Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

The prediction I posted in the community on Saturday has come true for crude oil, which has indeed come down, but gold hasn’t yet. Oil: I tried placing a few short positions but canceled them all. The entry levels were insanely good, around 87. Gold: I also had a short order at 4700, but canceled that too. I was only betting on a small retracement in the first place. At the current oil price, I would have already closed the position. Besides, having to spend time and energy monitoring them every day isn’t really worth it.

ETH at $2,450—are you chasing it?
Look past the surface: a violent rebound, with retail traders shouting, “Back to the top.”
Up 30% in a week, surging from 1900 straight to 2530, marking the strongest weekly gain since May 2025. But the candlesticks tell you this: the daily RSI has reached the overbought zone at 75, the funding rate has turned positive at an annualized 11%, and the long-short ratio is severely skewed—this is not the initial leg of a major rally, but a high-level digestion phase.
First: a weaker dollar + a short squeeze, not a sudden improvement in fundamentals.
On August 19, expectations of U.S. Treasury buybacks weakened the dollar, and shorts were swept away in one wave. Weekly short liquidations surged, with single-day short liquidations exceeding $32.4k—the price was “squeezed upward” by derivatives, while on-chain fees followed later.
The Glamsterdam upgrade is not due until Q4 2026, and the Fusaka scaling narrative has long been priced in. There is no “immediate bullish shock” from the protocol; the reasons for the price increase have already been exhausted.
Second: institutions are buying, but you need to see how they are buying.
BlackRock bought nearly $700 million worth of ETH in a single week, while BitMine bought another 32.4k ETH last week (about $81 million), bringing its holdings close to 5% of the circulating supply, most of which has already been staked.
Institutions are “allocating”; retail traders are “gambling.”
Third: technically, it has reached a “balance point between bulls and bears.”
The 2500-2550 area above is a dense zone of weekly moving averages + this cycle’s high, while 2415-2380 below is the first support.
Daily RSI at 75 is overbought, and the funding rate is 11% annualized—longs are paying the shorts’ wages. This is not an early-trend feature; it is a late-trend feature.
Only a break above 2550 allows talk of 2700-3000; a break below 2380 means watching 2300 or even 2220.
The bull-bear battle—judge for yourself
On one side:
ETF net inflows of nearly $700 million in a single week, led by BlackRock buying
BitMine holdings close to 5% of circulating supply, accumulating with real money
A 32% staking rate, with the circulating supply continuing to be locked up
The weaker dollar + rate-cut expectations are still building momentum mid-term
On the other:
Up 30% in a week, RSI 75 overbought, funding rate turned positive
2500-2550 rejected three times
New catalysts will not arrive until Q4, creating a news vacuum
Macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC
Resistance above: 2470-2485 → 2500-2550 (strong resistance) → 2700 → 2820 → 3000
Support below: 2415-2380 → 2300-2220 → 2000-2085 (major-level defense)
Trading strategies (no fluff)
Plan A: Buy the dip on a pullback
Wait for a lower wick and a high-volume stabilization in the 2380-2410 range before entering; stop-loss if the daily close falls below 2300, targets 2470-2500 → 2530-2550. Reduce the position at 2530—don’t get greedy.
Plan B: Chase the breakout long
Only chase after a close above 2550 on the 4H or higher timeframe holds, followed by a pullback that holds above 2500; targets 2700 → 2820 → 3000.
Plan C: Short at highs
A spike to 2470-2530 followed by a pullback can be shorted with a small position; stop-loss above 2560, targets 2450 → 2415 → 2380.
Position risk management:
Risk per trade no more than 1%-2% of total capital
A position opened by chasing at the current price should not exceed 30% of a normal position
With the funding rate at 11% annualized, account for the cost of holding long positions overnight
Reduce leverage before the September 15-16 FOMC
What does ETH look like now?
Like BTC in September 2021—
After rising 30% in a week, everyone shouted “100k,” but it took two months of sideways trading before the real breakout.
2450 is not the place to go all in; it is an exam room.
The test is whether you can keep your hands under control.
Waiting for a pullback, waiting for a breakout, waiting for certainty—is 10,000 times more important than betting on direction at this level.
Are you long or short at 2450?
How are you planning to trade this ETH move?#BTC回调至79000美元 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #英伟达财报周 $BTC $ETH $SOL

By the way, this is a new group.

