Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

A whale went long on $80 million worth of BTC and ETH when the market plunged after MicroStrategy announced on Monday, July 6, that it was selling coins, and has held the positions until now. The BTC long was opened at $62,353, and the ETH long at $1,762. With the sharp rebound over the past two days, the long positions he opened a month and a half ago are now showing unrealized profits of as much as $21.1 million.

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Why does a single big bullish candlestick most easily lead people to misjudge that the trend has already reversed? After experiencing several bull and bear cycles, I’ve become increasingly reluctant to declare “the bull market is back” based solely on one explosive price surge. After the market has moved sideways for a long time, a sudden breakout can trigger forced buying from short stop-losses and liquidations; seeing prices rise, sidelined capital also rushes in, causing prices to climb faster and faster. It may look like massive capital is scrambling to buy, but in reality, the initial rise may have been driven primarily by forced short covering.

Trump is launching a new coin tomorrow?? Is this rumor already known across the entire internet? Is there really anyone who doesn’t know yet?

当 $BTC 精准打到压力区间并暂停之后。 熊市思维：Fuck, draw this thing downward for me! 牛市思维：Altcoins: “Big bro, stop pulling—we’re trying to catch up!” 桂林水友思维：Holy shit, this chart is fucking accurate! 桂林思维：Stop looking at those fucking lines I drew—I can’t even tell where it’s going anymore!

The big one may really be coming.

U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion
Interest alone costs $1.2 trillion!

ZEC at $650—did you miss the boat?

Look at the surface first: it doubled in a month, while retail investors frantically shouted, “Should I chase it?”

After the June exploit, it crashed to 250, and everyone said, “ZEC is finished.” Then what happened? In one month, it rose from 250 to 650, gaining 160%. The daily bullish candle directly broke through the 570 consolidation range, with volume confirmation. The cup-and-handle pattern has a neckline at 750, and a breakout means 1000+.

First: the ETF is really coming, and institutions are more anxious than you are.

Grayscale has submitted its fourth amended S-3 filing to advance the conversion into a spot ETF. DCG-related entities are discussing contributing approximately 200k ZEC (about $110 million) to the Trust, directly easing previous concerns about selling pressure.

You read that right—institutions are actively putting coins into the Trust, not to sell them, but to hold them compliantly after the ETF is approved.

Second: that “fatal exploit” in June instead became a stress test.

Remember early June? The Orchard exploit was exposed, and the price flash-crashed from 680 to 250, prompting the entire market to shout, “Privacy coins are going to zero.”

Then what happened? The team fixed it in five days. The Ironwood upgrade (the new shielded pool) has been completed, and Project Tachyon is advancing formal verification—the technical risks have been completely eliminated, proving the team’s execution.

The shielded supply ratio has recovered from its low at the time to 25-31%, while shielded transaction usage continues to rise.

That crash washed out the speculators, leaving believers and institutions.

Third: the technical chart has produced a textbook V-shaped reversal.

The daily chart surged from 250 straight to 650. Today’s bullish candle directly broke through the 500-570 consolidation range, with the high touching 666 and trading volume expanding significantly. The price is above all major moving averages (5/10/20/50/200-day), while the short-term moving averages are forming a bullish golden cross and diverging upward.

On the weekly chart, a V-shaped reversal and the early formation of a cup-and-handle pattern emerged after the June crash, with the neckline in the 750-775 range. If it breaks through effectively, the medium-term target points directly to 1000+.

Bulls versus bears—you decide

On one side:

Grayscale’s fourth amended ETF filing has been submitted, accelerating the institutional process

DCG plans to spend $110 million buying coins, while the Winklevoss twins are making major investments in mining machines

The shielded supply ratio continues to rise, and genuine privacy demand is growing

The technical chart has broken through the consolidation range, with the cup-and-handle target at 1000+

On the other side:

Daily RSI is overbought, with a high risk of a short-term pullback

At 650, the price is only $16 below the intraday high of 666

The aftereffects of the June exploit have not completely faded, and a disappointing news event could trigger a 20%+ crash

Regulatory uncertainty remains, including the Clarity Act

Key levels

Upside resistance: 666 (intraday high) → 700 → 720-750 (neckline/supply zone) → 1000+

Downside support: 600-620 → 550-570 → 500

Trading strategies

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 620-630 and take a small long position, with a stop-loss at 580 and a target of 700-720.

