundamentals, the best choice is to diversify into funds with different styles.

The weekend is for rest.
Eat your fill, drink your fill, have some fun.
When liquidity is thin,
don’t go and hand the market makers your money.

In 7 days, ZEC will face its “judgment day”—$538. Are you betting?

First, the surface: from 360 to 550 in a surge, up 53%.

What happened in the past 6 weeks? Orchard vulnerability exposed—the price crashed from 680 to 250, and the whole internet screamed “privacy coins are zeroed out.” Then what? In mid-June it bottomed at 360, and in July it rebounded strongly to 550, reclaiming most of the losses. In 1 month it rose 14-23%, in 6 months up 42-45%, and in 1 year up 1080%.

From the brink of collapse to a king’s return—only took 1 month.

First thing: the May vulnerability almost killed ZEC, but now it’s become the best advertisement.

Researchers used AI to find an “infinite minting” vulnerability in the Orchard pool—at least theoretically, counterfeit coins could be created. The market instantly panicked: a 40% flash crash, Arthur Hayes cut losses and ran, and XMR and DASH were buried along with it.

The team launched an emergency soft fork in 48 hours, followed by a 5-day hard fork to fix it, with 0 capital loss.

On July 28, the Ironwood upgrade (NU6.3) will permanently close the old pools, introducing turnstile accounting checkpoints—every funds migration must be publicly verified, with real-time audits of total supply.

Second thing: data doesn’t lie—adoption is exploding.

Shielded pool holdings jumped from 8% in 2024 to 30% now.

Private payments, cross-border transfers, and institutional allocations—Zcash is becoming the only “privacy track” player with both “regulatory cleanliness” and real use cases.

Forbes included it in its 2026 Top 10 Best Crypto Assets, with a yearly gain of over 1080%. Mining platform mergers, renewed institutional interest. ZEC isn’t a “dead cat bounce”—the fundamentals are being repaired.

Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that you must take seriously.

From 360 to 550: a V-shaped reversal with breakout volume. MACD golden cross confirmed, and RSI at 59 hasn’t gone overbought—this level isn’t the top, it’s an uptrend continuation.

But 550-570 is the recent high plus the psychological line; it’s already hit the wall three times. The fourth time—does it punch through directly, or get smashed back to 500?

Before the July 28 upgrade, it’s a classic “buy-the-expectation” window. After the upgrade, either “sell the fact” dumps the market, or a “real breakout” launches it into the sky. The decider is these 7 days.

Longs vs shorts—see for yourself.

On one side:

After 7 days from the Ironwood upgrade, activation is complete and trust is rebuilt

Shielded pool holdings at 30%, real adoption up 4x

Above the 50/200-day moving averages, MACD golden cross, RSI neutral but biased bullish

Forbes Top 10 + yearly gain 1080%, institutional attention returning

After bottoming at 360 in late June, breakout volume drove a 53% rise

On the other side:

There is execution risk with the upgrade; wallet/exchange migration might go wrong

550-570 failed to break three times, and profit-taking needs to be digested

Macro headwinds (Fed hawkishness, geopolitical conflict) suppress high-beta assets

If BTC falls below 60k, ZEC could be dragged down too

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 550-570 → 630 → 690 → 900-1000

Support below: 509 → 492 → 410-380

For short-term traders:

Buy in batches in the 510-525 range, stop loss at 490. Targets 580-620, then 650-690. Before the upgrade, buy the dips; after the upgrade, if execution goes smoothly either hold or add—if anything goes wrong, cut exposure immediately.

For swing traders:

Wait for the daily close to hold above 570 before adding on the right side; target 690-800, stop loss placed below 500.

For long-term believers:

Current 538 is a “value zone after repair.” Build positions in batches. Add at the strong support area of 480-500. Targets 800-1000+, hold for 1-2 years—the bet is that the privacy narrative explodes plus post-halving scarcity.

The most transparent privacy coin in history is being reborn—

On July 28, Zcash will prove one thing: it can make mistakes, and then fix them faster and better than anyone else.

The day 550 breaks through, you’ll realize: it wasn’t that privacy coins had no future—it was that you kept cutting your position at the lowest points. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $BTC $ETH $ZEC

ETH worth $1,842—are you going to buy the dip?

First, look at the surface: a V-shaped rebound, but retail investors don’t dare to move.