Stablecoins are gradually moving from “money in trading accounts” into everyday spending. As of August, the cumulative amount loaded onto USDC- and USDT-linked stablecoin cards had reached $13.8 billion, an increase of nearly $10 billion over the past year. USDC remains the primary player, relying more on fintech and payment infrastructure, while USDT is more actively used on exchanges, for remittances, and in emerging markets.

Stop buying paid research reports! Copy these 9 prompts, and you can become an AI stock-picking genius too:
1. Research Report
You are now a senior Wall Street stock research analyst.
Please analyze the stock:
You must cover:
- How the company makes money and how its revenue is broken down
- Where its moat really lies
- Whether the industry is currently benefiting from tailwinds or facing headwinds
- Whether its financials are healthy: revenue growth, profit margins, and debt
- Its biggest risks
- Whether its valuation is expensive compared with its competitors
- Three scenarios: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic
- How it may perform over the next 12 to 24 months
2. Five-Year Financial Checkup
Please break down the financial data for [stock ticker] over the past 5 years.
Focus on:
- Whether revenue growth is accelerating or slowing
- The net profit trend
- Whether free cash flow reflects real earnings or just looks good on paper
- Changes in gross margin and net margin
- Whether debt is high and debt repayment pressure is significant
- Whether ROE (return on equity) is stable
3. Moat Score
Evaluate the competitive barriers of [stock ticker].
Discuss each of the following:
- How strong is the brand?
- Are there network effects?
- Is it difficult for customers to switch providers?
- Is the company’s cost structure lower than its competitors’?
- Does it have protective advantages such as patents, proprietary technology, or licenses?
Then compare it with its top competitors, give its moat a score from 1 to 10, and explain why it does not deserve a perfect score and why it does not deserve a low score.
4. Investment-Bank-Style Valuation
Conduct a valuation analysis of [stock ticker].
Please include:
- Its P/E ratio compared with its peers and its own historical valuation
- A rough estimate of a reasonable value range using DCF
- The approximate average valuation for the industry
- Conclusion: Is it cheap, fairly valued, or expensive right now?
5. Risk Assessment
List the biggest risks of investing in [stock ticker].
Cover at least:
- Macroeconomic risks
- The risk of disruption in the industry
- Competitors taking market share
- Regulatory and policy risks
- Debt and financial risks
Rank them from most dangerous to relatively manageable. For each risk, clearly explain how it could unfold and how the stock price might react if it materializes.
6. Growth Potential Analysis
Analyze whether [stock ticker] can continue to deliver growth in the future.
Focus on:
- How large the market is
- Whether the industry is growing quickly
- Where it can expand next: new products, new markets, and new customers
- Whether AI or technology could provide leverage
Finally, estimate the possible growth range over the next 5 to 10 years, and identify the assumptions most likely to fall short.
7. Will Institutional Investors Buy It?
You are now a hedge fund portfolio manager. Determine whether [stock ticker] is worth holding as a long-term position.
Clearly explain:
- Why institutions might buy it
- Why institutions might avoid it
- Potential catalysts that could drive the stock price higher in the future
- The investment thesis in one sentence
8. Bull-Bear Debate
For [stock ticker], write an analyst debate.
One side should be firmly bullish, and the other firmly bearish.
Both sides must support their arguments with data, valuation, and business logic. No personal attacks or empty slogans.
Finally, provide a balanced, non-partisan conclusion: Does it look more like an opportunity or a trap right now?
9. Should You Buy It Right Now?
Evaluate whether buying [stock ticker] today is appropriate.
Please provide:
- A 1-year short-term outlook
- A 5-year-plus long-term outlook
- Key catalysts
- Major risks
- Final conclusion: Buy / Hold / Avoid
The conclusion must include conditions: At what price and under what circumstances can it be bought, and under what circumstances must you stay away.
First use No. 1 to get the big picture, then use Nos. 2, 4, and 5 to examine the details, and finally use Nos. 8 and 9 to compare and make a decision.

