Would you dare chase BTC at $77,400?
Look at the surface first: shorts are bleeding out, while longs are celebrating.
From 64k in the middle of last week, BTC broke through 67k, 70k, 72k, and 75k one after another, with all four resistance levels collapsing like paper. Thursday saw the largest single-day short liquidation since 2021, with over $4 billion in short positions wiped out in two days.
But RSI has already climbed to 80-85, indicating extreme overbought conditions. After consecutive large bullish candles with almost no pullback, the price has moved too far above its moving averages. Chasing the rally will leave you trapped; wait for a pullback before entering.
First: the Treasury has injected liquidity, but you may not have understood what happened.
The U.S. Treasury announced that it would double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, raising each operation from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
The government uses its own money to buy long-term Treasuries → pushing down long-end yields → money flows out of the bond market
Where does that money go? Stocks, BTC, and gold
The dollar comes under pressure, while risk assets rally
BTC surged from 64k to 77k, gold strengthened in tandem, and the Nasdaq rebounded.
Second: Trump and regulatory tailwinds are positive, but don't FOMO.
Trump met with crypto industry executives and urged the Senate to pass the Clarity Act (the crypto market structure bill). Alongside the SEC's latest crypto proposal, regulatory optimism is growing. ETFs have seen over $1 billion in net inflows recently, and institutional capital is returning.
Sounds explosive? But the bill has not yet passed, and the SEC proposal is still being negotiated. The market is trading on "expectations," not "implementation." Mid-September is the key point. If progress goes poorly, the market could fall back just as quickly as it rose.
Third: a warning signal has appeared on the technical side that must be taken seriously.
Daily RSI is at 80-85, while RSI on the 4H timeframe has remained overbought. What does this mean? Over the past year, whenever RSI rose above 80, there was always a 5-10% pullback within a week.
After breaking through 67k, 70k, 72k, and 75k in succession, the price has deviated severely from the 50-day moving average (around 64.5k) and the 200-day moving average (around 69k). This is a typical "price catches up with the moving averages" phase—either the market consolidates sideways, or it drops directly to seek support.
You be the judge in the bull-bear battle
On one side (the bulls):
Treasury buybacks are pushing down long-term bond yields, sending a clear liquidity-release signal
Trump is pushing hard for the Clarity Act, shifting the regulatory narrative toward optimism
ETF net inflows exceed $1 billion, and institutional capital is returning
The weekly gain exceeds 20%, all key resistance levels have been broken, and the trend has turned bullish
On the other side (the bears):
RSI at 80-85 indicates extreme overbought conditions, and historical patterns point to an inevitable pullback
Momentum is fading after the liquidation wave, making the risk of chasing the rally extremely high
The regulatory bill will not be decided until September, leaving room for uncertainty
Real yields remain high, and the Federal Reserve has not said it will cut rates
Key levels
Upside resistance: 78,000-80,000 (round-number resistance + extension target) → 85,000
Downside support: 72k (previous-high support + breakout platform) → 70k (psychological level + former resistance turned support) → 67k (top of the range)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to the 72k-73,000 range to go long, with a stop-loss at 68,500 and a target of 78,000-80,000.
Swing traders:
For those already holding longs, raise the stop-loss to 72k to lock in profits. Those on the sidelines should wait to build positions in batches around 72k, or ideally at 70k. Exit first if it breaks below 69k.
Long-term believers:
If you did not buy the dip below 64k, do not go all in now. Wait for a pullback to 70k-72k before adding to your position. Long-term target: 100k+.
Short positions: Stay away for now. The trend is upward, and shorting against the trend is like catching a falling knife. Only consider lightly shorting a rebound if the daily candle closes as a large bearish candle below 72k.
This rebound is being driven by "liquidity expectations," not a "fundamental reversal."
BTC, with a market cap of $1.5 trillion, is still 40% below its all-time high of 126k. The bottom has indeed moved higher, but a true bull market confirmation requires holding above 80,000-100k.
At this level, those chasing the rally are suckers, while those waiting for a pullback are hunters.
You didn't dare buy at 64k a week ago, and now you're asking whether you can chase at 77k a week later—
You keep swinging between regret and FOMO, and keep losing money.
At $77,400, are you chasing or staying out?
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