Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Ceasefire for 48 hours—and it’s already over: Iran’s missiles launch, and oil prices go wild

48 hours.

Just 48 hours.

On July 26, after several days with no further military clashes between the US and Iran, oil prices plunged over three days by 16%. Brent slid from above $100 to $84. Crypto surged on the good news; Bitcoin briefly climbed above $65,600.

Everyone let out a breath.

Then what?

In the early morning of Beijing time on July 29.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched multiple ballistic missiles from within Iran, targeting US military bases in Jordan.

The US military said all of them were intercepted.

But that’s not the point.

The point is—this unofficial ceasefire falls apart after 48 hours.

WTI oil prices jumped back up by more than 5%, with the intraday high reaching $83.30.

You think that’s the end?

That same day, two messages came out at the same time.

First: Oman proposed a “50/50 joint management” plan for the Strait of Hormuz—Iran and Oman each control half of the sea lanes, and ships would voluntarily pay fees for passage.

Iran rejected it. Iran said: the sea lanes for ships must be fully controlled by our side.

Second: The US and Iran are nearing the restoration of the previous 60-day memorandum of understanding. The news said that Washington’s approval is still pending.

Missiles are launched while talks are underway.

Fighting while negotiating. Fighting on and off.

This isn’t the first time.

The memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran in June is, in essence, just a temporary arrangement—to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and to set up a negotiation mechanism. None of the nuclear program, regional security, or control rights over the strait were resolved.

The war has already been going for five months.

The US wants to force Iran into compliance with military power—Iran didn’t back down.

The US wants to talk—but none of the core contradictions have been resolved.

They can’t win, can’t reach an agreement, and can’t get out.

For the crypto market, what does this mean?

The geopolitical premium in oil prices won’t easily exit.

If the ceasefire breaks after 48 hours, what about next time—48 hours? 72 hours? Or will it escalate straight away?

Every time there’s an “expectation of a ceasefire,” it’s a false breakout. Every time “missiles launch,” it’s a real rebound.

On Monday, Bitcoin even kept rising on the upside momentum from the news of oil prices plunging—so what happened? It slid all the way down from above $65,600, breaking below $64,000.

The good news has been digested; the bad news is only just beginning.

Now the question is very simple—

In this deadlock of fighting while talking, will it ultimately lead to a ceasefire, or a renewed escalation?

My take: in the short term, a real ceasefire isn’t in sight.

Iran won’t accept the 50/50 plan, and the US can’t give up control rights over the Strait of Hormuz. The memorandum of understanding is just a stalling tactic; the fundamental contradictions haven’t been resolved.

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, oil prices won’t truly fall. As long as oil prices don’t truly fall, inflation expectations won’t retreat. As long as inflation expectations don’t retreat, the Fed won’t dare to turn dovish.

Three layers of bad news, linking up step by step.

On the trading side, there’s just one line of advice:

Don’t bet on direction with geopolitics.

You think it’s a dip-buy—maybe it’s catching a falling knife. You think it’s escaping the top—maybe you’re selling right at the start of the rally.

In this market right now, it’s not about technicals, not about fundamentals—it’s about whether the Iranian Revolutionary Guard will press the launch button in the next second. #USD1持币生息最高8% #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC #长鑫开盘跌7.7% $BZ $CL

Anyone who keeps shouting “buy the dip” is fucking gambling—block them!
Claiming that “the bad news is exhausted,” “the technical bottom is in,” and that “the ultimate bottom” is all fucking gamblers just trying to scam clicks—nothing more than betting!
Right now, any rally can at most be a weak rebound after a sharp plunge.
But the rebound won’t have much strength.
Unless two extremely strong positive signals appear, it won’t stop the decline and trigger a rebound.
U.S. Treasury yields fall rapidly and sharply, and U.S. tech stocks collectively stabilize and surge higher.
South Korea rolls out clear policies to suspend the liquidation of leveraged ETFs and release liquidity, completely ending the stampede-driven selloff.
Before those two signals show up, a downward range-bound drift and probing for even lower support is the most likely scenario.

Speechless, South Korea really is an amazing country.