SOL at $96—would you get in?
First, the surface view: the rocket launched and then lost power, leaving retail traders debating whether to chase.
It rose 25%-35% in 7 days, surging directly from 75-77 to 100+, with a market cap of $56.5 billion, firmly ranking in the top five. It hit 103 twice and was rejected, now oscillating narrowly between 95-98 today. The daily RSI at 79-80 is extremely overbought, while the 4H RSI has cooled to 57. Wait for a pullback—don't chase.
First: ETFs are buying aggressively, but the price has already gotten "hyped" in advance.
U.S. spot SOL ETFs have accumulated net inflows of $1.22 billion, hitting a record high, with a single-day peak of $33.5 million. Trading volume has returned to its highest level since October 2025. Institutional access is open, and real money is flowing in.
Sounds like nothing but bullish news? But SOL has already moved from 75 to 103, covering a month's worth of gains for others.
Retail traders chase after seeing the news, while institutions have already finished buying before the news comes out.
Retail traders are still excitedly checking ETF inflow data, while smart money has quietly reduced positions at 103.
Second: the governance vote aims for deflation, but participation is frighteningly low.
SGP-0002: Double the pace of inflation reduction, bringing terminal inflation forward to 1.5% by 2029, with 18.9 million fewer SOL issued in the future.
SGP-0003: Burn 100% of resource fees, increasing daily burns from 650 SOL to a full 7,500-9,000 SOL.
Proposal passes = epic mid-term bullish catalyst, with SOL scarcity surging
Proposal fails = sentiment retracement, with all the capital trading the expectation fleeing
Retail traders are fantasizing about deflationary upside; before the bullish news materializes, it's all expectation trading.
Third: a signal has appeared on the technical chart that must be taken seriously.
The daily chart is far above the MA50 (78) and MA200 (81), while the 50-day moving average has moved back above the 200-day moving average, forming a bullish golden-cross structure—this is the mid-term bullish framework.
94.5-95.5 is the intraday defense zone, while 91-93 is the high-quality demand zone. If 94.5 fails to hold, a pullback to 91-93 would be the most comfortable entry point.
The bulls and bears are battling—see for yourself
On one side:
ETF cumulative net inflows hit a record $1.22 billion, with institutions continuing to buy aggressively
Governance vote deflationary proposals; scarcity will surge if passed
On-chain RWA at $4 billion and stablecoins at $16 billion, with the ecosystem recovering
Weekly breakout above the bear-market resistance zone at $90, with the structure strengthening
On the other side:
Up 25%-35% in a week, with the daily RSI at 80 and overbought
Governance vote participation is insufficient; failure to pass would be bearish
Failed to break through 103 twice, creating double-top pressure
Tonight's PCE + NVIDIA earnings + Friday's Jackson Hole: a triple macro shock
Resistance above: 97.5-98.5 → 100-103 (double top) → 108-112 → 120
Support below: 94.5-95.5 → 91-93 (golden buying zone) → 87-88 → 78-81 (the bulls' last line of defense)
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to 91-93.5 to go long, stop-loss at 90.5 (daily breakdown), target 98.5-100; a breakout above 103 targets 108-112.
There is only one shorting scenario: rejection at 99.5-103 on a rebound, with a long upper wick + increased volume but no price advance; target 95→92, stop-loss upon holding above 104.
For swing traders:
Take a small long position on the first halt at 94-95, and add at 91-93. Stop-loss at 87.5. Target 100-103; after a breakout above 103, look toward 108-112.
Event management (most important):
Before tonight's PCE: halve existing positions, and wait until after the data to open new positions
Hot PCE + hawkish Warsh → pullback path 96→91→87
Moderate data + dovish remarks → clear 100 first, then look toward 112-120
NVIDIA earnings will determine the risk-appetite switch
SOL now looks just like SOL in 2023—
99% of people think "it's gone up too much, wait for a pullback," but when the pullback reaches 91-93, you won't dare get in.
On the day 103 breaks, you will discover:
It wasn't that SOL was incapable—the problem was that your courage, just like in the previous wave, happened to get off the train at the starting point.
What is your SOL cost basis?
At 96, would you get in?#BTC回调至79000美元 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #英伟达财报周 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Would you chase BTC at $79,000?
First, on the surface: bullish news is bombarding the market, and shorts are being slaughtered.
