Yang Guang bit | October 19 $BTC — Oil prices retreat and rate hike expectations cool, bringing the oversold rebound close to resistance
【Today's Strategy】
Entry timing: Enter short positions on a rebound into the 82500—82800 range
Stop-loss: Set the stop-loss for short positions above 83100
Staggered take-profit:
First target: 81500—81800
Second target: 80800—81000
【Key Takeaways】
BTC began an oversold rebound over the weekend from a low of 80621 and is currently trading around 82350, up nearly 1700 points from the low; on the 4-hour chart, price has moved above the short-term moving averages, but EMA30 (81939) and the dense moving-average zone overhead at 82500—82800 form key resistance. On the news front, Iran's foreign minister said the "7-day plan" remains on the negotiating table, raising expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen; international oil prices plunged in the short term, with WTI falling below $99, easing inflationary pressure at the margin; CME data show the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October has risen to 83.9%, cooling rate hike expectations; however, on-chain Bitcoin ETFs have seen nearly $910 million in net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with institutional funds still pulling out, casting doubt on the rebound's staying power. For the day, favor shorts at resistance and small, short-term longs at support; don't chase one-way moves, stay on top of the trend throughout, and a trend-driven crash and plunge will not occur. $BTC #比特币短线站上8.2万美元
【Today's Strategy】
Entry timing: Enter short positions on a rebound into the 82500—82800 range
Stop-loss: Set the stop-loss for short positions above 83100
Staggered take-profit:
First target: 81500—81800
Second target: 80800—81000
【Key Takeaways】
BTC began an oversold rebound over the weekend from a low of 80621 and is currently trading around 82350, up nearly 1700 points from the low; on the 4-hour chart, price has moved above the short-term moving averages, but EMA30 (81939) and the dense moving-average zone overhead at 82500—82800 form key resistance. On the news front, Iran's foreign minister said the "7-day plan" remains on the negotiating table, raising expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen; international oil prices plunged in the short term, with WTI falling below $99, easing inflationary pressure at the margin; CME data show the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October has risen to 83.9%, cooling rate hike expectations; however, on-chain Bitcoin ETFs have seen nearly $910 million in net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with institutional funds still pulling out, casting doubt on the rebound's staying power. For the day, favor shorts at resistance and small, short-term longs at support; don't chase one-way moves, stay on top of the trend throughout, and a trend-driven crash and plunge will not occur. $BTC #比特币短线站上8.2万美元
