ETH at $1,935, are you still waiting for a lower price?
Look at the surface first: It continues to underperform BTC, and believers' faith has collapsed.
Down 35% YTD, down over 50% in a year, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate keeps hitting new lows. FUD is everywhere: “The VC chain is done,” “Solana is going to surpass it,” “Vitalik only knows how to talk big.”
But then what? The price rebounded from $1,500 to $1,935, up nearly 30% in 30 days.
The price is above the 50-day moving average ($1,856), while the 200-day moving average ($2,000) is overhead. Momentum weakened after the MACD golden cross, and RSI at 57 is neutral to slightly bullish. It is poised to break out—just missing one volume-backed bullish candle.
First: Glamsterdam has been delayed, but the market no longer cares.
The upgrade originally scheduled for H1 has been pushed to Q4. Developers warned that it would break the 21,000 gas hardcoded assumption, requiring wallets and indexers to be updated. The community exploded: “Delayed again! ETH is done!”
Every upgrade delay is a buy-the-bad-news opportunity. The Shanghai upgrade was delayed, Deneb was delayed, and Pectra was delayed too—which one did not later rally enough to make you slap your thigh in regret?
Second: ETF funds are quietly flowing back in, but you have not noticed.
On August 18, net inflows reached $71.47 million, with BlackRock alone contributing 90%. There have been net inflows for several consecutive weeks. The absolute amount has not exploded yet, but the direction has already changed.
The media only focuses on “ETH underperforming BTC,” while selectively ignoring this: Institutions are quietly accumulating in the $1,900-$2,000 range, while retail investors are panic-switching into BTC.
Tom Lee's Bitmine holdings are approaching 4.8% of the total supply, with 87% already staked.
Third: A signal has appeared on the technical chart that must be taken seriously.
After rebounding from $1,500 on the daily chart, it entered a broad trading range of $1,850-$2,000. Over the past few weeks, it has risen within the $1,870-$1,935 range, forming a short-term ascending channel.
At $1,935, it is just $15 away from the life-or-death line at $1,950—holding above it confirms a bullish trend, while failing to hold means continued range-bound grinding.
Bulls versus bears—judge for yourself
On one side:
Consecutive ETF net inflows, with BlackRock alone accounting for 90%
Tom Lee's holdings nearing 5%, with 87% staked and locked up
Daily active users, L2 throughput, and staked supply at historical highs
Holding above the 50-day moving average, with a short-term ascending channel formed
On the other side:
Down 35% YTD, down over 50% in a year, underperforming BTC
Glamsterdam delayed to Q4, leaving a short-term catalyst vacuum
Federal Reserve rates remain high at 3.50-3.75%, and liquidity is still tight
The 200-day moving average at $2,000 is overhead, and a breakout requires volume
Key levels
Upside resistance: $1,940-$1,950 → $1,980-$2,000 (200-day moving average + psychological round-number level) → $2,050-$2,100
Downside support: $1,900 (psychological level) → $1,870-$1,880 (50-day moving average + previous low) → $1,850 → $1,800
Trading strategy
Conservative strategy:
Scale into light long positions at $1,900-$1,910, set a stop-loss below $1,870, take half off at $1,945-$1,950, and let the other half target $1,980-$2,000.
Aggressive strategy:
Wait for a volume-backed 4H/daily close above $1,950 before chasing longs, with a stop-loss at $1,920 and a target of $2,050-$2,100. If it breaks below $1,870 on heavy volume, cautiously try light short positions, targeting $1,850-$1,800, with a stop-loss at $1,905.
Mid-term outlook:
As long as $1,800 holds, treat it as accumulation within a bottoming range. A genuine trend move will have to wait for Glamsterdam testing to become clear and macro liquidity to improve (earliest in Q4). Slowly dollar-cost average into spot, and trade futures strictly within the range.
No single trade should exceed 5% of total capital, and always set a stop-loss. I have seen too many people get whipsawed in this kind of consolidation—position management is ten thousand times more important than directional judgment.
ETH now looks just like BTC at the end of 2023—
99% of people thought “the king of altcoins is finished,” but after the ETF was approved, it went straight from $20k to $70k.
The day $1,950 breaks out, you will realize:
It was not that ETH was failing—it was that you kept cutting losses and switching into BTC at the very bottom.
What is your ETH cost basis?
At $1,935, do you dare buy the dip?
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