Over the past 10 days, BTC has surged from 64k to 81k, gaining 23% in a single week, while short liquidations hit a record high. ETF inflows totaled $2.7-$3.0 billion in August, the Treasury’s buyback of long-term bonds is suppressing the dollar, and Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act. The weekly chart has just moved above the 50-week moving average, while RSI at 80-88 signals overbought conditions. The direction is right, but the price is frighteningly expensive.
First: ETFs are buying, but buying momentum is starting to slow.
On August 24, net inflows were $338 million, plunging to $7.5 million on August 25. Six to seven consecutive days of aggressive accumulation have turned into “slowing down and waiting.”
The same script: In March 2024, ETF inflows slowed after a consecutive streak, and BTC fell from 73k to 56k. In January 2025, the same rhythm took BTC from 108k to 89k.
Retail investors are still shouting, “The bull market is here,” while institutions have already started waiting for the data.
Second: The macro window has arrived. Today through Friday is a “high-pressure chamber.”
Today (August 26) at 8:30 a.m. ET: July PCE + Q2 GDP revision
August 27: Nvidia earnings
August 27-29: Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting
Friday, August 28: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first keynote speech
Core PCE is expected at 3.3% year-on-year (unchanged), while the second GDP revision is expected at 1.5%.
Softer data: the dollar falls, and BTC charges toward 81200 again
Data in line with expectations: range-bound action at high levels, waiting for Friday
Hotter data: the core logic behind this rally—“fiscal easing + depreciation trade”—will be undermined, with the first sell-off targeting 76500-77k
Third: Two contradictory signals have emerged on the technical front.
Signal A: The trend has indeed strengthened.
The weekly chart has just moved above the 50-week moving average (approximately 77k-80k), marking the first time since November 2025. CryptoQuant Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 within a week, the highest level since the top in October last year.
Signal B: But the price is too expensive.
Daily RSI is at 80-88, extremely overbought. The price is nearly 20% above the 50-day moving average (approximately 66k). After surging to 81200 on August 25, BTC closed with a long upper wick and a bearish candle—a typical “first stagnation candle after an acceleration phase.”
The bulls and bears face off. You decide.
On one side:
ETFs have posted net inflows for six consecutive days, totaling $2.7-$3.0 billion in August
The weekly chart has moved above the 50-week moving average, strengthening the medium-term structure
The Treasury is buying back long-term bonds, and a weaker dollar is bullish for risk assets
After short liquidations, leverage has been flushed out, and futures open interest has fallen to near five-month lows
On the other side:
Daily RSI is at 80-88, extremely overbought
A rally followed by a pullback with a long upper wick on August 25, signaling stagnation
ETF buying plunged from $338 million to $7.5 million, showing a slowdown
The dual risks of PCE and Jackson Hole, with extremely high volatility
Resistance above: 79500-80k → 81200-81300 (the August 25 high) → 82800-84000 (50-week moving average + 0.382 retracement)
Support below: 78300-78500 → 76700-77300 (50-week EMA) → 73900-75000 (trend lifeline)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Reduce existing long positions when BTC is above 79000 to no more than 30%. After the PCE data is released, wait for a 15-minute candle to hold before taking action. If hotter data sends BTC below 78300, consider a small short position targeting 77000/75000, with a stop-loss at 79800. Move quickly in and out.
Swing traders:
Place buy orders at 77200 and 74800. Do not place them at 78800, a level that “looks cheap but is actually still halfway up the mountain.” Add the first 20-30% of the position on a pullback to 76700-77300, with a stop-loss at 75800; add the second tranche to reach 50-60% at 73900-75000, with a stop-loss at 72800.
Breakout longs:
After a 4H close above 81300 and a retest of 80000-80500 that holds, open a long position targeting 82800-84000, with a stop-loss below 80000.
Invalidation line: If the daily chart closes below 75000, the August rally will be downgraded to an oversold rebound, and the strategy will shift from “buying dips” to “selling rallies.”
BTC now looks like March 2024’s 70k—
99% of people thought, “The ETF is here, so it’s going straight to 100k,” but it took eight months of consolidation before a true breakout. The direction was right, but those who chased the top had to endure an entire summer.
The moment 81200 breaks, you will realize:
You can have the right direction and the wrong entry, and still lose money.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At $79,000, would you dare chase it?#BTC回调至79000美元 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #英伟达财报周 $BTC $ETH $SOL