For swing traders:

Wait for a pullback to 550-580 before building a position in batches, with a stop-loss at 500 and a target of 750-1000. Add to the position on a high-volume breakout above 750, and hold on without getting shaken out.

For long-term believers:

ZEC is the only privacy coin with ETF expectations, and institutions are laying out the entire industry chain from start to finish. If the ETF is approved, the privacy narrative will be revalued, with its market cap approaching 5-10% of BTC’s—corresponding to a price of 3000-6000.

ZEC now resembles ETH in 2020—

99% of people think “privacy coins have no future,” but once Grayscale submits an ETF filing, institutions will buy aggressively.

The day 750 breaks through, you will realize:

It wasn’t that ZEC was incapable—it was that you got off before every surge.

At 650, do you dare get on board? #BTCETH反弹交易思路 #XRP大涨16% $BTC $ETH $ZEC $SNDK $SPCX #BTC breaks through $75000

Gold at $4,580—are you going to chase it?

Look at the surface first: a barrage of bullish news, sending prices violently higher.

On Wednesday, the Treasury unexpectedly announced that it would double the size of its long-term Treasury buybacks, directly pressuring Treasury yields and the dollar. Gold surged over 4% in a single day (its largest one-day gain in nearly six months). Strength continued on Thursday and Friday, bringing this week’s gain to 5%. It shot directly from 4,330 to 4,580, with the daily high touching 4,600+. It moved above the 200-day moving average (4,514) and broke through the 4,482 bear-market threshold, confirming the bullish trend—but it is already overheated in the short term.

First: U.S. national debt has surpassed $40 trillion, making gold the only “hard currency.”

U.S. public debt surpassed $40 trillion this week. What does $40 trillion mean? That’s $120k per American.

The Treasury is panicking—it urgently doubled the size of its Treasury buybacks. Put simply, it is using money printing to buy debt and using more debt to cover up old debt. Bessent also hinted that buybacks could be expanded, with more fiscal measures on the way.

The dollar is speeding down the depreciation track, while gold is the only brake pad.

Second: Gold ETF inflows reached 18 tons in a single day, the strongest in nearly a year.

Gold ETF inflows exceeded 18 tons in a single day, among the strongest levels in nearly a year. The Dollar Index fell to around 98.6, a three-month low. Real interest rates are declining, while the 10-year Treasury yield is being forcefully suppressed by the Treasury.

Three signals have turned green at the same time. When was the last time this happened? March 2020—then gold rose from 1,500 to 2,000.

Third: A signal has emerged on the technical front that must be taken seriously.

The daily chart has posted consecutive bullish candles, with RSI rising to 69—near overbought territory but not yet extreme. Moving above the 200-day moving average (4,514) and breaking through the key 4,482 level, the structure of “higher highs + higher lows” confirms the bullish trend.

But 4,580–4,600 is a psychological resistance zone, and RSI at 69 means a short-term pullback could occur at any time.

Like BTC, gold is bought when nobody cares and sold when everyone is talking about it.

