Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

DOGE at $0.073—are you going to buy the dip?

First look at the surface: the rollout has landed, but even dogs don’t rally.

Over the past week it inched up 2%, but over the past month it’s down 10%, and over half a year it’s down more than 40%—sliding from the early-June peak of 0.08+ all the way to 0.073. Its market cap of 11 billion has held steady in the top ten, and 24-hour trading volume is moderate—no surge, no crash. Touching $0.07 three times and still not breaking it—bottom may be in, but nobody dares to believe it.

First thing: ÐOGE Pay is live, but why didn’t the market react?

Launched on June 9, it covers 6,000+ merchants, with a MoonPay partnership; the fee is only 1%, and it will be fully rolled out in Q3.

Sounds awesome, right? But look at the chart—DOGE didn’t go up; it fell from 0.08 to 0.073.

Same kind of news: in 2021, when Musk just said “Dogecoin to the Moon,” it pumped 300%. In 2026, a payment rollout only brought 0.04% worth of movement.

What does “expectations are exhausted” mean? It means good news has already been priced in—what’s left is bad news.

Second thing: the SEC says it’s a “digital commodity,” but you may not have realized what that means.

The SEC has officially classified DOGE as a digital commodity, opening up the compliance pathway—ETFs can move in.

Institutions used to be afraid to touch DOGE (afraid of regulation). Now they can.

DOGE spot ETF products are on the way—pensions, hedge funds, and more are about to flood in.

Spot DOGE ETF inflows are limited for now, but once the trend reverses, money will rush in like crazy.

Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that must be taken seriously.

$0.07 has been touched three times, and rejected three times. Every daily candle is filled with small real-body doji; volatility has compressed to the extreme. Both bulls and bears are holding big moves in reserve. Hidden bullish RSI divergence is faintly visible; volume is steady, with no signs of a breakdown.

But don’t forget—0.068 is the final line of defense. Is it the fourth time that holds and triggers a violent rebound, or does it get pierced straight through and smashed all the way to 0.052?

Bulls vs bears—make your own call.

One side says:

Triple bottom at $0.07—strong historical support

ÐOGE Pay is live, and real payment scenarios are expanding

SEC classifies it as a digital commodity, opening compliance channels—ETFs are on the way

Whales keep accumulating; large transfers are active

The other side says:

Down 40% over half a year—the trend still leans bearish

Minting 5 billion DOGE every year, with ongoing 3% inflation continuing to weigh on it

Elon hasn’t called out trades, and community sentiment is low

If $0.068 breaks, there’s room down to $0.064–$0.052

Key levels

Upper resistance: $0.074–$0.076 → $0.08+ → $0.10

Lower support: $0.070 → $0.068 (final line) → $0.064–$0.052

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to $0.070–$0.072 to buy with a light position; stop loss below $0.068; first target $0.078–$0.082. If it breaks above $0.075 with volume, add and chase the long, aiming for $0.10.

For swing traders:

Wait for a volume-backed breakout above $0.075 and hold it to get in on the right-side move. Target $0.10+; stop loss at $0.068. ÐOGE Pay’s full rollout could be the catalyst.

For long-term believers:

Dollar-cost average in batches in the $0.065–$0.075 range. A compliant Meme leader with an 11 billion market cap—SEC gives it an ID, payment rollout is landing, and ETFs are on the way. What are you afraid of? Target $0.15–$0.25—betting on ecosystem expansion plus the return of the bull market.

DOGE right now is like 2023’s MATIC—

99% of people think “this shitcoin has no future,” and then once the compliance channel opens, institutions directly push the price up 3x. #事件合约上线 #特朗普同意Clarity法案纳入伦理条款 #夏日创作营 $BTC $SOL $DOGE

《Mid-year Big Exam for AI Monetization Logic》

At around midnight on the 23rd, Google is about to release its latest earnings report. This report is not only about Google itself; in essence, it is the mid-year big exam for the entire market’s “AI monetization logic,” and a sentiment barometer for recent U.S. stocks, and even for macro risk assets as a whole.

