Optimism unlocks $8.6 million soon, OP price falls below key moving average, is the downside risk increasing?

Optimism (OP) has recently been under continuous pressure, officially breaking below key moving averages, sparking market concerns about further declines. Data shows that as of now, OP is priced at $0.2678, down approximately 4% in the past 24 hours, with a nearly 18% decline over the past month. The price has been oscillating between $0.252 and $0.282, but the overall trend remains clearly weak, retracing nearly 94% from the 2024 high of $4.84.

From trading data, despite the spot trading volume of OP increasing by 32% to $62.1 million in a single day, the price has not rebounded accordingly, indicating that the market is dominated by short-term trading with insufficient confidence. According to CoinGlass derivatives data, contract trading volume surged by 53%, but open interest actually decreased, suggesting traders are actively reducing leverage and accelerating position closures, adopting a defensive stance in an environment with unclear direction.

Greater uncertainty stems from the upcoming token unlock. Tokenomist data shows that approximately 31.34 million OP tokens (worth about $8.6 million) will be unlocked on December 31, accounting for roughly 1.65% of the circulating supply. Currently, the circulating ratio of Optimism is only 44%. Against the backdrop of bearish market sentiment, the additional supply could further increase selling pressure, especially during cautious buying phases.

On the technical side, OP remains in a clear downtrend, trading below the 20-day moving average and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Although the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, it is still below 50, indicating that the bearish structure has not been broken; MACD is flat, reflecting weakening downward momentum rather than trend reversal. Short-term resistance is concentrated between $0.28 and $0.31, while key support levels are at $0.24 to $0.25. If the demand cannot absorb the unlock supply, OP’s price should remain alert to the risk of further weakening.