You decide in the battle between bulls and bears

On one side:

U.S. national debt surpassing $40 trillion, strengthening expectations of dollar depreciation

Treasury buybacks suppressing real interest rates

Central banks purchased 289 tons of gold in Q2 (+62% year-over-year)

18 tons of ETF inflows in a single day, signaling institutional entry

Above the 200-day moving average, confirming a bullish technical outlook

On the other side:

RSI at 69, near overbought territory, with the short-term market overheated

High oil prices (Brent crude at 93), which could drive inflation higher

If inflation rebounds, expectations of interest-rate hikes could return

Profit-taking may occur before the weekend

Key levels

Upside resistance: 4,600 (psychological level) → 4,625 → 4,650–4,690 → 4,700–4,780

Downside support: 4,525–4,530 → 4,500 → 4,480–4,514 (200MA + key level)

Trading strategy

For short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 4,525–4,550 to go long, with a stop-loss at 4,500, a first target of 4,625, and a second target of 4,650–4,690. If it surges directly to 4,600 and meets resistance, you can open a small short position to trade the pullback, targeting 4,550–4,525, with a stop-loss at 4,640.

For swing traders:

Take profits on long positions in batches while keeping a core position to target 4,700–5,000. If the daily candle closes below 4,480, exit first and wait on the sidelines.

For long-term believers:

Gold is the most certain macro bullish asset of 2026. The U.S. debt problem has no solution, dedollarization is a long-term cycle, and central bank gold purchases will not stop. The target is above the historical high of 5,602.

Gold right now is like gold at $1,500 in March 2020—

99% of people thought, “It’s gone up too much; it should pull back,” but it ended the year at 2,000.

On the day 4,600 breaks through, you will realize:

It wasn’t that gold was too expensive—it was that you missed the start of every rally.

At 4,580, do you dare to chase it? #BTCETH反弹交易思路 #XRP大涨16% $BTC $ETH $XAU $XAUT $SNDK
#BTC breaks through $75000

U.S. debt exceeds 40 trillion dollars
Interest alone costs 1.2 trillion dollars!

UNI at $3.9—are you getting in?

Look past the surface first: DeFi’s second-largest protocol is rebounding aggressively, leaving retail investors conflicted.

It rapidly rallied from its mid-August low of 3.2, gaining over 15% for the week and touching a daily high of 4.05. The candlestick chart is telling you: a V-shaped reversal + high-volume breakout. The fundamentals have changed—stop looking at UNI through outdated lenses.

First: UNI is no longer a “governance token”; it’s starting to generate revenue.

What you see is UNI falling from 4.5 to 3.2 and bouncing back to 3.9, making you think it’s just another ordinary junk rally. What you don’t see is:

The v4 fee switch is fully activated, and the protocol has started collecting fees from trades

Approximately 100 million UNI will be burned in a one-time event (10–16% of total supply)

Future burns will be linked to trading volume—the more trading, the fewer UNI

Second: RWA is here, and Uniswap has become the “gateway to Wall Street.”

Arbitrum will launch 10 1:1-backed tokenized stocks on August 24, traded directly on Uniswap and settled in USDC. This is no small experiment—it is the first stop for bringing real-world assets on-chain.

Uniswap has already been deployed on Robinhood Chain, with its trading volume accounting for nearly half of the protocol’s total. It will also support Circle’s Arc mainnet in September.

Institutions are building channels in DeFi, and Uniswap is that gateway.

Third: The technicals have reached a critical point.

The daily RSI is around 75, ADX shows moderately strong trend strength, and the short-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment. Key support is at 3.70–3.75 (recent low + short-term moving averages), while resistance is at 4.00–4.05 (psychological level) and 4.20–4.50 (early-August highs).

Pattern: A rebound from a long-term demand zone, with some analysts pointing to an upside breakout from a descending wedge. OBV capital flows continue to move in.

The 1-hour RSI has reached 76—overbought. A short-term pullback may be needed for consolidation, with around 3.8 offering a better entry point.

You decide which side wins

On one side:

Fee switch activated + 100 million UNI burned, launching the deflationary model

RWA tokenized stocks launch on August 24, a historic catalyst

Robinhood Chain + Circle Arc, with unstoppable multichain expansion

DEX daily trading volume surpasses $10 billion, while DeFi TVL recovers to $83 billion

On the other side:

1h/4h RSI is overbought, creating short-term pullback pressure

U.S. regulatory uncertainty remains

If BTC pulls back, UNI will fall with it

4.05 has failed to break three times, creating psychological pressure

Key levels

Upside resistance: 4.00–4.05 → 4.20 → 4.50–4.60 → 5.00+

Downside support: 3.70–3.75 → 3.50 → 3.20–3.30

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Go lightly long on a pullback to 3.80–3.85, with a stop-loss at 3.70 and targets of 4.05 → 4.20. Go long on a high-volume breakout above 4.05, with a stop-loss at 3.95 and a target of 4.50.

