Is there still a chance for Non-fungible Token to rise by tens or hundreds of times? Is the Non-fungible Token track still worth paying attention to?
Recently, the market has been bullish, and the market sentiment is slowly FOMO. Someone began to say
At present, Non-fungible Token blue chips have fallen dozens of times, now buy better Non-fungible Tokens, to the Bull Market is not to go to the sky?
However, the dream is so easy to achieve, obviously contrary to some natural principles: that is, it is impossible to have such a large market, which can be large enough to be known by many people, at least for people in the Crypto Community, it is not a Interest Spread, but the investment participation threshold is so low, and the income is much higher than other targets, and it is also higher than most FT.
To know that the potential of FT can be discovered, a lot depends on either having special insider information or deep insight into the industry.
In my opinion, the following logic needs to be true for this to be true:
Blue-chip Non-fungible Tokens can return to the Market Cap of the last round of Bull Market, and there is still huge upside;
You can choose a good blue chip, or even a better Non-fungible Token target than the blue chip;
The average transaction price of blue chips is real, and you can sell your Non-fungible Token smoothly.
In this article, we will analyze the above problems one by one. If you read this article, combined with the previous one, you will probably succeed in becoming a player with absolute deep insight in the Non-fungible Token field.
The first question is, do blue-chip Non-fungible Tokens have huge upside?
The total Market Cap of the last round of Non-fungible Token was 3 trillion US dollars, and now the entire Non-fungible Token market is less than 10 billion US dollars, and the top Non-fungible Token is also 5-20 times from the high point of growth space, theoretically, there is still huge room for appreciation from bear to bull.
However, there are two backgrounds to consider:
First, in the last round of Bull Market, Non-fungible Token really formed a track, completing from 0 to 1; second, the biggest driving force of the last round of Bull Market came from the Federal Reserve's near-zero cost borrowing Interests, and investors outside the circle can easily obtain investment funds, and it is easy to be attracted by PFP Non-fungible Token, an investment product without Blockchain cognitive difficulty.
This round of Bear Market has been bred so far, and has not seen the huge evolution of Non-fungible Token, so from the singularity of 1 to 100, this round of Bull Market may not be seen, secondly, without the background of the epidemic, it is difficult to imagine that the Fed will reach the crazy level of the last round of Bull Market interest rate cuts.
Another problem is that the Market Cap of Non-fungible Tokens is calculated by multiplying the floor price by the total amount. If placed in the FT market, it is equivalent to the transaction price multiplied by the total supply.
It seems to be no problem, but the actual problem is big. FT multiplies the current price by the total supply, not the Market Cap, but a complete dilution of the Market Cap.
Since a large part of the Token is not released, the Market Cap is calculated by multiplying the current price by the actual Circulating Supply. If the project doesn't make great progress, or if it's Bull Market, the price will drop as the Circulating Supply increases.
As for Non-fungible Token, first of all, there is no release problem, all are in circulation, unless the MINT is not over, it seems that the price will not be affected by the release, but we look at another data, the real Circulating Supply of most Non-fungible Tokens is only 1-2% of the total supply, that is, most of the supply is "Lock-up Position"!
On the one hand, only this Circulating Supply, without sufficient capital game, can the current Floor Price be an effective price? Can it withstand the smashing of large investors after the price increase?
On the other hand, these so-called "Lock-up Position" Non-fungible Tokens, I am afraid that a large part of them are in the hands of market makers or project methods, and cannot really be locked up like FT.
Just imagine, if you have 500 BAYC in your hand, the last round of Bull Market, more than a hundred Ether values were not sold, or did not sell, and now it rises to this price again, do you sell it?
The logical thinking of FT pulling, the market maker accumulation at the bottom, and then pulling up the tied up price of retail investors, making a move as the price rises.
But Non-fungible Token is so lacking in liquidity, not to mention that retail investors are trapped at the high point of the Bull Market, and the chips in the hands of the bookmakers are a lot left, so whose chips are sucked at the bottom? Without accumulation, there is no motivation to pull the plate. When the market sentiment comes, there is no Zhuang control will naturally rise, and when it comes to the tied up price, retail investors have not yet made a move, and the market makers may have made a move.
Therefore, to summarize the first article, the high Market Cap of the last round of cattle Non-fungible Token is a unique product, and the high Market Cap of Non-fungible Token may not represent the high value of Non-fungible Token products, due to the lack of trading volume, the price of Non-fungible Token is not the result of a full game in the market, and many Non-fungible Token collection prices rise every time, there is huge selling pressure, which comes from the large investors chips who are "locked-up position".
The second question is, can you choose a good blue chip, or even a better Non-fungible Token target than the blue chip?
Of course, this depends on who chooses, and the top Non-fungible Token players must have their own uniqueness, but as ordinary people, even professional industry researchers are very difficult.
Let's first look at the Ether main chain, the birthplace of Non-fungible Token, you can hardly imagine that 5 of the top 21 FTs have almost no trading volume, or single-digit Ethereum, but this is how Non-fungible Token appeared.