The USD1 you have in hand should be moved to a new battlefield—it’s time to earn interest from Gate.
Gate’s USD1 holding-and-earning advantages are as follows:
✅ No lock-up
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This capital can be withdrawn at any time. There aren’t many such high-yield, instant-access savings options—so I sincerely recommend it.
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As the sea turns to mulberry fields, humanity itself is a miracle; this brief span of life can also be written into an eternal, unforgettable chapter.

The SOL token $Diary “Foqi’s Diary” I’m watching
9MEYExzYucFLtAk2v8PCdw4SM4xox5o4gPZEywyvpump

This week, there are two things about Foqi that may continue to unfold:

1⃣ His personal diary is being made public
Recently, part of it has been released, which has already sparked discussion across the whole internet. Not everything has been published yet, and an insider says more will be revealed.

2⃣ He is set to attend a Senate hearing
Beijing time: 2026-07-29 20:30

$KAITO on the Rise!
$KAITO is showing solid momentum on currently trading at $1.2514 (+4.03%) after touching a 24h high of $1.2919!

Key Market Highlights:

24h Low / High: $1.0856 – $1.2919
24h Volume: 6.25M KAITO ($7.43M USDT)
Trending #8 in the AI category

After a powerful upward rally from the $1.16 level,$KAITO is currently consolidating around $1.25.

Will the bulls gather enough strength to break past the $1.29 resistance and push for a new peak?

Keep $KAITO on your watchlis#NFTSectorSurgesOver8% #USD1StakingEarnUpTo8%APR

Profit jumps 557% to a record high—yet the stock price plunges 17%—the market is telling you a brutal truth

When you see this news, what’s your reaction?

“SK Hynix second-quarter operating profit was 60.54 trillion won, up 557% year-on-year, setting a historical record.”

“Revenue was 79.32 trillion won, up 257% year-on-year, also hitting a historical record.”

“Operating margin is 76.3%, even higher than Nvidia.”

And then?

SK Hynix fell more than 17%, setting the biggest single-day drop record.

Samsung Electronics fell more than 10%, and its market cap slipped below $900 billion.

South Korea’s KOSPI index fell more than 11%, triggering a circuit breaker.

A-shares storage-chip concepts crashed in sync—GigaDevice hit the daily limit down, with a drawdown of more than 58% within the month.

In one night, the global semiconductor sector was brought down by the same batch of earnings.

You’re probably wondering—

“Profit is up 557%—why did it still fall?”

Two words: expectations.

The market never cares about whether it’s “good,” but whether it’s “good enough.”

For SK Hynix, revenue was 79.32 trillion won, while the market expected 84 trillion won—short by 5.5%.

Operating profit was 60.54 trillion won, while the market expected 64 trillion won—short by 5.7%.

Just that little gap, and market value evaporated by several tens of billions of dollars.

From the June historical high, Hynix has cumulatively dropped 57%, with its market cap shrinking by nearly $605.4k.

Earning 60 trillion won in one quarter, yet losing $793.2k in a little over a month.

But the story isn’t that simple.

The reason Hynix missed expectations is precisely because it sold too much HBM.

What does that mean?

About 50% of Hynix’s revenue is locked in via long-term supply agreements (LTA). Contracts of 3 to 5 years lock in pricing.

This is usually a good thing—customers rush to sign long-term deals, which signals you’re the industry leader.

But here’s the catch.

In the second quarter, spot prices for general DRAM surged 58% month-on-month to 63%, while NAND rose 70% to 75%.

Because of LTA price locks, Hynix’s average realized DRAM selling price rose only about 30% month-on-month, and NAND rose only 50% to 55%.

The higher the HBM share, the more is locked into long-term contracts—and the less it actually benefits from price increases.

That’s the curse of being an AI leader—you’re ahead, but your upside elasticity is smaller.

What’s even more ironic?

On the same day, after Seagate Technology released its earnings, its stock jumped 6.6% against the trend. Management said near-term hard drive capacity has already been locked through 2028.

On one side, capacity is being reserved all the way to 2029; on the other, the stock price falls to the circuit breaker level.

In the earnings call, Hynix said: “We haven’t seen any signs that AI investment is slowing down. HBM4 has already entered mass production and is shipping. Long-term agreements typically lock in for 5 years.”

But the market doesn’t listen.

Because the market has already switched its pricing logic—from “how much more AI can rise” to “has the cycle topped out?”