Swing traders:

Build positions in batches at 3.70–3.85, with a stop-loss at 3.50 and targets of 4.50–5.00. After the RWA launch on August 24, watch the actual trading volume; add to your position if it exceeds expectations.

Long-term believers:

Blindly dollar-cost average below 3.5. UNI’s fundamentals have undergone a qualitative transformation—from a governance token into a yield-generating, deflationary asset. The target for the end of 2026 is 8–10, betting on RWA + multichain expansion.

UNI now looks just like BNB at the end of 2020—

99% of people thought, “Isn’t it just an exchange token?” Yet BNB rose from 30 to 600.

The day 4.05 breaks through, you’ll realize:

It wasn’t that UNI was incapable—it was that you got off before the rally began every time.

What is your UNI cost basis?

At 3.9, do you dare get in? #BTCETH反弹交易思路 #XRP大涨16% $BTC $ETH $UNI $SNDK $SPCX #BTC breaks through $75000

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Record! Important!

I just did a review of my thinking and realized that I still have a huge bear-market mindset inertia.

I’m quoting this post to remind myself.

The daily SMA200, the great bull/bear market dividing line.

The chart below shows Bitcoin’s performance after its first breakout above the daily SMA200 following every historical sell-off from the all-time high into a bear market.

The last time Bitcoin surged this aggressively was on October 24, 2019, after the official news broadcast reported on a collective study of blockchain technology. Bitcoin began skyrocketing on October 25 and broke through $10,000 on October 26, gaining as much as 40%.

The two situations have one thing in common: both were short-term explosive rallies during a bear market. Bear-market rallies are unsustainable, so I remain bearish going forward. Guys, do you think I can still wait for Bitcoin to reach $45,000?

On Monday, MicroStrategy was still sitting on an unrealized loss of $9.9 billion. By Friday, MicroStrategy had an unrealized gain of $980 million. What is this—making $11 billion in one week? In this spectacular market rally😂, was the 6,948 BTC that MicroStrategy sold at an average price of $62,146 at a painful loss all for nothing?

Would you chase ETH at $2,400?

First, look at the surface: a barrage of positive news, with FOMO spreading.

Over the past few days, it broke strongly out of the $1,950-$2,000 consolidation range, surging 20-26% consecutively straight to $2,400. Trump hosted a crypto summit, the Clarity Act made progress, and ETH may be included in discussions on strategic reserves. The candlesticks tell you: it broke above multiple EMA lines on heavy volume and climbed above $2,400.

First: The policy tailwinds are here, but chasing higher could leave you at the top.

Trump held a White House crypto summit, ETF net inflows reached $189 million in a single day—the largest in nearly 10 months—short positions worth hundreds of millions were liquidated, and ETH violently surged from $2,000 to $2,400.

But look closely—daily RSI has already reached 84, indicating extreme overbought conditions. Over the past year, every time RSI rose above 80, a 10-15% pullback followed.

Second: The fundamentals are strengthening, but you need to buy at the right level.

The staking rate is 30%, and ETFs are beginning to offer staking yields, allowing institutions to directly earn a 3% yield. Major players such as BlackRock and Fidelity saw cumulative net inflows exceed $500 million in August, while ETH balances on exchanges continue to decline.

These are all long-term tailwinds, but most of them have already been priced in over the short term. The real opportunity is not chasing higher—it is waiting for a pullback to add to your position. Institutions built positions below $2,300, while you insist on chasing at $2,400—this is not investing; it is giving money to market makers.

Third: The technical picture has reached a critical level.

