Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high between the third quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026?
Analyzing multiple factors based on macroeconomic and market dynamics, here is a brief summary of the core viewpoints:
Short-term volatility and Trump's policy: Trump's economic plan may bring short-term market pressure by lowering the dollar and yields, and the market is currently digesting this new baseline.
Medium-term impact: Tariff policies may reduce foreign purchases of US Treasury bonds, forcing the domestic market to absorb more debt. Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity may benefit it in the medium to long term.
Market sentiment and the Federal Reserve's response: The market may hit bottom due to recession fears, but when the recession actually arrives, the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's easing policies. The Federal Reserve may ultimately cut interest rates and pave the way for further liquidity measures in 2026.
Altcoin Performance: High-quality altcoins may follow the trajectory of Bitcoin, finding a bottom before the market recovers, while low-quality projects will be eliminated. Market participants tend to invest in high-quality assets like Bitcoin during times of tight liquidity, and then expand to other assets when liquidity improves.
Short-term uncertainty and patience: Predicting market trends in the short term (1-12 weeks) is very difficult. It is recommended to remain patient and plan to gradually increase risk exposure in the coming weeks or months, with an optimistic outlook for the overall prospects starting from the first quarter of 2026.
Overall, the above views emphasize the potential of Bitcoin in the next one to two years, while reminding investors to pay attention to macroeconomic trends and changes in market liquidity, rather than short-term price fluctuations.
Analyzing multiple factors based on macroeconomic and market dynamics, here is a brief summary of the core viewpoints:
Short-term volatility and Trump's policy: Trump's economic plan may bring short-term market pressure by lowering the dollar and yields, and the market is currently digesting this new baseline.
Medium-term impact: Tariff policies may reduce foreign purchases of US Treasury bonds, forcing the domestic market to absorb more debt. Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity may benefit it in the medium to long term.
Market sentiment and the Federal Reserve's response: The market may hit bottom due to recession fears, but when the recession actually arrives, the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's easing policies. The Federal Reserve may ultimately cut interest rates and pave the way for further liquidity measures in 2026.
Altcoin Performance: High-quality altcoins may follow the trajectory of Bitcoin, finding a bottom before the market recovers, while low-quality projects will be eliminated. Market participants tend to invest in high-quality assets like Bitcoin during times of tight liquidity, and then expand to other assets when liquidity improves.
Short-term uncertainty and patience: Predicting market trends in the short term (1-12 weeks) is very difficult. It is recommended to remain patient and plan to gradually increase risk exposure in the coming weeks or months, with an optimistic outlook for the overall prospects starting from the first quarter of 2026.
Overall, the above views emphasize the potential of Bitcoin in the next one to two years, while reminding investors to pay attention to macroeconomic trends and changes in market liquidity, rather than short-term price fluctuations.
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