Current market pricing versus expectations

The consensus expectations from Wall Street are already fully dialed in: total revenue of about $116.8 billion (year-over-year +21%), with an expected EPS of $2.89 per share. But this is just the surface. The real deciding factor for life or death is Google Cloud. The market is currently extremely eager for it to deliver the astonishing growth rate of up to over 60% for its cloud business, to prove that the heavy prior investments have not been wasted.

The substantive impact on trading is not how impressive the report looks, but how large funds will reassess their risk appetite based on it. There are two angles:

1、If the earnings report beats expectations across the board and guidance is strong
This is the script for stabilizing the whole picture. As long as Google proves that AI investment can be converted into real money revenue, this “pillar” can hold up the entire hardware and semiconductor industry chain (NVIDIA, TSMC). Once Nasdaq bulls’ sentiment is stabilized, this liquidity tailwind will directly spill over, providing strong support for overall AI U.S. stocks.

2、If the earnings report falls short of expectations, or if Capex (capital expenditure) stays high but revenue guidance is weak
This is the biggest tail risk in the current market. With the AI main narrative extremely crowded, the market’s tolerance is very low. As long as the report shows even a hint of “spending heavily, hard to monetize,” it will immediately trigger panic among funds about AI investment returns. This panic will lead Nasdaq to lead in killing valuations, and then cause cross-asset indiscriminate deleveraging (De-risking).

What should we do in operations and response?

1. I suggest not going long on the left side; press down on exposure before the earnings report.

2. Keep a close eye on the forward-looking indicator: If the earnings report triggers a big drop that is worse than expected, don’t rush to buy Google. First, look at the follow-through strength in the semiconductor sector—SMH. If even the people selling shovels get knocked down too, it means the macro main narrative is wobbling, and exposure must be decisively reduced.

The market is too full right now. As long as the earnings report isn’t good enough, it becomes a negative catalyst. Keep your ammunition and wait for direction confirmation.

$GOOG.US
{stock_us}(GOOG.US)

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Do you want to bottom-pick ACE at $0.089?

First, look at the surface: it fell from ATH $17 to $0.068, down 99.6%.

It’s up 23% over the past 7 days, and up 9% to 19% in 24 hours. Its market cap is only $9 million, circulating supply is 104 million. A falling wedge breakout is imminent—either it will explode higher or make new lows again, with no middle ground.

First thing: From $17 to $0.068—could you hold?

In Dec 2023, ACE launched and hit its peak at $17.2. Institutions called it the “AAA-chain gaming leader,” while the community said “starting with 100x.” Then what happened? It kept dropping—two and a half years—down 99.6%.

$0.068 was the just-made historical low on July 13.

If you bought at $17 and held until now, $1 million becomes $4,000. This isn’t an investment—it’s a “faith tax.”

But right when everyone was despairing—there’s a violent rebound.

Second thing: A 114% jump in three days—what is the market telling you?

Around July 18, ACE surged from $0.0614 to $0.0796, up 29%, and trading volume jumped to $12.2 million. Then it kept pushing, topping out around $0.15385. In 24 hours, it skyrocketed 114%, and trading volume hit 4.51 million USDT—several times the daily average from the previous few days.

Some people say “the reversal is here,” while others curse “dead cat bounce.”

ACE’s circulating supply is already 71% of the total—most of the tokens have already been released. Anything that needed to sell has sold. If there’s still someone in the market now, either they’re “playing dead,” or they came to bottom-pick.

Third thing: The key level at $0.089—big moves up and down

Key technical levels:

Strong support: 0.083-0.085 (recent lows + buy-side absorption zone)

Key support: 0.068-0.070 (historical low—if it breaks, it becomes a bottomless pit)

First resistance: 0.100 (psychological level)

Second resistance: 0.120-0.130

Third resistance: 0.1486-0.1538 (recent highs)

RSI is currently neutral to slightly bullish, and ADX shows trend strength is increasing. But remember—this kind of small-cap coin, technical indicators in front of the whales are just a joke.

