Altcoin season unlikely before Bitcoin’s new ATH: Wintermute

Markets are entering a stabilization phase, with altcoins ready for upward momentum once Bitcoin picks up steam, says Wintermute analyst Jasper De Maere.
Summary

• For altcoins to recover, Bitcoin likely needs to reach a new ATH
• Bitcoin has traded steadily in the $105k to $107K range, about 16% below its record levels
• Altcoins were up, but gains were uneven, showing a sign of low conviction

The crypto market has entered a stabilization phase. However, sentiment remains cautious, and not bullish, said De Maere, Wintermute’s OTC desk strategist. This means that a broader altcoin rally remains unlikely unless Bitcoin surges first.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of resilience, trading near the $105,000 to $107,000 range, despite ongoing ETF outflows. At that level, Bitcoin is 16% below its all-time high, suggesting that this consolidation may lead to a new rally.

“This looks less like stagnation and more like a turning phase,” De Maere wrote in his weekly report, published on November 10. “Structure’s cleaner, macro’s supportive, and the market feels ready to build again.”

Altcoins likely to wait for Bitcoin rally

Despite a positive change in the macro environment, crypto underperformed other major asset classes. Just four weeks ago, Bitcoin was the top-performing asset, up 10.2%, followed by Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins. Last week, the three asset classes were the worst performers. Weekly performance of crypto and traditional assets | Source: Wintermute

What is more, altcoin performance was uneven. On the week ending on November 2, large-cap tokens were up just 0.7%, while mid-cap tokens saw the best performance, up 14.8%.

By sector, DePIN saw the biggest gains, while layer 1 networks saw the worst. Gaming and memecoins also lagged behind other segments of the crypto industry. Weekly performance of several crypto asset classes, by size, sector, and geography | Source: Wintermute

According to Wintermute’s Jasper De Maere, a new altcoin rally is unlikely unless Bitcoin rises to new all-time highs.

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