ETH Was Pulled Back to $1,905 by CPI—Are You Buying?
First, the surface-level view: favorable data, explosive rebound.
Over the past 24 hours, ETH rebounded from $1,850 to $1,910, gaining 3%, breaking above $1,900 on increased volume, and reclaiming the 20-day and 100-day moving averages. The intraday high came close to $1,918. Active on-chain addresses surged to their highest level since March, exchange outflows increased, and whales quietly accumulated at lower levels. A series of higher lows has formed since the June low of $1,520, short-term momentum has turned positive, and the rebound is not over—but $1,925 is the line of death.
First: CPI saved the day, but the Fed’s knife has not been put away.
July CPI came in at 3.4% year over year, as expected, while core CPI at 2.5% month over month was moderate, sending the market straight into euphoria—ETH instantly bounced 3% from $1,850.
But core inflation remains sticky, and the probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting is still 44%. Rate cuts? Still a long way off. One CPI reading in line with expectations does not mean the bull market is back; it only means the bears are taking a temporary breather.
Second: Whales are buying while retail investors are calling ETH “junk.”
Multiple addresses made large withdrawals, with purchases in the 50,000 ETH range. Exchange outflows continue to rise, Fidelity is advancing ETF staking and dividend initiatives, and BitMine’s holdings have exceeded 5.8 million ETH.
Institutions are quietly accumulating in the $1,850–$1,900 range, while retail investors are complaining, “ETH is down 55% in a year—what a garbage asset.”
BlackRock and Fidelity are betting on staking yields, upgrades, Glamsterdam scaling, and expanded institutional access.
Third: The technical picture is showing two signals—one heavenly, one hellish.
First, heaven: From $1,520 to $1,910, ETH has formed a clear higher-low structure and successfully reclaimed the 20-day and 100-day moving averages, which sit around $1,890–$1,894. Funds are making modest purchases and trading volume has increased—this provides a foundation for the rebound to continue.
Now, hell: $1,925 is the 4-hour Supertrend resistance level, $1,950 is a liquidation-heavy zone, $2,000 is the psychological threshold, and $2,035 is the 200-day moving average—four barriers stacked together like a wall. The Elliott Wave target points to $1,978, but only if $1,925 is cleared first.
The Bulls and Bears Are Clashing—You Decide
On one side:
- Positive CPI and rising odds of a pause in rate hikes in September, signaling marginal macroeconomic improvement
- Whale accumulation, exchange outflows, and continued institutional buying
- Active on-chain addresses hitting a three-month high, showing strong network usage
- Staking, ETF dividends, and the upgrade roadmap providing long-term support
- A high-volume breakout above key moving averages, with the technical picture leaning bullish
On the other side:
- Dense resistance at $1,925–$1,950, with repeated historical rejections at higher levels
- ETH is down 35% year to date and 55% over one year, with the trend still in a choppy recovery
- L2s are diverting fee capture, and value accumulation still needs to be validated through upgrades
- The September rate-hike probability remains elevated, so the macro picture is not one-sided
- If $2,000 cannot be broken, ETH could fall back to $1,850 or even $1,815
Key Levels
Resistance above: $1,925 → $1,950 → $2,000 → $2,035 (200-day moving average)
Support below: $1,890 → $1,850 (strong support) → $1,815–$1,800 (iron floor)
Trading Strategy
For short-term traders:
Go lightly long on a pullback to $1,890–$1,900, set a stop-loss below $1,875, and target $1,925, taking half off first, then $1,950. If $1,925 breaks on increased volume and holds, add to the position and target $2,000. If $1,925 cannot be cleared, the bulls are just paper tigers.
For swing traders:
Build positions in batches within the $1,850–$1,900 range, set a stop-loss below $1,800, and target $2,100–$2,200 after a break above $2,000. Reduce exposure and wait if $1,850 breaks decisively, then re-enter at the lower support levels of $1,750–$1,700.
For long-term believers:
The $1,800–$1,900 dollar-cost-averaging window remains open. With the staking rate above 30%, ETF staking coming online, and the Glamsterdam upgrade expected in Q3, the fundamentals are healthy; the price is simply recovering. But remember: a genuine trend reversal requires a sustained move above $2,000.
Risk Management:
Keep each trade below 5–8% of total capital, do not use more than 5–10x leverage on perpetuals, and always set a stop-loss. Volatility expands around macroeconomic data releases, so do not go all-in or hold losing positions indefinitely.
ETH Now Looks Like Bitcoin in January 2025
Every CPI-driven rebound brought people out shouting, “The bull market is back,” only for the price to be knocked down at resistance. That continued until February 2025, when it actually broke through.
A trader’s fate is this: you must still be in the game on the sixth, seventh, and eighth attempts.
On the day $1,925 breaks, you will realize:
It wasn’t that ETH was incapable—it was that you got off every time just before resistance.
What is your ETH cost basis?
At $1,905, are you buying?
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