Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

July 30 market recap
U.S. stocks finally staged a big rebound, and the Nasdaq ended six straight days of losses!
After the Fed’s negative surprise yesterday shook the market, sentiment has fully digested it today.
With another set of soft earnings beating expectations, demand for AI compute power is genuinely strong, and funds rushed back aggressively into tech and chips.
The biggest highlight: storage chips, which had been hit the hardest earlier, surged violently—Micron, Hynix, Western Digital, and Seagate all jumped 15%–25%.
Semiconductors and AI hardware rebounded across the board, and tech growth finally showed signs of recovery.
The capital flow is also very clear:
Selling off defensive oil and consumer stocks, then rushing back into chips and AI.
All mega-tech stocks closed green: Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla all collectively repaired, and Chinese concept stocks also continued to rise, with sentiment improving more and more.
Right now, the market:
1. Rate-hike panic has temporarily eased
2. Earnings have confirmed demand for AI, compute, and storage
3. Previously oversold tech is seeing a round of strong recovery
But for now, it’s an oversold rebound, not a complete reversal.
Going forward, spot storage prices and inflation data will set the direction again.

Sigh, fuck him, the efficiency of two-party politics is really low too.

This whale originally had another address. The other address just now also transferred the 1.89M HYPE (worth $106 million) that were redeemed in the early morning to the HyperEVM chain. So far, it hasn’t sent them to exchanges like the previous address. In other words, the 2.89M HYPE he accumulated around the beginning of last year—worth about $19.79—are currently in profit of more than $104 million.

Trading master class—learn it.

The market is re-pricing “burning cash”: $220 billion isn’t a cost—it’s a moat

Meta’s guidance missed expectations yesterday—shares fell.

Amazon’s guidance also missed expectations today—shares jumped 9% after hours.

Same “bomb,” but completely different outcomes.

Why?

Because Wall Street has finally distinguished two kinds of burning cash: ineffective cash burn and effective cash burn.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Amazon Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20% year over year. Earnings per share were $5.75, while the market expected only $1.82.

What really blew people away was AWS—revenue of $42.2 billion, up 37%, the fastest growth since 2021.

AWS operating profit was $16.6 billion, up 64%.

Profit growth (64%) is 1.7x revenue growth (37%).

This means demand for AI compute is not only large, but also priced at a premium. Enterprises are willing to pay higher prices for AWS compute.

Amazon’s annualized AWS revenue is already $169 billion—if it were a standalone company, it would rank 24th on the Fortune 500. Annualized revenue from its AI business is over $25 billion, maintaining triple-digit growth.

And that’s not all.

Amazon raised full-year capital expenditures from $200 billion to $220 billion. Free cash flow turned negative, with a net outflow of $7.6 billion.

The CEO, Jassy, said directly: “Even if we spend $220 billion, capacity in 2026 still isn’t enough, 2027 isn’t enough either, and orders for 2028 are already locked in.”

AWS backlog of contracted orders—$496 billion.

Now compare with Meta.

After Meta’s Q2 earnings, it also raised capital expenditures, and the market sold off the stock immediately.

Why?

Meta’s AI story is “selling dreams”—the metaverse has been burning for years, while big models are still burning, and it’s unclear where the money will come from.

Amazon’s AI story is “burn while earning”—every dollar spent lands and AWS has customers paying for it right away.

The market isn’t afraid of burning cash.

The market is afraid of burning cash without knowing when it can be recouped.

Three companies, three ways of pricing:

Microsoft—cloud business growth of 43%, capex unchanged, and the stock surged.

The market said: you delivered. Good.

Google—cloud growth of 82%, but capex came in above expectations and free cash flow turned negative, and the stock fell.

The market said: you can burn too much—too risky.

Amazon—cloud growth of 37%, capex raised to $220 billion, and the stock rose 9%.

The market said: burn it— the more you burn, the wider the moat.

Got it?