Let me say something that stings:

There’s a hard rule in the storage-chip industry—when the industry recovers from the bottom, it’s an investment opportunity. When profit margins reach their peak, it often means the cycle is turning.

When the industry was sluggish in 2023, Hynix had negative gross margin for five consecutive quarters.

In 2026, operating margin is 76.3%, higher than Nvidia.

The strongest in history is often also the most dangerous signal at the peak of the cycle.

TrendForce’s latest data shows that the estimated month-on-month decline in third-quarter DRAM contract prices has widened from 5% to 8% to 13%.

Price increases can’t go any higher.

What does this mean for the crypto market?

Storage chips are the lifeblood—the underlying core—of AI infrastructure.

HBM4 prices are expected to rise from $2 to $4–$5 in the second half of the year—costs are going up.

But general DRAM prices are already falling—demand is diverging.

The AI storage narrative is shifting from “all in” to “structural opportunity.”

Those crypto assets that followed storage-stock sentiment will likely see their next big swings driven by this round of repricing.

A 557% profit increase isn’t a negative—“only up 557%” is. #USD1持币生息最高8% #长鑫开盘跌7.7% #Bitmine持有578万枚ETH $SKHY $SAMSUNG $MU

Is there a U.S.-listed stock that’s about to bounce first?
After reviewing the tape, I saw that $SPCX in U.S. stocks broke below the low and then flipped higher right after the open last night, and it also didn’t follow through on the downside during pre-market today—giving the impression that it’s showing strength and may be the first to rebound.
spcx has pulled back 53% from its IPO high. Last night’s sell-off stop-and-rebound suggests that near-term sell pressure may be exhausted. It could also be that some capital is starting to position early for the upcoming key events.
Next month, SPCX has two first-time major events:
1、SPCX will release its first earnings report since the IPO (Q2 results on August 4). Currently, there’s disagreement in the market about SPCX’s real profitability in AI and space hardware (xAI, Starlink, and launch business). If the earnings report can prove its top-tier profits and revenue, then it would be a major positive catalyst and could trigger a strong rebound first.
2、But there’s also bad news: on August 6 (the third day after the earnings release), the IPO shares will unlock. This will be the first unlock after the IPO; early investors will be allowed to sell on that day—an overhang/sell-pressure signal.
But what matters most is the earnings report. If the report is good, the selling pressure will be lighter. If it’s bad, even a huge unlock of shares could trigger a chain-reaction sell-pressure stampede.
Also, the 13th Starship launch window is approaching. Any upside-than-expected success with Starship will be reflected directly in the price action.
From a technical perspective, the bottom-bounce flip is a signal. During the day, you can build your core position first. If at night the fundamental impact doesn’t break below the new low, and it finds support near 110 and stops falling, then that would be the best setup with more upside.
Enough—I've held back from buying the dip in U.S. stocks for a long time. I’m afraid to touch storage stocks, so I’ll start with SPCX.
$SPCX

Is there a U.S. stock that’s going to rebound first?
After reviewing, I saw that in U.S. stocks, $SPCX reversed upward by breaking below the lows right after the open last night, and it didn’t follow the decline in pre-market today, which gives the impression that it’s showing strength and could be the first to rebound.
Since its IPO, spcx has pulled back 53% from its all-time high. The selloff-to-stabilization rebound last night suggests that near-term selling pressure has been exhausted. There may be capital that is positioning early on the left side to bet on upcoming key events.
Next month, SPCX has two first major events:
1. SPCX will release its first earnings report since its IPO (Q2 earnings on August 4). At present, the market is divided over spcx’s true profitability in AI and space hardware (xAI, Starlink, and launch business). If the earnings report can prove its top-tier profits and revenue, that would be a major positive catalyst and could trigger a strong rebound first.
2. But there’s also bad news: on August 6 (the third day after the earnings report), the IPO share unlocks. This is the first unlock after the IPO. Early investors will be able to sell that day—this is a sign of selling pressure.
But most importantly, it’s still the earnings report. If the earnings are good, the selling pressure will be lighter; if the earnings are bad, the “huge unlock” supply could also trigger a chain-reaction selloff and cascading liquidation.
Also, the 13th Starship launch window is approaching. Any success that exceeds expectations for Starship will directly show up in the price action.
From a technical perspective, a “breakdown-to-reversal” is a signal. During the day, you can get core positions in first. If tonight the fundamental impact doesn’t break below the new lows, and it holds and stabilizes around 110, that would be the best opportunity to take on more longs.
Enough. I’ve held back from buying the dip in U.S. stocks for a long time, and I don’t dare touch storage. Then I’ll start with spcx.
$SPCX
{future}(SPCXUSDT)