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$790 ZEC—are you chasing it?
Look at the surface first: the ETF launched, price surged and then pulled back, and retail investors panicked.
Over the past week, ZEC rocketed from $570 to 883-888, hitting an eight-year high, as the entire market celebrated, “The spring of privacy coins is here.” Then on August 25, Grayscale ZCSH officially opened trading on NYSE Arca, immediately printing a major bearish candle that drove the low to 754. It is now struggling at 790.
A classic case of “buy the anticipation, sell the news.”
First: the ETF is here, but its 2.5% fee shows institutions are not that enthusiastic.
The world’s first spot ZEC ETF has approximately $310 million in AUM and holds 390k ZEC. Sounds like a major bullish catalyst?
But look closely at the fee: 2.5%. BTC ETFs generally charge 0.2-0.4%, making this 5-10 times more expensive. Even Grayscale itself lacks the confidence to attract institutional capital on a large scale, so it can only make a quick profit through high fees. First-year management fees will flow back into the ecosystem for marketing—in plain English: they are worried nobody will buy it, so they are using the money for advertising.
Buying ahead of the ETF launch, then selling after the launch—the classic playbook.
Second: the NU7 vote is about to set off an even bigger bombshell.
The holder vote launched around August 25 covers issues including whether to adjust the issuance mechanism, weaken or eliminate the traditional halving, and switch to a smoother issuance curve.
Only spendable shielded ZEC in the Ironwood privacy pool has voting rights, with the threshold rumored to be around one million coins.
If passed: miners’ security budget improves, but the narrative of “mirroring BTC halvings” is broken.
If rejected: the status quo remains, but pressure on miners’ income continues.
Third: derivatives have become dangerously overheated.
Perpetual/futures OI surged from 960 million to 1.8 billion within a week, nearly doubling. Positive funding rates indicate that longs are packed in to the point of suffocation.
Once BTC pulls back or macro headwinds emerge, ZEC’s downside impact will far exceed the spot decline. The more crowded the longs, the more brutal the liquidation cascade.
Bulls versus bears—you decide.
On one side:
The world’s first spot ZEC ETF is now listed, opening the institutional channel.
The Ironwood upgrade is live, supply is verifiable, and confidence is recovering.
Shielded supply accounts for 25%-31%, compressing the actual circulating float.
From 570 to 888, volume in the main rally exploded.
On the other side:
The ETF launched and immediately saw selling, while the 2.5% fee exposed limited institutional demand.
The NU7 vote could rewrite the halving narrative, creating enormous uncertainty.
OI doubled to 1.8 billion in a week, and longs are crowded.
Daily RSI remains overbought at 70+, while price has deviated too far from the moving averages.
Overhead resistance: 810-830 → 850-870 → 883-888 (eight-year high)
Downside support: 780-790 (weak) → 750-765 (first line of defense) → 720-730 → 650-680
A daily close below 730 ends the main rally. A weekly close below 700 signals a medium-term weakening trend.
Trading strategy
Existing long positions (entry below 720):
Reduce 1/3-1/2 above 830, bringing the cost basis below 750.
Existing long positions (entry at 780-820):
Take half off first at 790-810, keep a core position targeting 850, and place the stop-loss at 748.
Flat and looking to go long:
Do not chase at 790. Wait for a pullback to 750-765 and a hammer or high-volume lower wick, with a stop-loss at 738 and targets of 810-850. Alternatively, wait for the daily chart to hold above 830 before chasing on confirmation.
Looking to short:
Watch for a long upper wick and declining volume around 808-828. Take a small short with a stop-loss at 848 and targets of 765-730. If 888 is reclaimed on strong volume, exit immediately.
Position-sizing rule:
A one-way position must not exceed 20% of capital, with leverage capped at 3x. For highly volatile assets with crowded contracts and a macro event window, reduce leverage by default.
ZEC now looks like Coinbase on its first day of listing—
Everyone thought “ETF listing = immediate surge,” but the price surged and then pulled back, retail chased at the top, and smart money waited at the bottom to buy.
Those who chased at 880 and those who entered at 570 are looking at the same ZEC, but living in completely different worlds.
This market has never lacked opportunities; it lacks patience.
What is your ZEC cost basis?
At 790, are you chasing or waiting?#BTC回调至79000美元 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #英伟达财报周 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