$2,400 is the breakout level, but $2,430-$2,450 represents intraday high resistance, while $2,500 is a psychological threshold plus a supply zone. The short-term scenario is clear: either it holds above $2,450 on heavy volume and continues toward $2,500-$2,600, or it pulls back to $2,320-$2,350 to confirm support before moving higher again.

Historical pattern: A sharp rise is always followed by aftershocks. If you were a major player, would you push directly to $2,500 and let everyone make money, or first dump it to $2,320 to shake out those who chased before pushing it higher?

The bulls and bears are battling—you decide

On one side:

White House summit policy tailwinds, with the strategic reserve narrative beginning

ETF inflows of $189 million in a single day, the largest in nearly 10 months

Short positions worth hundreds of millions liquidated, with strong short-squeeze momentum

The staking + ETF yield narrative, with institutions continuing to buy

On the other side:

RSI at 84, extremely overbought, with a very high probability of a pullback

It failed three times to break through $2,430-$2,450

Profit-taking positions accumulating after the sharp rise

Once those who chased higher are trapped, panic selling will accelerate

Key levels

Resistance above: $2,430-$2,450 → $2,500 → $2,600-$2,800

Support below: $2,320-$2,350 (recommended pullback zone) → $2,200-$2,250 (a break below signals weakness)

Trading strategies

Short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to $2,320-$2,350 to go long in batches, with a stop-loss at $2,200 and a target of $2,500-$2,600. If it holds above $2,450 on heavy volume, chase with a small position, with a stop-loss below $2,400.

Swing traders:

$2,300-$2,350 is the accumulation zone, with a target of $2,700-$2,800. Exit if it breaks below $2,200. A pullback is inevitable after a sharp rise—don’t fear missing out.

Long-term believers:

Continue dollar-cost averaging below $2,300, driven by the triple catalysts of staking + ETFs + upgrades, with a target of $4,000+ by the end of 2026.

Be cautious with short positions:

Short sellers have already seen hundreds of millions liquidated, making countertrend shorts extremely risky. Consider them only if it breaks below $2,300 on heavy volume and RSI shows divergence.

ETH now looks just like $4,500 in February 2024—

99% of people chased higher and got trapped, then cursed the “market maker,” but after the pullback it rose all the way to $4,900.

On the day $2,450 breaks out on heavy volume, you will realize:

It was never that ETH was incapable—it was that you bought at the highest point and sold at the lowest point every time.

At what price did you buy ETH?

At $2,400, do you dare chase?#BTCETH反弹交易思路 #XRP大涨16% $BTC $ETH $SOL $NVDA $SNDK #BTC breaks above $75000

This—look at point 2, item 3. U.S. stocks being listed on traditional crypto exchanges is beneficial to the exchanges in every way, and for us traders, the advantages also outweigh the disadvantages;

Overall, it simply means we have more options and no longer have to eat shit in the altcoin traps (although the shit has been tasting pretty good these past two days);

The key to making profits still lies in learning quickly, adapting, and maintaining self-control.

That night, I took profit on my Ether futures position at 2100. Then I woke up the next morning and saw that Bitcoin was up 10% and Ether was up 20%. What would your first reaction be?

My first reaction was: 1. Bitcoin would catch up; 2. Hurry up and look for those large-cap altcoins that hadn’t risen as aggressively as Ether.

Now I want to say this: Given the strength of Bitcoin’s rise and the steepness of this slope, there will inevitably be rotation in the crypto market. Remember, I said inevitably!

Hope the crypto market stays green all the way😁

$ZIG Looking Strong!

$ZIG has shown a powerful bullish surge with a sharp bounce off the solid $0.0400 support level.

Buyers are stepping in heavy pushing the momentum right up to test the key resistance at $0.0448.

Next stop $0.1

If this buying pressure holds and breaks past resistance we could easily see the chart trigger a huge continuation rally towards new local highs.

Keep a close eye on the volume this setup is looking very primed for the next leg up!
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