SECOND, WE COME TO OTHER POPULAR PUBLIC CHAINS, SUCH AS THE AVAX CHAIN. Crabda, Huners, the top two companies in terms of historical Market Cap, have almost dried up their liquidity to zero, and there are no new buyers, let alone targets at the bottom of the rankings.
The top two Non-fungible Token ecosystems of Solona, which has been very active recently, are in a similar situation.
DeGods has only had one transaction a day lately, and I don't know if it's an attempt to maintain the illusion that the project is not dead.
When liquidity dries up, we can roughly judge that the project is zero.
The results have shown that the probability of selecting potential blue chips is actually very low.
We also have to analyze the reasons behind it: why yesterday was still a star, in less than a year, most Non-fungible Tokens are dead.
The reason is probably that Non-fungible Token does not have much value at all, the cost threshold for creating a project is too low, and a set of collections is issued on ME, and CHATGPT designs a set of pictures, and it can be sent out for another 60U.
With such a low cost, Non-fungible Token still wants to be sold, in addition to the aesthetics we said, the operation of the project party, etc., where is the biggest key point?
Some say that it will brag about the narrative.
Some say, preaching scarcity.
Some people say that the project party continues to do things and empower Non-fungible Token.
Some people also say that they rely on creating hot spots, letting celebrities hold them, and constantly controlling the market.
Actually, these are all talking about a thing, making up a Pon's.
The essence of Pond is to let others take over the purchase of stones by proving that stones are not just stones, but scarce stones, and celebrities also come to buy stones, and they can get a lot of income later after buying stones.
The problem is, stones are not scarce, and everyone can do it to add meaning to stones.
The difference here is who is better at adding meaning to the stone?
The answer is that for the new Non-fungible Token, it is difficult for us to see or get useful information, whether it is trading volume, sales ratio, or picture art, we cannot directly know what the founder is doing, and there is no way to know whether he has the ability to advocate. Without access to essential information, there is no way to analyze, and without analysis, there is no choice, so it is particularly difficult to select potential blue chips.
So, to summarize this, then the essence of Non-fungible Token is not like games or domain names have actual use scenarios, it is a worthless Ponzi. For Pon's, how to identify who will be good Pon's in the early stage? It seems that you can only touch the lottery ticket.
Finally, let's talk about the last question: the average transaction price of blue chips is real, can you successfully sell the Non-fungible Token in your hand?
First of all, we focus on the bluest chip BAYC to see how its liquidity is, so as to give a preliminary answer to whether it can be sold.
According to the crawled data, a total of 1,729 BAYCs have and only one lifetime transaction record, and then look at the listed coins of each Non-fungible Token series on Opensea, almost only 1%-2% Non-fungible Token of the blue-chip Non-fungible Token with a circulation of 10,000 are listed on the market, if these 1,729 BAYCs are all purchased by independent real buyers, then how can BAYC be only 200 listed for sale instead of 1,729?
Unless these trading volumes are brushed, and the chips are in the hands of the dealers, and the circulation is intentionally controlled, BAYC holders who have already made a profit do not sell only because of faith?
So if we want to sell and sell quickly at the current price, we must have high liquidity, but the characteristics of Non-fungible Token are the fragmentation of liquidity, and each collection has its own market segment, so Liquidity is easy to lose and cannot be supplemented by other stock Non-fungible Token funds.
What's more serious is that if a certain Non-fungible TokenLiquidity is withdrawn, you can't find it right away, unlike FT, which has such a hard indicator of trading volume, our community often pushes this kind of message, which is to remind that a certain coin may have a price performance in the future due to an increase or decrease in Liquidity, but Non-fungible Token even if the Liquidity is withdrawn, or even dead, the Non-fungible Token can still maintain a Floor Price, and even the Market Cap ranking is still high, so that for new buyers who are unknown, it can be said that they will die as soon as they come up.
The most terrifying thing here, I have to say: the dealer can even do it, after the floor price exceeds your listing price, you still can't sell. The Non-fungible Token is numbered, and he can only brush his own order in a targeted manner, that is, not buy the Non-fungible Token you are listing.
Therefore, especially investors who have hoarded a large number of Non-fungible Tokens, even if they really get the target right, it is very difficult to make a sale in the end, and eventually become paper wealth.
Speaking of this, you may feel that the Non-fungible Token market is completely a scammer market, it is difficult for blue chips to return to the peak Market Cap, it is even more difficult to select potential blue chips, and if selected, it is not easy to easily sell at a high price.
In fact, not necessarily, Non-fungible Token still has a potential and valuable track, perhaps PFP type Non-fungible Token has come to an end, but new types of Non-fungible Token such as dynamic Non-fungible Token and other new types of Non-fungible Token still have its development space.
Non-fungible Token still has its investment value and unique method, this article is just before you buy Non-fungible Token, pour some cold water, cool down, and calmly choose the target.