Same AI story, different delivery ability, and completely different pricing.

So what does this mean for Crypto?

The “fat protocol” logic still holds in the AI era.

Amazon is the world’s biggest “compute L1”—it earns “native tokens” (dollars) by selling compute. AWS’s $496 billion backlog is its “locked-in volume.”

By contrast, many Crypto AI projects burn VC money to do inference, but can’t collect more than a few cents in fees.

Who’s making money and who’s burning money is obvious.

Wall Street used to fear burning cash; now it fears you won’t burn cash.

Because not burning cash means you’ve already been knocked out at the AI table.

$220 billion isn’t a cost—it’s a moat.

Are you buying the “AI narrative,” or the “AI narrative that can collect money”?

Think it through, then decide your position. #美联储维持利率不变 #USD1持币生息最高8% #三星电子涨4.5%领涨韩股 $AMZN $MSFT $AMZN

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Amazon earnings baffling behavior
Cloud business surged, results beat expectations, but net profit spiked because AI stock prices rose—not because it made money from doing business. It’s crazily burning cash to build AI infrastructure; its cash on hand is shrinking, yet the market still remains optimistic. After-hours it even jumped another 9%～

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Bitcoin Asia 2026 is already in the final countdown! On August 27–28, the Asian Bitcoin community will gather at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre. Whether you’re an industry professional, an investor, or a user who has been following Bitcoin for the long term, this conference is worth seeing in person. ⚠️ Ticket prices are set to increase on August 8: GA: $98 → $108 GA+: $197 → $207 Whale: $2,888 → $3,888

South Korea’s crypto asset regulation has taken another step forward. The Financial Services Commission of Korea said that the draft of the “Digital Asset Framework Act” has been largely completed, and it is considering bringing AI Agent payments into the regulatory system to establish legal frameworks for KYC, responsibility allocation, cross-border reporting, and more for future AI-automated payments. This sends a signal worth paying attention to: regulators have begun planning ahead for AI + Crypto.

Take a look at the excerpt; these are my long-term operational suggestions about storage:
1. My views may not be entirely correct, because I’m also the kind of blogger who has never really done in-depth research into AI fundamentals. My judgments are based purely on my experience and trading system;
2. Based on the storage sector’s gains over the past year and the declines over the past month, I think this is only a rebound and it will be very difficult to reverse. The reasons are as follows:

Hell in the front, paradise in the back.
After multiple circuit-breaker halts, the Korean market is seeing an epic rebound.
Today, the KOSPI index surged 17%, Samsung Electronics jumped 18%, SK Hynix rose more than 23%, Micron MU rebounded 21%, and SNDK soared 33%.
On the other side, China’s homegrown storage giant CXMT saw its intraday market cap break $4 trillion, hitting a fresh high, getting one step closer to the $7.76 trillion target valuation issued by Nomura Securities.
Hefei, the capital of swagger—this round earns both face and substance enough and more than enough!
Behind this rebound, the main driving forces come from two aspects:
On one hand, the cooling of the US Q2 core PCE inflation data has clearly reduced market concerns about near-term rate hikes, and liquidity expectations are starting to recover.
On the other hand, Microsoft’s earnings report topped expectations, reigniting market confidence in the AI industry chain. Combined with the end of the concentrated selling pressure caused by earlier large AI fund liquidations, tech stocks and high-momentum assets are seeing a strong rebound.
That said, when will sector rotation finally reach the crypto market? We’ve been silent for too long!!!

Apple turned in a perfect score on a test—then its stock crashed by 8%.

If you held AAPL last night, you probably still haven’t snapped out of it.

On July 30, Apple released its 2026 fiscal Q3 earnings report:

—— Revenue $109.4 billion, up 16% year over year, beating expectations
—— EPS $2.02, up 29% year over year, beating expectations
—— iPhone sold $54.25 billion, up 22% year over year, setting a June-quarter record
—— Mac sold $10.35 billion, up a whopping 29% year over year
—— Gross margin 50.1%, a historic breakthrough above the 50% mark

A grand slam.