Storing it is scary—crypto is gentler. 😂 SK Hynix released its Q2 financial report this morning, and both sales and profits came in below expectations. It only dropped 8% yesterday, and today SK Hynix is down another 10%. It’s unclear whether summer is still around for Korean girls, but on Hyperliquid, the summer of the biggest Hynix “air force” is still here: his Hynix short position has unrealized gains of $9.56 million.

Tonight, the AI narrative faces a life-or-death test—Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon turn in their papers, and only one number can save the day

Do you still have a position in technology stocks?

If you do, don’t sleep tonight.

Google’s earnings comprehensively beat expectations—cloud revenue surged 82%, with $514 billion in outstanding orders—so what happened? The stock fell more than 7%, losing a whole “CATL” day in one day.

Tesla posted revenue of 28.2 billion—an all-time high—so what happened? It dropped 14%.

The market’s logic has completely changed.

Revenue beats expectations? Good news. Capital expenditures beat expectations? Bad news. Both revenue and capital expenditures beat expectations? A crash.

Wall Street now only recognizes one formula: how much you burned and how much you have left—everything else is just talk.

Tonight, Microsoft and Meta will release their earnings after the close. Amazon will follow tomorrow.

These three set of answers will decide one core question: is Google’s disaster an isolated case, or is it the collective death sentence for the entire AI track?

First, Microsoft.

The market expected revenue of $87.67 billion, up 14.7% year over year; earnings per share of $4.22. Azure cloud growth guidance: 39%-40%.

But what really keeps the market up is this number: for full-year 2026, capital expenditures will be $190 billion, up 61% year over year.

Burning more than $40 billion in a single quarter. Microsoft’s last-quarter free cash flow has already fallen to $15.8 billion, from $25.7 billion two quarters ago.

Growth is slowing, but the burn rate is accelerating.

That gap is the biggest risk tonight.

Next, Meta.

Analysts expected revenue of $60.26 billion, up 26.8% year over year; earnings per share of $7.22.

What about capex? Full-year guidance: $125 billion to $145 billion. For Q2 alone, the estimate is $33.7 billion, double year over year.

More terrifying still—Meta’s head of infrastructure just said that the constraints have spread from GPUs to memory, CPU, and storage.

What does that mean?

It means the supply-chain bottlenecks are worsening, and it means capex can only be raised, not pulled back.

Finally, Amazon.

AWS has $244 billion in outstanding orders, up 40% year over year. Over the past 12 months, free cash flow crashed from $25.9 billion to $1.2 billion.

UBS has already cut its target price early, from 333 to 305.

And Amazon plans to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026.

$200 billion—more aggressive than Google.

Google has already used firsthand experience to tell the market—“Good performance” can’t save “bad cash flow.”

Revenue beats expectations? The market claps for you. Profit beats expectations? The market gives you a thumbs-up. But if you dare to increase capex? The market immediately smashes the stock.

The Nasdaq 100 index is already down 10% from its June peak, officially entering a technical pullback. Over 38 trading days, it moved from peak to pullback.

It came faster and hit harder than the one in March.

Because this time, the market is starting to doubt an even more fundamental question:

Can the AI story actually make money?

Tonight, only one number can save the day.

Not how much you beat revenue expectations. Not how much you beat profit expectations.

It’s whether capex guidance does not exceed expectations.

If Microsoft says, “We’ll keep $190 billion unchanged”—the stock rebounds. If Meta says, “We’ll keep $135 billion steady”—the stock holds up. If anyone dares to raise it further—wait to take Google’s second slap.

But what’s the reality?

The reality is: none of these three dares to slow down.

Microsoft is grabbing GPUs. Meta is grabbing data centers. Amazon is grabbing compute power.

Whoever stops will be thrown out of the AI table.

This is the prisoner’s dilemma—knowing that burning money means death, but burning less means dying even faster.