At the end of June, it was violently pumped from 1,566: consecutive high-volume bullish candles broke through 1,680-1,695, and it bounced back to 1,842. In the past 7 days it’s up 2.7%, and in 30 days up 5.4%, but YTD is still down 38%, still 60%+ away from ATH at 4,950. The MACD histogram has turned positive, RSI divergence improvement is underway, accumulation near the lows is close to finishing—an inflection point is imminent.

First thing: whales are aggressively accumulating, while retail is panicking and waiting.

Bitmine continues to buy ETH; its holdings are already over 5.7 million ETH, worth over $10 billion. Big-name players like Arthur Hayes are also adding. One mega whale started sweeping more than 100,000 coins in the 1,600-1,700 range since late June.

Institutions absorbed a full month’s worth of supply in 1,600-1,700, and now it’s been pulled back to around 1,840—right after exiting the cost zone.

Tom Lee publicly said: ETH right now is an Nvidia-style turning point. Believe it or not—either way, their money has already gone in.

Second thing: the Glamsterdam upgrade is getting close—Ethereum is set to change its core.

Expected to activate in the second half of 2026; the key is parallel processing + doubling data capacity + ePBS. Trading fees could drop significantly, and L2 scalability should improve notably.

Institutional staking products (like Grayscale) are gradually rolling out—ETH with yield is becoming more attractive than a pure BTC ETF.

Robinhood Chain has just launched—an Ethereum L2 based on Arbitrum, supporting tokenized stocks + DeFi integration.

Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that must be taken seriously.

After the late-June low, a standard V-shaped reversal formed: consecutive high-volume bullish candles broke above key EMAs and the prior zone where the downtrend began. The pattern could form a double bottom or a breakout structure; RSI divergence is improving and the MACD histogram has turned positive.

But at 1,840-1,850, ETH has hit the wall three times already.

Fourth time—does it punch through directly, or get smashed back to 1,770 again?

It’s a battle between bulls and bears—look for yourself.

One side is:

Bitmine holds 5.7 million ETH—institutions are aggressively accumulating

Glamsterdam upgrade expectations—major fundamental catalyst

Late-June V-shaped reversal + high-volume breakout—technicals turning strong

High staking ratio + EIP-1559 burning—supply keeps shrinking

The other side is:

YTD down 38%, down 43% over 6 months—still a bearish market long-term

ETF outflow pressure still exists; regulatory uncertainty

1840-1850 failed three times—huge psychological pressure

If BTC breaks below 58k, ETH may follow down

Key levels

Resistance: 1,840-1,850 (current main battleground) → 1,940-1,965 → 2,000 (psychological line)

Support: 1,775-1,780 (strong support) → 1,740 → 1,680-1,695

For short-term traders:

Wait for volume to confirm holding above 1,850 to chase longs; stop-loss at 1,830. First target 2,000; second target 2,150-2,250. If it pulls back to 1,775-1,780, build positions in batches; stop-loss below 1,740.

For swing players:

Get in from the right side after holding above 1,850; target 2,000—take half off first, keep the rest for 2,200-2,300. If it breaks below 1,770, leave—don’t hold and “stubbornly carry”.

For long-term believers:

DCA with eyes closed below 1,800. ETH staking yield + upgrade expectations + institutional adoption—end of 2026 target 2,500-3,000. Betting on the rate-cut cycle restarting + the Glamsterdam upside.

ETH’s current state is exactly like Bitcoin’s 2020 breakout phase—

99% of people think “it’s too big to keep rising,” but once institutions step in, it goes straight from 3,800 to 4,800.

The day it breaks above 1,850, you’ll realize:

It’s not that ETH isn’t good—it's that you only dare to chase after it’s already climbed to 4,000 every time. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain $BTC #夏日创作营 $GT $ETH

Every #Bitcoin bear market has looked “less painful” than the previous one.
2014 → -87% → Next ATH: $19,798
2018 → -84% → Next ATH: $69,044
2022 → -77% → Next ATH: $126,199
Current cycle:
-49% so far.
If the pattern of shallower drawdowns continues, the next expansion could surprise most of the market.
The biggest gains have always come after the periods when everyone believed Bitcoin was finished.
What’s your target for the next $BTC ATH? 👇

To marry someone over the age of 25, just look at their original family background first.
For men, what his wife’s mother is like is basically what she will be like too. For women, what her husband’s father is like is basically what he will be like too.
A man’s emotional intelligence/love quotient is influenced the most by his father. A woman’s emotional intelligence/love quotient is influenced the most by her mother.
Intelligence quotient is inherited in the opposite way.
But for people under 25, younger people are influenced more by school, the internet, and peers. The influence of the original family is weaker than before.

