SNDK worth $1,356—are you brave enough to buy the dip?
First, look at the surface: a sector-wide selloff, and retail investors panicking and shouting “the top is in.”
On June 22, it hit a record high of 2,354, and then it kept plunging all the way down to 1,300—a 42% drop. With Samsung ramping up production, OpenAI’s IPO being postponed, and rumors that Meta has idle computing power, the semiconductor sector got hit across the board. The candlestick chart tells you: 1,300–1,320 is an important support zone. RSI has already entered oversold territory. Panic has reached its peak, and the rebound window is open.
First thing: the stock price got cut in half, but the fundamentals doubled.
Q3 revenue was $5.95 billion, up 251% year over year. Gross margin is close to 80%. No debt + net cash + a $6 billion share repurchase plan. AI giants like Meta, Google, and Microsoft have listed SanDisk as a core beneficiary of AI storage.
Sounds like all good news? But the stock fell from 2,354 to 1,356.
Same company: when June revenue doubled, the stock was 2,354; now with even stronger performance, the stock is 1,356. Is this “a bubble bursting”? No—this is “excessive panic.”
Second thing: AI storage demand hasn’t changed—what changes is your nerve.
Samsung ramping production? That’s to meet demand over the next two years—not a reason to dump the stock. Meta releasing idle computing power? That’s about optimizing efficiency, not cutting AI investment.
Data centers are still under construction. SSDs are still being bought.
SanDisk is a pure NAND player. Enterprise storage demand driven by AI is structural growth.
$6 billion in buybacks = the company thinks its own stock is ridiculously cheap.
The AI narrative hasn’t broken—what’s broken is your faith.
Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that you must pay attention to.
1,300–1,320 is the prior dense high-volume trading area + a psychological line in the sand + the Fibonacci 0.618. If it holds, the first rebound target is 1,450–1,500, and the second target is 1,800+. The August 5 earnings report + the August 13 Investor Day will be major catalysts.
If 1,300 can’t hold, it may pull back to 1,200—or even 1,000.
You decide the battle between bulls and bears—take a look yourself.
One side is:
Q3 revenue surged 251%, gross margin 80%, no debt + $6 billion buyback
AI data-center storage demand is still in an explosive phase
Goldman Sachs and Wedbush target prices of 2,000+
Down 42% from 2,354; RSI is oversold; technical rebound odds are extremely high
The other side is:
Overvaluation (TTM PE 55–65x), sensitive to negative catalysts
Sector selloff + Samsung ramp causing supply concerns
If US tech keeps pulling back, SNDK could fall along with it
If 1,300 breaks down, the next stop is 1,200
Key levels
Resistance overhead: 1,450–1,500 → 1,600–1,700 → 1,800+ (earnings catalyst)
Support below: 1,300–1,320 (strong support) → 1,200–1,250 → 1,000–1,100
Short-term traders:
Go long with a small position at 1,330–1,350, stop-loss at 1,300, target 1,450–1,550. If it rebounds to 1,450–1,500, you can short again, targeting 1,200–1,250.
Swing traders:
Build positions in batches in the 1,300–1,400 range—the logic is long-term AI storage demand. Reduce exposure if it breaks and closes below 1,200–1,250; take profit in batches at 1,800 and 2,000. You can hold before the August 5 earnings report, but strictly manage risk.
Long-term believers:
DCA blindly below 1,300. SanDisk is a core pick for AI infrastructure—analogous to NVDA in 2020. Target: 2,000+ after Investor Day, and 3,000+ in 2027.
SNDK right now is like Nvidia in 2023—
99% of people think “AI hardware has already run up too much,” and then the earnings come out and it doubles.
The day 1,300 holds, you’ll realize:
It wasn’t that SNDK wasn’t good—it was that every time it crashed, you cut losses.
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