To thank the group members who have stayed with me in the crypto space since last year’s bull market, we held a King of Glory bounty tournament in the community last night with a total prize pool of $1,000. I personally paid the entire $1,000 prize pool!
A total of 30 group members participated, forming 6 teams, and the entire tournament was livestreamed.
In the end, “If You’re Going to Do It, Be Number One” Team (Team 1) won the championship, with each member receiving $70!

The market is really looking good. I went to bed early yesterday and found that several tokens had surged. Here’s a summary of the tokens recently researched in the group: Yesterday’s $DTF was posted at 700k, and entry was confirmed at 1.2m. It peaked above 7m, reaching 10x at the high ➕. For Martian, $Martians 800k, I called for entry right away. After trading the swings back and forth, Lao Ma later reposted it, confirming it as the leading coin. It peaked at 8m, also reaching 10x ➕. An earlier one, $Prism 500k, was called for entry, peaked at 3m, and is now at 1.7m, with a high of 6x.

Gold at $4,660, while BTC is still hovering around $79,000—the market is already pricing in “rate hikes are useless”
Gold, at $4,660, is nearing a three-month high, up more than 7% in a week.
BTC is hovering around $79,000. After surging above $81,000 yesterday, it was dumped back down.
The same macro environment, the same rate-hike expectations, yet the two “non-yielding assets” are moving worlds apart.
What is gold pricing in? And what is BTC waiting for?
Let’s start with gold.
Are rate-hike expectations still there? Yes. CME data shows a 67% probability of a rate hike in December and a 64% probability of holding rates steady in September.
But the market no longer believes it.
It no longer believes rate hikes can solve inflation. It no longer believes the hammer in the Fed’s hands can smash through three walls—tariffs, oil prices, and AI investment.
Gold is pricing in a three-part narrative:
First, persistent inflation. PCE is still at 3.7%, versus a 2% target—nearly double. Inflation has remained above target for more than five years.
Second, erosion of confidence in the dollar. U.S. public debt has surpassed $40 trillion. Richmond Fed President Barkin said it plainly: “There will be a reckoning, and no one can tell you when it will happen.”
Third, unsustainable debt. IMF Managing Director Georgieva put it bluntly: “All countries need to address their own fiscal problems.”
JPMorgan forecasts average gold prices of around $5,243 in 2026, with prices potentially rising to $6,000 before year-end.
Gold is speaking through its price: Rate hikes can no longer scare me.
What about BTC?
The “digital gold” narrative for BTC has been disproven far too many times during periods of tightening liquidity.
During the 2022 rate-hike cycle, BTC fell from $69k to $16k. “Digital gold”? It didn’t exist. The market only recognizes one truth: when liquidity tightens, risk assets die first.
What the crypto market needs is a clear signal of a turn toward looser liquidity—not “rate hikes are useless,” but “rate cuts are coming.”
But there is one key point:
Once the market confirms that the rate-hike cycle is over, BTC’s upside elasticity will be far greater than gold’s.
A 7% weekly gain for gold is called “nearing a high.” A 22% weekly gain for BTC is called “normal volatility.”
Fairlead Strategies founder said it plainly: BTC has more upside potential than gold.
Where is the turning point? Friday.
At 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, Fed Chair Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office in Jackson Hole.
This is the most critical window for him to rebuild the Fed’s credibility.
If Warsh sends any signal that “rate hikes are nearing an end” → BTC could stage an explosive catch-up rally.
If Warsh remains ambiguously hawkish → BTC could face short-term pressure.
But gold’s strength has already made one thing clear: the “slow bleed” effect is building.
The market is not stupid. When gold has risen for five consecutive weeks and is on track for its biggest monthly gain since 1999, tell me, are rate hikes still useful?
It is clearly the same macro narrative, so why did gold run first?
Because BTC does not need the story that “inflation is here”—that story was already beaten to death in 2021.
BTC needs the story that “the money is coming.”
Rate cuts are the launch button for BTC.
During rate-hike cycles, BTC is gold’s junior. During rate-cut cycles, gold is BTC’s junior.
Those who understand, understand.
Gold is already voting with its price: Rate hikes are useless.
BTC is still waiting for a confirmation signal.
And that signal may be in Warsh’s speech on Friday.
Let’s wait and see. #BTC回调至79000美元 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #英伟达财报周 $BTC $ETH $XAU