For crypto players:

Tonight’s earnings will be released after the close in the US stock market. In the traditional trading session, you can only stare blankly.

But the exchange has already launched tokenized US stock spot and futures—MSFT, META, AMZN—trade 7×24 hours.

Once the earnings are out, you can react immediately without waiting for the market to open the next day.

Don’t wait like an idiot.

Three takeaways for tonight’s playbook—only three sentences:

First, don’t bet on the direction of the earnings report. If any of the three giants blows up, it will drag down the entire tech sector, and in turn suppress risk appetite in the crypto market.

Second, watch capex guidance. Whoever raises it is the next Google. Whoever keeps it steady is the short-term safe haven.

Third, keep cash on hand. If any one of the three “raises capex beyond expectations,” tech stocks could still drop one more leg—that’s the chance to add.

The AI cash-burning war is entering its second phase. In phase one, it’s about who tells the better story. In phase two, it’s about who can burn through the money.

After tonight, the answer will be revealed. #USD1持币生息最高8% #GateCard消费返现最高8% #明尼苏达预测市场禁令被叫停 $MSFT $METAG $AMZN

This drop…
For those who don’t know, it looks like the Federal Reserve raised rates by 50 basis points.
……

This drop…
For people who don’t know, it looks like the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 50 basis points.
……

1⃣ One week ago, Multicoin Capital transferred 395k hyperliquid:native tokens ($37 million) into Coinbase, and then went on to apply for more HYPE to redeem from staking.
2⃣ This early morning, 1.97 million HYPE ($108 million) successfully exited staking after a 7-day Pending period.
3⃣ Of the HYPE successfully redeemed—86k tokens ($4.78 million)—were transferred to Coinbase 3 hours ago.

Well, Guilin, under normal circumstances, is “the one who fires his horse ahead” as a rule—he calls it early: there won’t be any rise. Whoever starts shouting about going up or down is just being mocked.

This week could be a turning point for the overall market—at a stage when the trend may be shifting. Just now, while I was out doing my morning exercise, I sorted out my thoughts, wrote them down, and put this together for you to read. It’s a sincere, pure hand-typed X post. I hope you’ll respect my hard work—so let’s do a one-click triple, something like that.

Bank of America calls it “unprecedented,” while Deutsche Bank bets on “two votes against”—this evening’s Fed, with the market pricing an “out-of-rules” decision

What does a 30.5% rate-hike probability mean?

Based on the script from the past 30 years—it means it’s “impossible.”

Bank of America combed through all data since 1994 and reached a conclusion: the Fed has never raised rates when the market-implied probability of a rate hike was below 60%.

60% is that invisible red line. 30.5%? Not even half the line.

But tonight, the entire market is taking this 30.5% seriously.

Citi says this is “the biggest moment of disagreement since September 2024.” JPMorgan says it’s “the hardest to predict in recent years.”

A thing that should be “impossible” is now being priced by Wall Street as “possible.”

What does this indicate?

It indicates that this time is truly different.

Where is it different? Two lines.

The first line: historical convention is broken.

A month ago, the market was nearly certain that rates would stay put in July. In June, CPI came in below expectations, falling to 3.5%, and core CPI year-over-year dropped to 2.6%—everything pointed to “wait.”

But then three things happened:

First, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire fell apart, and Brent crude surged above $100. Since the June meeting, oil prices are up 25%.

Second, Trump announced new tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 countries.

Third, AI investment has remained strong, driving growth in related demand.

With these three factors stacking together, the probability of a rate hike in July jumped from 10% to 30%.

One data point took the market from “certain” to “anxious.”

The second line: cracks within the Fed.

Deutsche Securities predicts: even if rates are kept unchanged, Hamarck and Logan would cast two votes against, supporting a rate hike.

What do two votes against mean?

It means the “keep unchanged” outcome itself is a hawkish signal.

It means the Fed is no longer speaking with a single voice, and internal disagreements have been made public.

And the biggest variable is the person sitting in the chair—the one as Chairman: Kevin Wosh.

He did something that past Fed chairs haven’t even dared to imagine in the past decade:

He scrapped “forward guidance.”

Previously, the Fed would tell you in advance “what we plan to do.” The market would have direction, expectations, and a sense of security.