BTC worth $64,000—are you going to bottom-fish?

First, look at the surface: a violent dead-cat bounce, but there’s a hidden kill shot.

By late June, it dropped to 58,000, hitting a new yearly low. Everyone was shouting “break 50k.” Then in one week, it violently surged back to 64,000, up nearly 10%. But MSTR took advantage of the bounce to sell 3,588 BTC (worth $216 million). Meanwhile, the ETF had a net outflow of 4-4.5 billion dollars in June, setting a historical record. 64,000-65,000 is strong resistance. RSI is neutral, trading volume is shrinking—yes, the bounce is real, but a reversal isn’t guaranteed yet.

First thing: MSTR is selling, but the price isn’t breaking down—this is important.

Michael Saylor’s company made a large-scale reduction for the first time in 4 years—3,588 BTC, about $216 million—used for dividends and cash reserves. But BTC only wobbled and kept going higher.

What does this mean? Selling pressure has been digested by the market. Retail panic-responds with “the big shots ran,” while institutions quietly absorbed inventory under 60k for half a month. On July 2, ETF net inflows were $223 million; on July 6, $265 million—after multiple consecutive weeks of outflows, it finally turned.

Second thing: June was the worst month in ETF history, but July shows reversal signals.

In June, net outflows were $4-4.5 billion, the worst month since ETFs launched. The media was full of “institutions are exiting.”

But if you look closely: total holdings are still 1.2 million BTC (5.76%), with AUM around $77 billion. This outflow is less than 6% of total holdings.

With the same kind of panic, there was a similar episode before—back in January 2024, right before the ETF approval, when BTC fell from 48,000 to 38,000 and everyone shouted “good news already exhausted.” What happened? Three months later, it rose to 73,000.

Third thing: Macros are still bad, but the market is already “numb.”

The Fed’s June FOMC released a hawkish signal; the dot plot suggests rate hikes could be possible by year-end. CPI YoY is 4.2%, and core PCE was revised up to 3.6%. The Iran situation has pushed up oil prices; a strong dollar suppresses risk assets. Sounds scary?

But look at the tape—BTC bounced from 58,000 back to 64,000.

The macro hasn’t improved, but the price isn’t falling anymore. This is a classic bottoming signal.

Bull vs bear—judge for yourself

One side is:

A violent rebound of 10% from 58,000; after reclaiming the breakdown level, it forms a typical “bear trap” structure

Continuous net inflows for early July; institutions begin bottoming

RSI is neutral; moving averages are tangled—no technical overbought

Realized price around 54,000 forming strong support

The other side is:

MSTR trimmed during the bounce—selling pressure is still there

June was the worst ETF month; market confidence damaged

Fed hawkish—possible rate hikes; high rates suppress

3 attempts to break 64,000-65,000 failed; resistance is heavy

Key levels

Resistance above: 64,500 → 65,000 (bulls’ lifeline) → 67,000 → 70,000

Support below: 60k-61,000 (strong support) → 58,000 (double bottom)

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 61,000-62,000 to enter again. Stop-loss at 60,000. First target: take half off at 64,500-65,000. If it breaks above 65,000 with volume, then chase long; stop-loss at 64,000; aim for 67,000-70,000.

For swing traders:

Build positions in batches in the 61,000-62,000 range. Target 80,000-100,000. Stop-loss at 58,000. Use DCA—don’t go all-in at once.

For long-term believers:

Dollar-cost average with eyes closed below 60,000. With the halving cycle + institutions’ adoption + a potential rate-cut cycle in 2027, the bull-market peak in 2028 could be seen at 150,000+

BTC now is like Bitcoin in September 2023—

Everyone was waiting for the “final drop,” but it didn’t drop; it went straight from 25,000 to 73,000.

The day it breaks 65,000, you’ll realize:

Turns out it isn’t that BTC can’t work—it’s that you always die before dawn. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $SOL

To “save hassle,” they removed the ethics clause—and as a result, they killed the entire bill. I don’t quite understand CLARITY’s move, but I’m genuinely shocked.

