#加密市场观察 From 126k to 62k: Crypto in 2026 is more brutal than you’d think
In August 2026, the crypto market is going through the most painful moment of this year so far.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a roughly $62,300–$63,200 range, down about 49.8% from this year’s initial all-time high above $126k. Year to date, BTC is down about 28%; most large altcoins have fallen even more, clustering in the 32% to 44% range. Ethereum is also running weak, hovering around $1,850. Overall market sentiment remains in the “extreme fear” zone, with the Fear & Greed Index at only 27–35.
1. Coldcard wallet incident: $114 million is gone
What has most gripped the market’s nerves in recent days is the ongoing escalation of a security vulnerability in the Coldcard hardware wallet.
The attacker has cumulatively stolen about 1,367 BTC; at current prices, the loss is approximately $89 million to $114 million, affecting thousands of addresses. Even more worrying is that the attacker has shifted from stealing funds from large wallets to scanning small addresses—meaning ordinary users could become targets too.
This hasn’t only caused direct losses; it has also dealt a blow to market confidence in “self-custody.” Some holders have even started moving assets from their personal wallets back to exchanges—fully contradicting the mainstream belief that “if it’s not your private key, it’s not your coin.”
2. Bitcoin governance crisis: support rate below 1%
More alarming than the price drop is a crisis at the Bitcoin protocol level.
On July 25, Bitcoin officially entered the final processing window under BIP-110, but the miner support rate for this proposal was only 0.89%. That’s far below the 55% support rate required to achieve the lock-in. If support rates remain low, a mandatory version switch could be initiated in August.
Core developers have identified “consensus mechanism cleanup,” “contract mechanism,” and “quantum technology response measures” as the next key tasks. This is another severe governance test for the Bitcoin community, following earlier controversies over hard forks.
3. Altcoins “resist declines,” but an “ETF wall” blocks a broad rally
Interestingly, amid this big Bitcoin drop, altcoins have held up relatively well.
On August 1, Bitcoin fell nearly 3% on geopolitical shock, briefly breaking below $63,000, but BNB dropped only 0.36%, XRP fell 1.8%, and Solana dropped about 2%. The altcoin season index instead rose to 62, hitting a recent high.
However, the market landscape in 2026 is very different from past years. Bitcoin spot ETFs have a total net asset value of $126k; spot Ethereum ETFs are over $10.5 billion. Together, they total nearly $90 billion. These institutional funds are locked firmly in mainstream assets and are unlikely to flow into altcoins. Even if an altcoin season truly arrives, it’s more likely to be structural opportunities in popular tracks like AI and RWA.
4. Hong Kong officially becomes Asia’s first stablecoin-licensing jurisdiction
Regulation also brings major news. On August 1, Hong Kong officially became Asia’s first jurisdiction to implement a licensing regime for stablecoins. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority requires that all platforms issuing stablecoins in Hong Kong operate under license; reserves must be 100% backed, with monthly audits and public disclosures.
In the short term, it’s only a matter of time before USDT and USDC become compliant in Hong Kong. Hong Kong may replicate Singapore’s path—moving from the gray zone to becoming a preferred destination for crypto.
5. Key price levels: $63,000 is the “watershed”
Crypto research firm 10x Research said that if Bitcoin’s August monthly close holds above $63,000, it would trigger multiple cycle indicators to flip to bullish signals, confirming that the bear market bottom is already in. Bitcoin’s July close failed to reach that threshold, and the current price is only one step away from confirming the signal.
Still, risks remain: if the 10-year US Treasury yield keeps climbing, it could force the Fed to restart rate hikes in September; and potential sell pressure on the supply side caused by miners transitioning into AI businesses—bringing about potential overhang from around 100k BTC—also adds pressure.
In August, the crypto market is facing it all: the Coldcard incident rattling confidence, Bitcoin facing governance tests, altcoins showing unusual moves, and Hong Kong regulation accelerating into reality—each one is a big deal.
$63,000 is the key watershed right now. Whether it can hold will determine the direction for this August and even the rest of the second half of the year.