Bull-bear divergence

Bulls say:

The fundamentals are solid—an AAA mech game built with the Unity HDRP engine, a self-built Endurance chain, and a biweekly token-burn deflation mechanism

The bottom’s turnover rate surged, similar to the washout structure before last year’s SOL rebound

A falling wedge breakout, MA50 curling upward, and RSI recovering from oversold

Bears say:

“Don’t touch it! Whales used only 2% of their capital to pull a 20% rally—the real buy orders are as thin as paper”

“70% of the volume is exchange internal wash trading; the signal light for retail bag-holders is already flashing red”

Ongoing unlocking pressure—there was a batch unlocked on July 18, and there will be millions of ACE flowing into the market every month

Who’s right? I’ll tell you—both are right. That’s why ACE’s volatility can drive people crazy.

Aggressive short-term:

Entry: build positions in batches at 0.085-0.090

Stop loss: set strictly below 0.080 (if it breaks, leave immediately)

Targets: first 0.100-0.120, second 0.130-0.150

Swing / medium-term:

Wait for the daily close to hold above 0.100 before adding on the right side

Key watch items: game user data, execution of the burn mechanism, and unlock progress

Reduce positions in batches in the 0.15-0.20 range, keep a “bottom-feeder” to gamble

Long-term value type:

Small DCA under 0.08, but don’t expect a short-term overnight fortune

A fundamental reversal takes time and needs user growth to validate

End of 2026 target is 0.20-0.30, assuming the game actually has people playing

Break below 0.068 and hit hard stop without conditions—don’t ask why.

Risk first: ACE is a small-cap, high-volatility coin—use only spare money, and your position size must be no more than 3% of your total funds. This isn’t a joke: from 0.068 to 0.15 to 0.089, three days can either make you rich or blow you up.

ACE is like ORDI in early 2024—

99% think “it already dropped 99%, it can drop another 99%.” Then a wave of narrative came—and it doubled in three days.

But the opposite is true too—if the broader market keeps crashing, 0.068 might not be the bottom, but halfway up the mountain. #事件合约上线 #GUSD年化升至3.8% #夏日创作营 $BTC $ORDI $ACE

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The number of U.S. Bitcoin holders has surpassed that of gold—about 49.6 million Americans hold $BTC , while the number of people holding gold is about 28.8 million.

$ZEC is testing the lower boundary of its falling channel.

Support around $510 is the key level to watch. A hold here keeps the structure constructive, while a breakout above $540–545 could trigger the next leg toward $570+.

MACD is still soft, so confirmation matters more than anticipation.

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🔥 HUGE:

A whale has accumulated $94M worth of $ETH ‌ this month.

While retail investors are selling into the fear, large holders appear to be doing the opposite.

Retail is panic selling.

Whales are panic buying. 🐋

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How long has it been since you stopped and took a good look at this world?

If I had to pick one chart I'd trust over opinions this week...
It might just be $MSFT.
Structure first.
Narrative second.

What’s most worth watching in the market right now isn’t whether BTC can pull another big bullish candle, but the fact that risk assets are being tugged in opposite directions by two forces at the same time.
One side is money flowing back in: BTC is currently holding around $65.8k; the latest data shows that spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $132 million, while ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $36.7 million. Institutional buying has started to recover, but the strength is still not enough to confirm a trend reversal.
The other side is macro pressure: the situation in the Middle East continues to push up energy prices, with Brent crude already nearing $94. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.6%. Oil price gains imply that inflation expectations may start to rise again, and the room for rate cuts is being squeezed—an uncomfortable environment for both high-multiple tech stocks and crypto assets.
On the U.S. stock market side, semiconductors and large-cap tech stocks are rebounding, so risk appetite hasn’t broken down for now; but gold is strengthening in parallel, suggesting that capital hasn’t truly dropped its guard. What we have now looks more like “hedging while chasing rebounds,” not a full risk-on.
My understanding is simple: as long as BTC holds $65k, there’s still a chance to test the upside further in the short term; if ETF inflows can’t continue, and meanwhile oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields keep climbing, then we need to guard against the rebound turning back into a de-risking opportunity.
This level isn’t suitable for emotionally chasing bids. First, check whether there’s funding continuity, and only then decide whether to add to positions. Tonight, focus on the U.S. tech sector, the 10-year Treasury yield, and BTC’s ability to hold near $65k.