As the old saying goes: “$BTC has no ceiling because the U.S. dollar has no floor.”
1. The money printer cannot stop
The Treasury is once again buying debt by another name. Put simply, the U.S. government cannot possibly stop printing money.
2. The hotter AI gets, the more valuable BTC becomes
In the future, AI will create an excess of intelligence, while central banks will create an excess of fiat currency. In an era when everything is abundant, what is most valuable is absolute scarcity.
3. Don’t try to guess the short-term peak
There’s no need to obsess over how high it will rise this year. As long as you keep DCAing and hold for the long term, then pass this asset on to your grandchildren, they will be so happy they’ll wake up laughing from their dreams.
4. Smart money is building positions with real money
Data shows that retail investors have allocated nearly 10% of their personal assets to cryptocurrency on average. With this steady, long-term buying, combined with a backdrop of rampant money printing, it will be difficult for prices not to rise over the long term!

Brief Review: 8.19-8.26 Crypto Trading ------The value of the strategy of exchanging high-level altcoins for Bitcoin continues to rise. Doubts before the breakout, and the importance of watching the market every day. At the time, everyone’s attention was still basically focused on U.S. stocks:

Most of the short liquidity has already been swept, and price will likely start moving sideways around 80k.
Once the consolidation ends, the more likely move is for price to first rise and consume the short liquidity in the 80-90k range before falling.
So at this stage, I personally believe there is still one final upward move, which will only end once the rebound is over.
If BTC holds steady while moving sideways at 80k, then even if liquidity in the altcoin market is currently extremely poor, altcoins should still move a little. So you can look for opportunities to position yourself in some altcoins you favor and see if you can get a share of the upside.

To stay in good shape, you really need to pay close attention to your overall food intake~🥝

The $EIGEN that Polychain redeemed from staking 3 months ago: 14.65 million ($3.09 million) were transferred to Coinbase Prime 6 hours ago. Of the 131.8 million $EIGEN they redeemed at the end of May, 46.86 million were restaked 1 month ago; 14.65 million were transferred to Coinbase Prime today; and the remaining 70.29 million are still held in the address. Transferred to Coinbase Prime

Bitcoin has evolved over the past 17 years from “being mineable with a home computer” into today’s industrial-scale mining. I did some research, and mining 1 BTC per day today may require an investment of RMB 200–300 million or even more in mining machines, electricity, and infrastructure. Bitcoin turns computing power into an asset, while TapeOut is attempting to turn “digital designs and computational structures” into assets. Bitcoin: Capital → ASICs → Electricity → Hashrate → BTC

Talking about the trading plan:
It is mainly intraday trading, with a relatively clear trend.
The previous surge came unexpectedly, catching both bears and bulls off guard.
Since July, we have been reminding everyone that 57K was the bottom, and have repeatedly advocated going primarily long and buying on dips.
The overall bullish direction was correct, so it should not have caused major losses for those who follow me.
The current short-term market is consolidating at high levels after a rapid rise. This type of consolidation is not suitable for trying to call the top.
If you really want to bet on a decline, try shorting after each rapid move to a new high. Timing is important for this as well.
There are several situations in which you can try to trade, but this type of left-side trading has both advantages and disadvantages. (I will not elaborate.)
My BTC plan for today is to go long on a pullback around 774-768.
Gold has experienced an hourly-level reversal. The focus should be on short positions in the near term, with a breakout to a new high serving as the invalidation.
The macro environment is currently favorable. There are no major negative factors for now. Short-term negative factors are providing opportunities for a pullback, not signaling a top or trend reversal.
The only potential negative factor this week is Fed Chair Wosh’s first speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday.
From a swing-trading perspective, a pullback to 73K-72K would be another opportunity to get back into BTC.
[The above is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice]
$BTC $XAU

After $BTC surged above $80,000 and then pulled back slightly, the [Garrett Jin whale entity] added 600 BTC to its long position at $79,000 in the early morning ($47.4 million). They have held the BTC long position for 3 months, reaching a maximum unrealized loss of $23 million in early July. The sharp rise over the past week brought them from an unrealized loss back to breakeven and a slight unrealized profit: they now hold a 1,868 BTC long position ($147 million), with an average price of $77,090 and an unrealized profit of $278.