Apple just snatched back the title of global market cap #1 from Nvidia. Before the report, everyone was shouting, “This one is basically locked.”

Then after hours—

**Largest drop of 8.37%**.

Market cap vaporized by over $300 billion overnight.

A “better-than-expected” earnings report, traded for an 8-percentage-point red candlestick.

What happened?

It’s not that the results are bad—what you looked at was “the past,” and what the market trades is “the future.”

Apple’s CFO gave guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter: revenue growth of 9% to 11%.

What did the market expect? 12.1%.

Even the upper end can’t reach someone else’s expectations.

And even more brutal—iPhone next-quarter growth guidance is 14% to 16%, while analysts expected 17.6%.

Miss across the board.

Why? Two words: AI, eating Apple.

On the call, Cook said something—I suggest you read it carefully:

“We’re in a once-in-a-century flood-like storage pricing environment, where storage prices are rising exponentially.”

Translated into plain human language:

AI data centers around the world are fighting over memory and flash. Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon—who doesn’t need massive storage to train large models?

Apple doesn’t build data centers, but Apple still has to buy chips.

AI pushes storage prices to record highs in a once-in-a-century cycle, and then—this bill—gets slapped onto Apple’s gross margin.

Apple is forced to raise the prices of Mac and iPad, and price hikes will keep coming.

Earlier this year, Apple was seen by the market as an “AI defensive trade”—not heavy on spend, not competing aggressively in large models, and it rose 22% to lead the Magnificent Seven.

Now the logic has flipped. AI didn’t help Apple make money—AI first made Apple’s costs explode.

What’s most painful?

This is Cook’s last time hosting the earnings call.

This “supply-chain master’s” farewell act is themed—

“We are struggling to get through the supply chain.”

Incoming CEO Ternus is sitting next to him, taking over starting next quarter.

What Cook hands over is record-level performance. What he leaves for the successor is a mess of supply-chain chaos.

You bought “Apple is stable.”
But what the market sees is: “In the AI era, even Apple can’t stay stable.”

Let’s say the harsh part:

You thought buying AAPL was a safe haven.

Turns out AI grabs capacity right onto Apple’s head, and you realize—there’s no real place to hide in this world, only corners that haven’t been swept up yet.

Storage prices rise once in a century. Your position falls once in a century. #美联储维持利率不变 #三星电子涨4.5%领涨韩股 #USD1持币生息最高8% $BTC $AAPL $SNDK

Keeping up with this rollercoaster is way too intense 🫡 In two days, it first dropped 30% and then rose 30%. Hyperliquid’s biggest “Hai Lishi Air Force” has also been riding an unstoppable ride: He was up on his short position by $13.5 million yesterday, and today he hasn’t just given back all of the unrealized profit—he’s now down in the red by an additional $740k in unrealized losses. The contrast is something most people can’t handle—this kind of thrill 😂

$SNDK $INTC $SKHY Pour in first—then a wave. This is drawing lessons from last time’s small rocket ride—80-100+ with a big profit swing; a speculative position is still a speculative position, and you follow the speculative-principle for speculative positions.
Note: For these hardware picks, I believe there are still great chances for wave trading.

1 hour ago, a whale withdrew 1.03M hyperliquid:native (HYPE) coins it had held for a year and a half, totaling $57.60 million, into Coinbase Prime and FalconX. It made a profit of $37.45 million (+186%) on HYPE.
1⃣ He withdrew 1.02M HYPE from Gate in early 2025, with an average price of about $19.79, when its value was $20.15 million. The subsequent HYPE were deposited into staking.
2⃣HYPE

Last night, US stocks surged. This morning, South Korean stocks also surged—especially AI-related sectors. I think this is a “dead-cat bounce” rebound. I believe this rebound will last for a while, ending in about 15 trading days, and it can’t fundamentally change the larger downward trend. After that, there will be a big drop, then a period of sideways trading, a small decline, and then another big drop before a bottom is formed. At the earliest, bottoming will have to wait until next year.