82% to 32%.

This isn’t a chart candle from some random low-cap coin. This is the probability on Polymarket that the CLARITY bill will be approved in 2026.

From the swagger of February to the historic all-time low on July 18. In three months, it dropped by 50 points.

What happened?

On July 14, the merged draft was released, and the ethics clause repeatedly demanded by Democrats was deleted.

That one—the clause that prohibits the president, the vice president, members of Congress, and their immediate family members from holding crypto assets or profiting from them during their time in office.

Deleted. Clean and tidy.

Why delete it? Because the White House wouldn’t accept “a specific clause targeting the president.” Crypto-related income disclosed by the Trump family exceeds $1 billion—World Liberty Financial at about $594 million, and $635 million from meme coin sales.

Deleting it might save trouble, but it could directly doom the entire bill.

There are 53 Republican seats in the Senate. To clear the 60-vote threshold for final debate, at least 7 Democrats need to break ranks.

What are the Democrats saying?

Gillibrand: Without enforceable ethics language, there are no Democratic votes.

Murphy, Van Hollen, Merkley: On July 14, they held a joint press conference and formally opposed it.

Warren: Joined the opposition camp.

When the Banking Committee voted in May, only 2 Democrats voted in favor.

Now that the ethics clause is gone, where do you think those 7 votes come from?

Deleting the clause is equivalent to voluntarily blowing up the Democrats’ vote bank.

July 20 and July 27 are the last two voting windows before the recess. The recess is on August 7.

If you miss this window, the bill could be pushed to 2027 and even 2030.

A bill that passed the House 294-134 with a high margin, and a bill that passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9—could end up dying on a single sentence.

One ethics clause. One sentence. And it can erase two years of effort.

A lot of people think: “Cutting it is a good thing! If officials can’t hold positions, then who would speak up for us?”

Let me tell you how short-sighted that idea is.

In the short term, deleting the clause really does make things easier—fewer points of contention, and the bill text looks “cleaner.”

But what about long term?

What does a regulatory framework without ethics constraints mean?

It means the people writing the rules can also place bets in this industry.

You ask a president holding crypto assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars to sign a bill regulating the crypto industry—who do you think he’ll favor?

This isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s out in the open.

When regulators themselves are also stakeholders, the word “fairness” is a joke.

And a regulatory framework without credibility is more terrifying than no regulation at all.

Because it gives everyone the illusion that “the industry has been regulated.” But in reality, the rules are tailored for certain people.

Murphy put it especially painfully:

“If a new crypto regulatory system can’t stop Trump’s corruption in this industry, then drafting it is meaningless.”

It sounds harsh, but the logic is airtight.

Deleting the ethics clause is bad news for the crypto industry. Not that kind of short-term, price-moving bad news—this is institutional-level bad news.

Because without ethics constraints, regulation isn’t regulation—it’s the legalization of privilege.

In the short term, if the bill passes, the industry gets “clarity”—and prices may rise.

In the long term, a regulatory framework that the public sees as “tailor-made for the powerful” will face a full backlash one day.

Then it won’t be the SEC coming after you—it will be Congress, it will be voters, and it will be society’s trust in the crypto industry collapsing.

To save the hassle of a single clause, and gamble away the legitimacy of the entire industry—no matter how you calculate it, that bill is never worth the price.

Now Polymarket’s 32% approval rate isn’t just betting on whether the bill can pass.

It’s betting on whether U.S. politicians actually have the sense to see this layer of stakes clearly. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #夏日创作营 $BTC $GT $ETH

Open interest is climbing again, but price has not expanded at the same pace.
That usually means leverage is quietly rebuilding under the surface. The market may keep rising first, but crowded positioning often ends with a sharp reset.
I’m not expecting an immediate flush, but the next one to three months could bring a serious volatility event.
Risk matters more than direction here.

$BASED Printing Green!
The 15m chart shows strong bullish momentum, pushing $BASED up +2.78% to $0.09439.

After bouncing hard off the 24h low of $0.08686, the price is aggressively consolidating just below the local high of $0.09522.

Volume is flooding in with 24.16M $BASED traded, signalling high buyer interest.

With the candles stacking higher lows, a clean breakout above $0.095 looks imminent.

If bulls clear this resistance, expect a rapid move into price discovery.

