#美军袭击伊朗BTC下挫 Three genuine thoughts on the US military's airstrikes on Iran
First: Don't look for “certain trading opportunities” in geopolitical conflicts
The US military airstruck two rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island; Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired missiles at US military bases in the early hours; WTI crude oil gapped up nearly 2%, Brent crude returned to $90; BTC fell 1.7% in one hour.
And then what? Who can tell me what comes next? Will Iran escalate its retaliation? Will the US expand its strikes? Will oil prices surge past $100? Seeing oil prices rise like this, will the Federal Reserve still dare to cut interest rates? Nobody knows. If you take a heavy position at this point, that's not investing—it's gambling.
Second: This drop is completely different from the one in June
June's drop was driven by “employment data + rate hike expectations”—the core variable was the Federal Reserve. You could look at the data, read the meeting minutes, and calculate the dot plot; at least there was an analytical framework.
What about this time? War + an energy shock + inflation expectations, all three layered together. The direction of oil prices does not depend on what the Fed Chair says, but on what happens the next second on the Middle Eastern battlefield. The predictability of the former and that of the latter are worlds apart.
What hurts even more is that gold hasn't risen either. Spot gold gapped down at the open. Even traditional safe-haven assets are falling—what makes you think BTC can remain unscathed in this environment? BTC's pricing power has long been controlled not by geopolitics, but by dollar liquidity. During wartime, it is a risk asset, not digital gold.
Third: If you are bullish in the long term, don't be scared away by volatility; if you trade short term, reduce your position and stay on the sidelines
If you invest spare money and have a holding period of more than 2 years, 77k and 85k are fundamentally no different. This volatility should not affect your position.
But if you are a short-term trader, the best move right now may be to reduce your position and stay on the sidelines. Why? Because the defining feature of geopolitical conflicts is that you never know what will happen the next second. Senior US military officials themselves have warned that continuing military operations against Iran “will be difficult to sustain.” What does this mean? It means the situation could turn at any time, or escalate at any time. Trading short term amid such uncertainty is like dancing in a minefield.$BTC
First: Don't look for “certain trading opportunities” in geopolitical conflicts
The US military airstruck two rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island; Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired missiles at US military bases in the early hours; WTI crude oil gapped up nearly 2%, Brent crude returned to $90; BTC fell 1.7% in one hour.
And then what? Who can tell me what comes next? Will Iran escalate its retaliation? Will the US expand its strikes? Will oil prices surge past $100? Seeing oil prices rise like this, will the Federal Reserve still dare to cut interest rates? Nobody knows. If you take a heavy position at this point, that's not investing—it's gambling.
Second: This drop is completely different from the one in June
June's drop was driven by “employment data + rate hike expectations”—the core variable was the Federal Reserve. You could look at the data, read the meeting minutes, and calculate the dot plot; at least there was an analytical framework.
What about this time? War + an energy shock + inflation expectations, all three layered together. The direction of oil prices does not depend on what the Fed Chair says, but on what happens the next second on the Middle Eastern battlefield. The predictability of the former and that of the latter are worlds apart.
What hurts even more is that gold hasn't risen either. Spot gold gapped down at the open. Even traditional safe-haven assets are falling—what makes you think BTC can remain unscathed in this environment? BTC's pricing power has long been controlled not by geopolitics, but by dollar liquidity. During wartime, it is a risk asset, not digital gold.
Third: If you are bullish in the long term, don't be scared away by volatility; if you trade short term, reduce your position and stay on the sidelines
If you invest spare money and have a holding period of more than 2 years, 77k and 85k are fundamentally no different. This volatility should not affect your position.
But if you are a short-term trader, the best move right now may be to reduce your position and stay on the sidelines. Why? Because the defining feature of geopolitical conflicts is that you never know what will happen the next second. Senior US military officials themselves have warned that continuing military operations against Iran “will be difficult to sustain.” What does this mean? It means the situation could turn at any time, or escalate at any time. Trading short term amid such uncertainty is like dancing in a minefield.$BTC
