The probability of it lasting through October 15 is close to 100%, with the market nearly unanimous in judging that the conflict will not immediately resume in the short term.
But as the time horizon lengthens, the probability gradually declines: it falls to 82% by the end of October and further to 62% by mid-November.

measure and plan your bloodline in centuries
for the last 17 years, I thought I'd just been religiously writing and backing up random notes but I've come to realize that I've slowly been writing a manifesto, an autobiography, and an inheritance all at once
lessons, toasts, riddles, jokes, fables, slang, quotes, even fucking ratings for films my favorite cinematographer shoots. all of it typed into my phone and now my journals, all of it for my children, and theirs who I might never meet
each generation adds to it or begins their own, questions what I got wrong, and hands it down, so every chil

$TRUTH After a pullback and breakout of resistance, TRUTH showed the complete price action we were looking for: a strong rally followed by a healthy pullback, then a powerful rebound and a clean breakout above the previous resistance zone. The price is currently trading around 0.0225, with the recent high near 0.0234. Next target price: 0.0240. First take-profit target: 0.0250. Final target: 0.0270. As long as TRUTH continues to hold the broken resistance zone around 0.020–0.021, the bullish continuation pattern remains valid. Strong rebound, successful retest, breakout above resistance… buyi

The probability for this range is significantly higher than for the other two, reflecting traders’ prevailing view: they are betting that Musk will post at a moderately high frequency this week, but not in an explosive burst of activity. The probabilities of higher posting volumes—260–279 and 280–299—decline in sequence, while the odds rise incrementally.

#GateX红牛F1新加坡站夺冠 #每周来晒 F1×Web3 Crossover: Gate Innovations to Look Forward To
Gate can launch full-lifecycle Web3 experiences for racing events, covering three core areas: digital collectibles, trading interactions, and offline benefits
I. In-Depth Extensions of Event-Specific Digital Collectibles
1. Dynamic NFTs Highlighting Individual Races
Launch dynamic NFTs featuring winning moments from individual races such as the Singapore Grand Prix, recording Verstappen’s finish on-chain and including an on-chain certificate of the driver’s signature.
2. Season-Wide Achievement Collection System
Coll

Spcx$SPCX ‌

bottom signals here tbh. people so tired of lousy pa in the trenches the last few weeks that they are looking for anything to fight about

Everyone in the group is calling for a bullish move, so I’m taking the contrarian side. Even with the RTX 5090 priced as high as $10,000, they still sell out instantly. Even a one-unit purchase limit can’t stop it, and GPU shipments have come to a complete standstill. Those who use dollar-cost averaging are looking at long-term production capacity, not short-term sentiment. Weekend trading volume is only 30% of weekday levels, so even a little volume can push the market up. That makes it even more important to keep a steady pace at times like this. If you see things differently, share your rea

Leveraged longs carried most of the pain on Oct 13, losing $250.0M of the $358.5M our streams recorded in forced closures. $ETH took the biggest hit of any coin, with $75.9M liquidated.

The previous post explained how oil makes its way into Bitcoin. This one digs one layer deeper: why does the Fed hike rates even though it knows the problem is oil?
Core inflation is only 2.4%, so in theory the Fed does not need to rush. Oil prices were driven up by war, and rate hikes cannot stop missiles. Yet it still hiked in September, and in December the market was also pricing in nearly a 90% chance of another hike.
The reason goes back 50 years.
In 1973, the oil embargo sent prices up fourfold, and US inflation surged to 12%. Later, when inflation fell back, then-Fed Chair Burns rushed

Follow along and make profits, taking off🛫
#晒出我的持仓收益

GM Everyone
Whatever you do today, give it your all.

$NEAR Even after wiping out both longs and shorts, the market manipulators will still dump it! Keep shorting! Targets: 4.8, 4.5, 4.2! In the long-term pullback, look for prices starting with 3! Welcome to join the bears and pick up money!

Bears tried to push $BTC below the local support again, and failed for the second time.
$83,000 keeps getting defended.
Time for a push towards the local highs?

Whales have made tens of millions, dumped, and run! Are you still stubbornly holding the long position at $ZEC 1380? If you don't get out now, it'll go to zero!
The scythe has already secured its gains, while you're still standing at the top of the mountain in the wind!
This surge isn't because ZEC itself is that powerful; the shorts carried the main force along. In the past 24 hours, short liquidations accounted for 94%, and the price surge triggered a short squeeze, sending it straight up. On top of that, the NU7 upgrade vote passed with 99.9% approval, cutting block time from 75 seconds to

Big Reminder:
US CPI inflation data is scheduled for today at 8:30 am et!
previous: 3.4% | forecast: 3.6%
above 3.6% → markets could face heavy selling pressure.
below 3.6% → markets could see a strong rally.
exactly 3.6% → expect a mixed market reaction.
get ready, market volatility could be wild today!

$SPCXB has already fallen a lot—why can't we say it has bottomed yet?
$SPCXB 24-hour change: -3.33%, current price: 157.25. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI readings are 55 and 18, respectively. Oversold conditions can create demand for a rebound, but a rebound only shows that the decline was sharp; confirming a bottom still requires the price to stop damaging the structure.
Let's pull the camera back to the 24-hour range: low 156.4, high 163.83. Where does the current price of 157.25 sit within this range? That will directly affect what the same signal means. Near the high, strength must prove it is

[ETF Alert] ETF: U.S. spot BTC ETF net inflows +$175.62 million (October 13, with Fidelity FBTC leading and reversing previous outflows) → ① Fund flows: Fidelity ETF clients bought $103 million worth of BTC in a single day, institutional buying rebounded, bullish; ② Negative factors muted: BTC is currently at $83,756.4, down just 0.25% over 24h (range: $82,973–$84,158); a delegated attack on Ethereum wallets caused only minor losses, South Korean financial hackers affected exchanges, and a $90 million spyware case triggered wallet reviews, but negative factors failed to trigger a sell-off; ③ M