BTC at $65,860—are you waiting for a crash?

First, look at the surface: resistance was hit and rejected, and retail traders are hesitating.

Today BTC is quoted at $65,860, down 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Over the past month, it rebounded from around $62,500 by 5–6%, but it’s still down nearly half from the all-time high of $126,200. The price is back above the 50-day moving average, the MACD is about to form a golden cross, and volume is picking up. This isn’t a “run for your life” signal—it’s the standard setup for the end of a bear market.

First thing: the CLARITY Act is here—an even bigger nuclear blast than an ETF.

The House has passed it, the Senate Banking Committee is pushing it forward, and the White House has agreed to the ethical provisions. Once this bill is implemented, the crypto market will, for the first time, have a clear, explicit federal regulatory framework.

Institutions used to hesitate to enter: afraid of compliance risk.

Institutions now dare to enter: “The law says you can.”

BlackRock, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs—those trillion-level players are waiting for this day.

Second thing: ETF flows reverse—smart money is back.

On July 20, net inflows were $227 million; on July 21, $203 million. In recent days, the cumulative total has exceeded $700 million. BlackRock’s IBIT leads the charge.

June: ETFs saw day-after-day outflows, and retail panic—“institutions are running.”

July: ETFs saw day-after-day inflows, and retail is still panicking—“this is a bull trap.”

Same price range, same retail “newbies.” People who cut losses at 63k in June are now at 65k waiting for a further drop. They always wait for a “lower price,” and then they always miss the move.

Third thing: on-chain data is hard-core to the point of scary.

Long-term holders have locked up 83% of the circulating supply—an all-time high. Old coins hardly move; the supply side is drying up.

There is less and less BTC on exchanges.

Every drop you see is the last batch of panic sellers handing over their chips.

Supply is shrinking, demand is rising (ETFs + institutions)—so where will the price go?

It’s a battle between bulls and bears—judge for yourself:

One side says:
CLARITY Act is close to passing, and regulatory clarity is a historic-level positive catalyst.
ETFs sucked up $700 million in three days—institutions are accelerating their entry.
LTHs lock 83%—a record—and the supply side is extremely tight.
MACD is about to form a golden cross—the technical picture is turning warm.
From 126k down to 58k, everything that could be sold has been sold.

The other side says:
66k–67k failed to break through three times—real short-term resistance exists.
New whales’ cost basis is in the 66k–72k range, which may create selling pressure.
Macro: even though CPI has eased, geopolitics and tariffs still have uncertainty.

Key levels

Resistance overhead: 66,500 → 69,700 (21-week SMA) → 72k
Support below: 63k–64,000 → 60,000 (the “iron floor”)

For short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to 63,000–64,000 to build positions in batches, with a stop-loss at 62,500. If 66,500 breaks upward on volume, chase long—targets: 68,000 → 70,000–72,000.

For swing traders:
Hold a core position, add only after 66,500 is confirmed to be firmly held on the daily chart. The day the CLARITY Act is officially passed will most likely open strong and run high. People who chase that day will probably regret why they didn’t buy earlier.

For long-term believers:
Continue DCA if below 65k. When it fell from 126k to 58k, you held through; when it rose from 58k to 65k, you start panicking?

You’re not waiting for Bitcoin to drop—you’re waiting for someone smarter than you to change their mind—yet they won’t.

BTC is like the spring of 2023 right now—

99% of people think “the bear market still has more to go,” and then after the ETF is approved, the price doubles. #事件合约上线 #特朗普同意Clarity法案纳入伦理条款 #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $SOL

A very interesting phenomenon in the industry in 2026 is worth deep thought: many AI on-chain applications that market themselves as decentralized actually have their underlying infrastructure hosted on other blockchains. The project team holds the product development rights, but gas pricing, node operations, and network upgrades are all controlled by others.

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$58 HYPE—are you brave enough to buy the dip?

First, look at the surface: from 76 down to 58—the panic sentiment is maxed out.