Wosh didn’t do that. He said: every meeting is a real decision meeting, and I won’t tell you the answer ahead of time.

So what happened?

The market lost its compass.

Goldman Sachs says investors believe the July meeting outcome has “abnormally high uncertainty.” Nick Timiraos, the “Fed’s megaphone,” directly said: even he can’t figure it out.

A Fed in which even the “megaphone” fails—is this still the Fed we know?

At 2:00 a.m. tonight, there are four possibilities.

Scenario A: keep unchanged + mild wording (highest probability, about 50%)

Short-term dovish. But don’t get too excited—Wosh’s press conference could revise things at any time.

Scenario B: keep unchanged + two votes against (probability about 28%)

On the surface it stays unchanged, but it’s hawkish in substance. The two dissenting votes by Hamarck and Logan will tell the market that a rate hike is just one breath away.

Scenario C: an unexpected 25bp rate hike (probability about 20%)

A huge jolt in the short term. JPMorgan predicts the S&P 500 would fall 1.5%-2%, and the Nasdaq 100’s downside could roughly double.

But don’t just stare at the stock market. Bank of America says that if there’s a rate hike in July, it would be “unprecedented”—it would bring forward 2026’s rate-hike expectations from 45 basis points to 60 basis points, while “establishing Wosh’s credibility on independence and anti-inflation.”

Put into plain language: this rate hike is laying the groundwork for more rate hikes in the future.

Scenario D: keep unchanged + Wosh’s vague guidance (lowest probability, but the most torturous)

Because there is no forward guidance, the market will fall into a guessing game.

Every word will be over-interpreted. Every sentence will be chewed over again and again.

In the end, three truths—

First, the outcome of this decision may not be that important.

What matters is the wording. Whether the statement deletes “patience.” What Wosh says—and doesn’t say—at the press conference.

In the rebuilding of the framework, every word has pricing power.

Second, the Fed is no longer the kind of Fed that “won’t surprise the market.”

In the past, the average error between the implied fed-funds futures rate and the final policy rate was only 2.4 basis points. This time, the error could be measured in “bps.”

What Wosh wants is precisely this uncertainty. He wants the market to relearn how to “guess.”

Third, no matter what happens tonight—

The probability of a rate hike before September is close to 100%.

Haitong Securities has already said: in the baseline scenario, the probability of Wosh hiking before September is close to 100%.

Tonight is just the appetizer. The main course is in September. #USD1持币生息最高8% #长鑫开盘跌7.7% #Strategy首次回购STRC $BTC $ETH $XAU

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Fed Chair Powell will, as usual, hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m.
Facing what the industry currently calls the most difficult-to-predict Fed decision, JPMorgan Chase’s U.S. Markets Information and Trading Desk, in its latest research report, expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, while also seeing at least two hawkish dissenting votes—these include objections from Hammack and Logan.
The Lighthouse lays out five scenario forecasts for the Fed’s decision and the potential path of the S&P 500 index (ranked by probability from high to low):
① The Fed keeps rates unchanged while taking a hawkish stance (probability 50%)—the S&P 500’s trading range for today is up 0.25% to down 0.5%. This is the current baseline forecast: the Fed will keep rates unchanged based on strong labor market/economic growth, but will remain alert to inflation—recent energy price trends suggest another round of inflation may be about to arrive.
② The Fed keeps rates unchanged while taking a dovish stance (probability 28%)—the S&P 500 is expected to rise 0.5%-1%. This is the most favorable outcome for stocks.
③ The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points (probability 20%)—the S&P 500 is expected to fall 1.5%-2%, and the Nasdaq 100’s decline could double again. With the market shifting toward avoiding momentum stocks and AI-related stocks, the Russell 2000 may perform relatively better in this pullback.
④ The Fed raises rates by 50 basis points (probability 1%)—the S&P 500 falls 2%-4%. If the Fed also releases information indicating this rate hike is only a temporary measure to address traditional inflation indicators and should not be interpreted as the start of a series of hikes, the downside could be limited.
⑤ The Fed cuts rates (probability 1%)—the S&P 500’s trading range is up 1% to down 1.5%. The reason stocks could have a negative outcome is: if the market views this as a sign that the Fed has lost independence, it would lead to rising yields, a higher breakeven inflation rate, higher volatility, and weaker equities.