Keep a close eye on this one momentum is loading up! #SummerCreationCamp #GateSquare

70.81 million liquidation + a whale dumping + mNAV crashing to 0.87

——Is this round of “leverage liquidation” in HYPE a good thing or a bad thing?

HYPE falls below $60, down 10.4% in 24 hours. It’s already down 21% from its all-time high of $76.85.

In the past 24 hours, Hyperliquid traders have been liquidated for $70.81 million.

An a16z-linked address withdrew 471,500 HYPE tokens within a day—about $30.57 million—and transferred them to multiple trading platforms.

Do you feel like it’s over?

Don’t rush.

$70.81 million—those numbers are scary, but the story isn’t that simple

On July 17, Onchain Lens monitoring showed that over the past 24 hours, Hyperliquid traders incurred $70.81 million in liquidation losses.

But first, calm down. In a high-leverage ecosystem like Hyperliquid, a concentrated liquidation in one sweep is essentially forced deleveraging.

Remember that epic Bitcoin liquidation back in 2021 at $30,000? After the explosion, the rebound happened soon—back to $48,000.

“All bull markets start by clearing the corpses.”

If the longs don’t die, the downtrend won’t stop. Now the longs are “dead” for $70.81 million—so where does it go from here?

Whales are running, but not running much

Another signal: a whale holding $55.3 million worth of HYPE, after lying dormant for weeks, sold $5.81 million worth of it.

Over the past 24 hours, this wallet sold 91,100 HYPE tokens.

$5.81 million is about 10% of the $55.3 million position.

This isn’t an all-out exit—it’s cutting exposure and observing.

mNAV drops to 0.87—that’s the signal worth thinking about most

This is the most interesting part today.

HypeStrat—Hyperliquid’s treasury company—has not adjusted its treasury this week. No HYPE purchases, and no PURR purchases.

Its mNAV has already dropped to a long-term low: 0.87x, with post-tax value of only 0.80x.

What is mNAV? Simply put, it’s the discount of the market price relative to the net asset value. A 0.87x implies the market is only willing to buy this company’s net assets at 87% of their value.

Long-term low + not buying—what does that mean?

Interpretation 1 (bearish): Even their own people think it’s expensive, so they don’t dare to buy—meaning it still has to fall.

Interpretation 2 (neutral): Professional institutions are “waiting,” not “fleeing.” They’re waiting for a cheaper price, or for clearer signals.

In early July, HypeStrat bought 600,000 HYPE tokens within 7 days. Back then, when mNAV was close to 1x, they dared to buy. Now that it’s down to 0.87x, why aren’t they buying?

Next week is the real exam—ETF data will tell the truth

Since the HYPE spot ETF launched in June, its historical cumulative net inflows are $301 million.

But on July 17, the ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $5.45 million.

Is this the first blood of a trend reversal, or just a temporary pullback?

Next week’s ETF flows will tell you the answer:

If the ETF continues to see net inflows: it means institutions are “collecting bodies,” picking up bloody chips.

If the ETF keeps seeing outflows: then this round of leverage liquidation may not be finished yet. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $HYPE

Bitcoin is taking a breather, but the bigger picture still looks strong.

After climbing inside a clean ascending channel, $BTC has pulled back from the upper trendline. That doesn't automatically mean the trend is over. In healthy bull markets, price often revisits support, shakes out impatient traders, and then decides its next direction.

Right now, Bitcoin is still making higher highs and higher lows. That keeps the bullish structure alive. The current dip looks more like traders locking in profits than a sign of panic selling.

The most important area to watch is $63.8K-$64.0K. If buyers defend this zone and step in with strong volume, Bitcoin could quickly make another run toward $65.5K-$66.0K and test the top of the channel again.

On the other hand, if this support breaks, don't be surprised to see a deeper pullback before the market finds enough strength for the next leg higher. Even strong trends need time to reset.

The Ichimoku cloud and the rising trendline are still supporting the overall bullish outlook. As long as those levels hold, the trend remains in favor of the bulls.

This is one of those moments where patience matters more than excitement. The biggest mistakes often happen when traders chase every green candle instead of waiting for high-probability setups.

Bitcoin is approaching a key decision point. The next reaction around support could set the tone for the next major move. Smart traders are watching closely, staying disciplined, and letting the market reveal its direction instead of trying to predict it.

#SummerCreationCamp

The U.S. military bombed for seven straight nights, Iran blew up an oil tanker by the strait—so who goes crazy first: BTC, crude oil, or gold?