HYPE has been pulling back from its June 16 historical high of 76.85 to around 58.5. The biggest drop is close to 24%. The daily chart shows a “three black crows” pattern. Everyone online is circulating screenshots claiming “core contributor unlocks, then dumps.” The daily chart has already formed a bullish triangle flag pattern, with the highs and lows converging—quiet before the storm.

First thing: the “Tragedy of the Commons” conspiracy theory—the script that makes you cut your losses.

On July 6, 9.92 million HYPE from core contributors were unlocked, worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The moment the news hit, Twitter was flooded with posts panicking about “large shareholders cashing out.” The media gave this narrative a name: “Tragedy of the Commons.”

But what you didn’t see is the other side: Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund, over the past more than a year, has already been automatically buying back and burning HYPE worth more than $837 million through protocol revenue. 97%-99% of trading fees are used for buybacks and burn—this isn’t wishful thinking; it’s an actual deflationary flywheel already running.

Second thing: ETF money flows—BTC and ETH are bleeding, while HYPE is feeding.

Spot ETF net inflows continue for Bitwise BHYP, 21Shares THYP, etc., with early inflows already exceeding $170 million

Meanwhile, BTC and ETH ETFs see major outflows

Grayscale is also involved in rolling out HYPE-related products

Institutions are voting with their feet. They pull funds out of the “old kings” BTC/ETH and put them into HYPE—the “new king.”

Third thing: technical signals have appeared that must be taken seriously.

The daily chart forms a bullish triangle flag—this is a textbook-quality continuation pattern. The highs are converging, the lows are rising, and volume is shrinking—classic signs of a breakout coming.

Support at 58.5-59 has been defended multiple times. It’s also the 100-day EMA and the area where institutional buy orders are most concentrated. MACD histogram is narrowing, RSI has returned to the neutral range—this correction is nearly over.

You decide the long/short showdown:

One side says:

Protocol revenue over $1 billion, $837 million buybacks and burns, deflationary flywheel still spinning

ETF net inflows continue; institutions are adding on the buy side despite BTC/ETH outflows

Bullish triangle flag forms; breakout above 64 targets 70-80+

Market share over 50%, the on-chain perpetual trading leader

The other side says:

Down from 76 to 58—massive short-term trapped positions

Core contributor unlocks every month—real sell pressure exists

Regulatory risk not fully eliminated (CFTC discussions, MAS warning in Singapore)

If 58.5 breaks, a pullback to 53-55 is possible

Key levels

Upper resistance: 63-64 (triangle flag upper rail) → 67-68 → 72-74 (ATH)

Lower support: 58.5-59 (strong support) → 53-55 (if it breaks)

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 58.5-59 to enter a small long with low leverage, stop loss at 57.5, first target 63-64. If there’s a breakout with expanding volume at 64, add more; stop loss at 60, then target 68-72.

For swing players:

Hold the core position and wait for confirmation of the triangle flag breakout. If it stands firm above 64 with volume, directly look for 70-80+. If 58.5 breaks with volume, reduce exposure and stay on the sidelines, then look to re-buy at 53-55.

For long-term believers:

Scale in in batches within the 58-62 range. HYPE isn’t a meme, not an air coin—it’s a deflationary asset that generates real income every day and gets buyback-and-burned every day. By end of 2026, the target is 80-100+—betting on continued institutional inflows plus sustained growth in trading volume.

Right now, HYPE is like SOL back in 2023—

99% of people think “the FTX shadow hasn’t cleared,” and it turns out SOL went from $8 to $200, a 25x gain. #事件合约上线 #特朗普同意Clarity法案纳入伦理条款 #夏日创作营 $BTC $ETH $HYPE

Gm

Tonight’s earnings report will definitely drop!
If Google’s earnings report is good, it means it doesn’t need to keep burning cash anymore, and hardware stocks will fall. If the earnings report is bad, it means it can’t monetize, and it will cut spending, and hardware stocks will still fall!
Anyway, no matter how it turns out tonight, Wall Street has a reason to smash the market! 😏

When it comes to the coins on Robin Chain, it feels like you should look at the daily chart to trade. Some of the application coins being built get bought up at lower levels, then held to “eat” the breakout spike and capture the spike gains.