The “supply wall” above $87k is tougher than the Fed
Bitcoin just climbed back from $81k to $84.5k, and everyone is shouting “the bull is back.”
But look up: that $87k wall has already pushed the price back three times.
What makes this time different?
On October 22, BTC briefly surged to $84,853, up more than 2.4% on the day. SpaceX earnings lifted tech stocks, risk appetite recovered, and ETF inflows returned.
Sounds good.
But you’re still $2,500 away from the real signal.
Glassnode’s range framework says buyers’ cost basis over the past 6 to 12 months is $86,700, while sell orders in the order book and liquidation clusters are concentrated at $85k and $87k.
The $87k to $87.4k range has rejected the price three times.
Some might say: Aren’t ETFs buying?
Yes, IBIT saw $665 million in net inflows on October 20, its highest single-day total this year. ETFs have seen about $2.3 billion in cumulative inflows over the past month, with BlackRock leading by far.
But Glassnode also poured cold water on this: trading volume has not increased in tandem.
The money is coming in, but there’s no “depth.”
Directional money doesn’t equal deep demand.
That’s the most frustrating thing about this $87k wall.
It’s not that nobody’s buying. It’s that even the buying can’t push the price higher.
Every time the price touches $87k, sell orders and short liquidation clusters above it act like a solid wall, bouncing the price back. ETF inflows are enough to provide support, but not enough to break through.
Against $87k, $665 million in one-day inflows is just a nice-looking admission ticket, not a pass to get through.
On October 9, BTC did surge to $87,363, with short liquidations briefly accounting for more than 86%. But what happened after it broke higher? It quickly reversed, fell below $84k, and hundreds of millions of dollars in long positions were liquidated in a cascade.
Short covering can push the price up, but it can’t sustain it.
What can truly turn $87k from a “ceiling” into a “floor” isn’t forced short covering; it’s bulls using real money to absorb all the sell orders.
Right now, bulls don’t have that appetite.
The macro backdrop is helping, but it can’t do the job here.
The probability of a Fed rate hike on October 28 has already fallen below 15%; Warsh is relatively dovish, and the market is betting on no change.
That means there’s no short-term risk of the Fed “dumping the market.”
But the reverse is also true: there’s no scenario where the Fed “turns on the liquidity taps to fuel a breakout.”
The market will have to chew through $87k on its own.
What does the real signal look like?
Not “another touch of $87k.”
It’s a daily close holding above $87,500, accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume.
Glassnode’s exact words: If ETFs repeatedly see inflows while trading volume continues to expand, that would provide stronger evidence that demand is growing, rather than reflecting a capital pulse on isolated trading days.
Without volume, every touch of $87k is an opportunity for shorts to add positions, not a victory for bulls.
Between $85k and $87k, don’t take large directional positions.
In this range, chasing longs offers poor odds—the supply wall above has been tested three times, while $80k below is a cost-basis accumulation zone for ETF and treasury holders; a break below would trigger another liquidation cascade.
There is only one true right-side signal: a daily close holding above $87,500, with volume rising.
Until then, the risk-reward at the upper end favors not chasing longs.
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