Disclaimer: The above is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC
In August 2026, the crypto market is going through the most painful moment of this year so far.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a roughly $62,300–$63,200 range, down about 49.8% from this year’s initial all-time high above $126k. Year to date, BTC is down about 28%; most large altcoins have fallen even more, clustering in the 32% to 44% range. Ethereum is also running weak, hovering around $1,850. Overall market sentiment remains in the “extreme fear” zone, with the Fear & Greed Index at only 27–35.
1. Coldcard wallet incident: $114 million is gone
What has most gripped the market’s nerves in recent days is the ongoing escalation of a security vulnerability in the Coldcard hardware wallet.
The attacker has cumulatively stolen about 1,367 BTC; at current prices, the loss is approximately $89 million to $114 million, affecting thousands of addresses. Even more worrying is that the attacker has shifted from stealing funds from large wallets to scanning small addresses—meaning ordinary users could become targets too.
This hasn’t only caused direct losses; it has also dealt a blow to market confidence in “self-custody.” Some holders have even started moving assets from their personal wallets back to exchanges—fully contradicting the mainstream belief that “if it’s not your private key, it’s not your coin.”
2. Bitcoin governance crisis: support rate below 1%
More alarming than the price drop is a crisis at the Bitcoin protocol level.
On July 25, Bitcoin officially entered the final processing window under BIP-110, but the miner support rate for this proposal was only 0.89%. That’s far below the 55% support rate required to achieve the lock-in. If support rates remain low, a mandatory version switch could be initiated in August.
Core developers have identified “consensus mechanism cleanup,” “contract mechanism,” and “quantum technology response measures” as the next key tasks. This is another severe governance test for the Bitcoin community, following earlier controversies over hard forks.
3. Altcoins “resist declines,” but an “ETF wall” blocks a broad rally
Interestingly, amid this big Bitcoin drop, altcoins have held up relatively well.
On August 1, Bitcoin fell nearly 3% on geopolitical shock, briefly breaking below $63,000, but BNB dropped only 0.36%, XRP fell 1.8%, and Solana dropped about 2%. The altcoin season index instead rose to 62, hitting a recent high.
However, the market landscape in 2026 is very different from past years. Bitcoin spot ETFs have a total net asset value of $126k; spot Ethereum ETFs are over $10.5 billion. Together, they total nearly $90 billion. These institutional funds are locked firmly in mainstream assets and are unlikely to flow into altcoins. Even if an altcoin season truly arrives, it’s more likely to be structural opportunities in popular tracks like AI and RWA.
4. Hong Kong officially becomes Asia’s first stablecoin-licensing jurisdiction
Regulation also brings major news. On August 1, Hong Kong officially became Asia’s first jurisdiction to implement a licensing regime for stablecoins. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority requires that all platforms issuing stablecoins in Hong Kong operate under license; reserves must be 100% backed, with monthly audits and public disclosures.
In the short term, it’s only a matter of time before USDT and USDC become compliant in Hong Kong. Hong Kong may replicate Singapore’s path—moving from the gray zone to becoming a preferred destination for crypto.
5. Key price levels: $63,000 is the “watershed”
Crypto research firm 10x Research said that if Bitcoin’s August monthly close holds above $63,000, it would trigger multiple cycle indicators to flip to bullish signals, confirming that the bear market bottom is already in. Bitcoin’s July close failed to reach that threshold, and the current price is only one step away from confirming the signal.
Still, risks remain: if the 10-year US Treasury yield keeps climbing, it could force the Fed to restart rate hikes in September; and potential sell pressure on the supply side caused by miners transitioning into AI businesses—bringing about potential overhang from around 100k BTC—also adds pressure.
In August, the crypto market is facing it all: the Coldcard incident rattling confidence, Bitcoin facing governance tests, altcoins showing unusual moves, and Hong Kong regulation accelerating into reality—each one is a big deal.
$63,000 is the key watershed right now. Whether it can hold will determine the direction for this August and even the rest of the second half of the year.
Disclaimer: The above is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC
