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What Is Overfitting? Why Can More Fine-Tuned Parameters Make a Strategy More Fragile?
In cryptocurrency trading, some strategies show increasingly high historical returns and increasingly attractive backtest curves after repeated parameter adjustments. However, once they enter the real market, their performance may deteriorate rapidly. A common reason behind this is overfitting.
First, what is overfitting?
Overfitting occurs when a strategy adapts too closely to specific fluctuations and coincidental patterns in historical data, causing it to perform well in the past but lack the ability to ad
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Trenches
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What is trading volume? Why can changes in volume during a price rise help us assess whether a trend is sustainable?
In cryptocurrency trading, price tells us which direction the market is moving, while volume helps us understand the level of trading activity behind that move. Analyzing the two together is more informative than looking at price alone, but volume cannot directly predict future movements.
First, what is trading volume?
Trading volume refers to the quantity of assets or the value of transactions actually traded during a specific period. An increase in volume usually indicates hei
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#10月非农数据聚焦
Strong employment data does not always signal a rally; markets will focus on how these figures might influence the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, my stance is one of "cautious optimism." Rather than taking aggressive positions before the data is released, it would be wiser to observe the market's initial reaction and the movement in interest rates.
My NFP Strategy: Strong Employment or a Healthy Cooling-Off?
The ADP report for October showed that the U.S. private sector added 86,000 new jobs—a figure that exceeded economists'
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NVDA-3.03%
XAUUSD+1.78%
XBRUSD+0.56%
GT-2.41%
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Yesterday’s 11.5 ETH Long/Short Strategy Review (posted late)
[translate-ref-0]: $ETH
Yesterday morning, the price failed to break below the previous low and the 2200 support, so I chose to enter a long at the current price. The morning long entry was at 2240, with a take-profit target at 2440 for 200 points of upside.
The short setup was invalidated; the direction was wrong.
[Strategy Review]:
The long entry in the 2180–2200 range did not materialize; the fourth target at 2300 was reached.
The short strategy was invalidated by a strong one-way rally.
[Current Market]:
Last night, the price b
ETH-1.23%
BTC-0.65%
ZEC+1.29%
WCTC S9 Gate Square Carnival: Team Up, Share & Win a Share of 50,000 USDT + GT https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6559?ref=VLARBF1YAG&ref_type=132
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GT-2.41%
GM Legends
One day, we'll look back at these red days and remember how tough they were.
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#BrentCrudeFallsBelow100
The recent drop of Brent crude below the $100 mark is a significant development that reshapes the broader macro landscape. This move puts global demand and supply expectations back in focus, but it also intersects with another major market catalyst: the outcome of the US midterm elections, where Democrats secured a majority.
This political result is being interpreted by the markets as a stabilizing factor that reduces geopolitical risk premiums. With lower perceived geopolitical friction on the horizon, the market is pricing in fewer supply-side disruptions, which fur
BTC-0.67%
Returning User Rewards: Get 100 USDT on Return and Trade to Earn Up to 800 SUI https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6799?ref=VLARBF1YAG&ref_type=132
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SUI-1.05%
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$AXTI SHORT SETUP — SELLERS STILL IN CONTROL!
$AXTI is down 12%, and the chart continues to show bearish pressure after a sharp rejection from 54.24.
Entry: 46.10
SL: 47.30
TP1: 45.30
TP2: 44.45
TP3: 43.50
Final Target: 42.00
The recent bounce looks weak, with sellers maintaining control below 47.30. Another rejection could push the price back toward 44.45, with further downside possible if that support breaks.
Invalidation: A sustained move above 47.30 weakens the bearish setup.
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AXTI-7.44%
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BTC, ETH, GT, XRP, DOGE
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LIVE2,859
Crypto Market Updates
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BTC is currently at 80458, and ETH is at 2425.
A quick look at the news: the relevant election results have come in, which could affect the market in the short term. Next, we need to 🤔keep a close eye on major events such as US-Iran communications, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and developments from the US.
Now, looking at the charts:
On the 15-minute timeframe, after yesterday’s bearish news had run its course, buying support was strong, and the price rallied to around 2450 before starting to trade sideways.
There are two signals here: many short positions are trapped above, and the major pl
BTC-0.67%
Yesterday, Da Chao said pons at 0.19 was a once-in-a-century bottom. Today, it climbed as high as 0.2317, up more than 20% from the bottom.
After he said that, it didn't even come close to 0.19. It bottomed at 0.1953, and buyers scooped it up immediately.
Some say this is just a rebound. Da Chao's take is simple: a coin that's been falling for two months finally couldn't be pushed lower for the first time—that's a bottom forming.
Let's take another look at its fundamentals. It's the leading launchpad on Robinhood Chain, and most of the chain's meme coins come from it. All the tokens are circul
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PONS+4.32%
ETH Short-Squeeze Rebound: Primarily Liquidation-Driven, with Weak Follow-Through from Spot Funds
ETH’s intraday price volatility reached 6.89%. Total liquidations across the market over 24 hours were 209 million, of which short positions accounted for 126 million, or 60.33%, showing the market’s typical short-covering-driven characteristics.
Liquidations peaked between 23:00 and 00:00 on November 4, with the largest single liquidation nearing 38 million. Current liquidation volume is 1.9 times the 7-day average, putting short-term sentiment in an extreme range, but it is only 0.59 times the 3
ETH-1.23%
Gate ETF Golden Rewards is live for a limited time, offering exclusive XAUT rewards to Futures Points users, stock traders, and VIP5+ users. Reach cumulative ETF trading volume milestones to unlock higher rewards. Users eligible for multiple categories can combine rewards by completing the respective tasks. https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6874?ch=9340&ref=VLARBF1YAG&ref_type=132
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XAUT+0.30%
Trump Media just moved 4,259 $BTC (~$344M) to Crypto com 👀
That's about 30% of its 14,139 BTC stack, and noteholders can demand up to $1B in cash on Nov 30.
Selling... or just custody?
BTC-0.67%
Life itself is worth investing heavily in.
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From a chart analysis perspective, BTC has not broken out unless the daily candle body closes above the first resistance level at 81300; this is a rebound, not a trend reversal. The second resistance is 84100, and the third is 86666!! On the 4-hour timeframe, it remains within a downward correction channel. News may affect intraday price fluctuations, but it does not change the broader trend. Investing involves risks. Strictly manage position sizes, and set take-profit and stop-loss levels on every trade. Today's BTC trading strategy: short in the 80500-81500 range, stop-loss at 82500, take-pr
BTC-0.65%
Golden September and Silver October have come to a close, and a new window for market positioning has opened!

The market never moves according to anyone’s expectations. Standing firm amid its rises and falls takes more than luck: it takes a thorough understanding of market rhythms and unwavering trading discipline.

November is a fresh start. Next, I’ll break down strategies for short-term trading, swing positioning, medium- and long-term holdings, and selling high and buying low within a range, tailored to different capital sizes. I’ll forecast market direction in advance and provide clear
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BTC-0.65%
ETH-1.23%
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