I suggest everyone look back at what was said before the storage surge yesterday: the teachers who said “storage is falling,” and “if it drops a bit more, I’ll bottom-fish”—why are they posting today? Anyway, I’ve seen several people say things like that before, and I even accidentally screenshot it, but I just won’t put it out. Offending people by posting it is a bigger grudge than killing your own father—hahahahahaha 😂

PCE posts its first negative reading in six years! The market has switched from “fearing more rate hikes” to “betting on rate cuts”

Last night, a signal most people ignored may be rewriting the crypto market’s script for the second half of the year.

The US June PCE price index fell 0.1% month-over-month.

This is the first time since the 2020 pandemic—after six full years, PCE has turned negative for the first month.

That inflation beast has truly started to “go hungry” at the data level.

I know what you’re going to say—“It’s only 0.1%, so what kind of a move can that make?”

But markets never trade the magnitude; they trade the direction.

Another set of data released the same day is even more interesting:

Second-quarter GDP annualized growth was 1.5%, below the expected 2.1%.

Growth is slowing, right? On the surface, yes.

But dig deeper—after stripping out net exports, inventories, and government spending, growth in domestic private final sales came in at 3.9%, the highest since early 2023.

Translation: everyday consumers are spending strongly, and business investment is holding strong.

GDP growth missed expectations because the trade deficit widened—imports surged for a large number of AI servers and semiconductor equipment. This isn’t an economy going bad; the US is desperately building AI infrastructure.

Strong consumption + falling inflation = the “soft landing” script the Fed wants most.

So what does this mean for the crypto market?

The peak in nominal interest rates is basically confirmed.

In July, the Fed will keep rates unchanged with a 9-3 vote, and three officials will vote in favor of a rate hike. At one point, the market priced a September rate hike as high as 57%.

But after PCE turned negative, that pricing is now facing a recalibration.

Why? Real interest rate = nominal interest rate − inflation.

When PCE turns negative, even if the nominal rate stays the same, the real rate is being passively pushed higher—this is the core logic behind the valuation squeeze over the past two years.

But now, the marginal direction of inflation has changed.

The market is no longer panicking about how many more hikes there will be; it’s starting to wager on when rate cuts will happen.

Even though core PCE year-over-year at 3.3% is still far above the Fed’s 2% target and the structural problems in inflation haven’t been fully resolved, it’s the marginal change that drives market pricing.

After the PCE data was released, Bitcoin briefly broke above $65,000, rising by about 2% on the day. The US Dollar Index fell by more than 0.9%, its biggest single-day drop since January. Gold surged back above $4,100.

The market is already voting.

I know someone will say: “Isn’t this just oil price noise? How long can the US-Iran temporary ceasefire deal hold?”

Even if it’s just noise, it’s still a directional kind of noise.

For the first time in six years, turning negative—this “first time” by itself is the signal.

Crypto markets trade expectations. When PCE turns negative, a liquidity turning point is no longer something far off.

Even if there’s one more rate hike in September (the probability has already come down), that would be the last one.

Don’t get stuck obsessing over whether the single-month data is being caused by oil prices. Remember: markets trade marginal changes.

Negative is an attitude.

If you become overly bearish at this point, you might miss the most critical macro turning-window. #美联储维持利率不变 #USD1持币生息最高8% #三星电子涨4.5%领涨韩股 $BTC $BZ $CL

The most enticing—and most disgusting—part is that it has extreme volatility: in a single night, it can wipe out nearly 30%. Can you handle that? What’s the difference from all the knockoff scams in the crypto world? But if it’s a speculative position, you need both buying and selling—gains on paper don’t count as winning. Only when you “lock in and cash out” does it count as selling at the right moment, and you can truly profit.