First, let’s talk about three things—each one should keep you up tonight:

**First,** yesterday the U.S. Central Command said, “the strait will remain open,” but today Iran’s Revolutionary Guards directly hit back— the Strait of Hormuz has been “completely closed.” Two oil tankers exploded and caught fire in the southern danger zone. This morning, another Thai-flagged vessel was attacked. Iran said it plainly: if the United States won’t stop, not a single drop of oil will be able to pass.

**Second,** the U.S. has carried out airstrikes against Iran for the seventh consecutive night. For the first time, Iran claimed it attacked U.S. bases in Kuwait and Jordan. The fighting has spread from Iran’s home soil to the entire Middle East U.S. military network.

**Third,** the IEA emergency reserves have released nearly three quarters. The global oil market is moving toward an “empty-oil-tank” situation. Goldman Sachs warned: if the strait is sealed for another month, the 2026 annual average price of Brent could break $100. Wood Mackenzie’s extreme scenario is even harsher—by year-end, oil prices could approach $200.

All right, the three points are done. Now, answer that gut-punch question:

Among BTC, crude oil, and gold—who has the biggest reaction?

My answer might be completely different from what you’re imagining.

**I. Crude oil:** up 16% in a week— the market is already insane

**July 18 close:** WTI at **$82.49 per barrel**, up **4.48%** on the day, and up **14.35%** for the week. Brent at **$88.10 per barrel**, up **4.59%** on the day, and up **15.91%** for the week. The two major benchmarks are rising in sync and hitting new highs since mid-June.

A trader put it like this: “By this weekend, nobody dares to hold a short position.”

Why? On average, the strait transits about **20 million barrels of oil per day**, accounting for nearly **20%** of global supply. Now it’s not only sealed—it’s also been mined. And Iran has already started intercepting tankers trying to cross—using missiles.

What’s even worse is inventories. The IEA has just announced it will release **400 million barrels** of reserves, but the fact that this is the “largest-ever” release already tells you one thing: the situation has become so severe that they have to lay bare the entire stockpile. And after the release, the remaining buffer is nearly zero. When the next shock comes, there will be no “ammunition” left.

Crude oil’s reaction is the biggest—because it directly grabs the throat of the global economy.

**II. Gold:** a safe-haven asset? This week it took the biggest hit

Guess how gold performed this week?

COMEX gold futures fell **2.56%** for the week. That’s the largest weekly drop in six weeks. It rebounded on Friday to around **$4,018**, but for the whole week it still fell **2.6%**.

Oil prices are surging, the strait is closed, U.S. bases are getting hit—and gold is actually dropping?

The reason is brutal: oil prices rise → inflation expectations rise → the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t dare to cut rates and may even hike → the U.S. dollar strengthens → gold falls.

Gold’s logic has been distorted. It was supposed to be a safe-haven asset, but now the market is even more afraid that inflation will force the Fed to hike. And rate hikes are a fatal blow to gold.

Gold’s reaction is the most conflicted—safe-haven demand and fear of rate hikes are tearing at each other.

**III. Bitcoin:** trading sideways like it’s dead, but the crisis is the biggest

This week, Bitcoin kept getting rubbed around in the **$62,000–$65,000** range. On **July 18**, the price was around **$64,000**, down **0.56%** over 24 hours.

Looks “stable”? That is the most dangerous signal.

Because Bitcoin is being squeezed by two forces right now:

Safe-haven demand should have pushed up BTC (the “digital gold” narrative)

Rate-hike expectations are sucking liquidity out

And the second force is crushing the first.

As an analyst put it: “If higher energy prices start pushing inflation back up again, market expectations for rate cuts will weaken. Higher interest rates usually benefit the U.S. dollar, and they also reduce liquidity across the overall financial markets.”

In other words: the more violently oil prices surge, the more dangerous BTC becomes.

And don’t forget—BTC has already fallen from above **$93,000** at the start of **2026** to **$57,800** by the end of June. It’s already as fragile as glass. With yet another inflation shock, whether $60,000 can hold or not is a question mark.

One last line—engraved in your heart:

“Crude oil is going crazy, gold is crying, and Bitcoin is pretending to be dead— but the ones who pretend to be dead are often carried away first.”#PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain #台积电Q2净利暴增77.4% $BTC $XAU $BZ