#GoogleCloudSurges103%ButStockFalls
#美股财报周 #Gate广场万圣节 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀, 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗿𝘀: 𝗔𝗺𝗮𝘇𝗼𝗻, 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁'𝘀 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽
Amazon, Intel and SanDisk all report after the close on October 29, a day after Alphabet fell about 10% after hours despite doubling its cloud revenue and Microsoft rose about 4%. The lesson of this earnings season is that the market has already bet on strong numbers. The surprise comes from guidance, margins and cash flow. Here is the bar each company has to clear.
𝗔𝗺𝗮𝘇𝗼𝗻: 𝗔𝗪𝗦 𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴
Analysts expect revenue of about $202.2 billion, up 12.3% from $180.2 billion, and EPS of $1.96, only 0.5% above last year's $1.95. Revenue sits at the top of Amazon's $197 to $202 billion guidance, and operating income guidance is $22.5 to $26.5 billion. AWS is the main event, with revenue expected near $45.6 billion to $46.5 billion, a rise of roughly 38% to 41%, after $42.2 billion and 37% growth in Q2 at a 39.4% margin. Capex is guided to about $220 billion for 2026, raised from about $200 billion in July, after $54.2 billion in Q2. Reported retail growth will look slower because Prime Day moved into the prior quarter, costing about 4 points. Eleven analysts raised EPS estimates over the past 30 days against three cuts, and AWS backlog was $496 billion last quarter. Anthropic's IPO filing, which shows commitments of at least $110 billion to Amazon through 2036, also puts AWS demand in focus.
𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹: 𝗔 𝗟𝗼𝘄 𝗕𝗮𝗿 𝗪𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝘁
Intel guided Q3 revenue to $15.8 to $16.8 billion and adjusted EPS to $0.38. Consensus sits only slightly higher, at about $16.5 billion and $0.40, compared with $0.23 a year ago. Last quarter it guided revenue to $13.8 to $14.8 billion and adjusted EPS to $0.20, then delivered $16.1 billion and $0.42, about 9% above the top of its range. Management targets an adjusted gross margin near 42%, after 41.8% in Q2. Demand has exceeded supply, with shortages of substrates and memory expected to last into next year. The weak spot is Foundry, which lost about $2.1 billion in operating profit in Q2 on only $293 million of external revenue. The stock closed at $93.74 on October 27 and is up more than 150% this year, so the bar for sentiment is much higher than the bar for numbers.
𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗔 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗜𝗻, 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗜𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘁
SanDisk guided fiscal Q1 revenue to $10.3 to $10.8 billion, an 83% to 85% gross margin and EPS of $44 to $46. Consensus is about $10.64 billion and $46.2, at or above the top of that EPS range, against $2.31 billion in revenue and $1.22 in EPS a year ago, a gain of roughly 360% in revenue. Last quarter it beat with $8.97 billion in revenue, an 84.6% margin and $39.25 in EPS versus $34.37 expected, yet the stock fell 5% because guidance missed. Long-term agreements covering more than half of fiscal 2027 bits carry a minimum of $93.9 billion in contracted revenue, and TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter. The stock closed Wednesday at $1,404.77 after a 7.7% jump on SK Hynix's results, and it is still 40% below its June record of $2,354.39.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁'𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲
Options imply a move of about 6.6% to 7.7% for Amazon, about 9.4% for Intel and about 9% to 12% for SanDisk. For Intel that is a range of $84.91 to $102.57, and for SanDisk about $1,266 to $1,543 at the 9.9% estimate. Intel's last four reactions ranged from a 17% drop to a 24% gain, and Amazon rose 15.3% last quarter, well outside its implied move. These ranges measure size, not direction.
𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗮 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲𝘀?
No. Alphabet showed it this week: cloud revenue up 103%, free cash flow negative $9.07 billion, stock down about 10%. Microsoft showed the opposite, with Azure up 48%, positive free cash flow and a gain of about 4%. For these three, the equivalents are AWS growth against $220 billion of capex, Intel's margin against Foundry losses, and SanDisk's next-quarter guidance against an 84.6% margin that may already be the peak.
𝗠𝘆 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀
Intel is the most likely to beat its own numbers, given that it exceeded the top of guidance by about 9% last quarter and the consensus bar is only slightly above its guide. SanDisk is likely to beat as well, but its stock depends on whether the guide clears the market's hopes. Amazon has the widest range of outcomes, because an AWS number below 38% or a higher capex target could outweigh a revenue beat. These are opinions, not certainties.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗜𝘁
For Amazon: AWS growth, margin and any change to the $220 billion capex plan. For Intel: gross margin near 42%, fourth-quarter guidance and Foundry losses. For SanDisk: the gross margin against 83% to 85% and the revenue guide for the next quarter. The reaction on Friday will show which of these the market cared about most.
#Amazon #Intel
#美股财报周 #Gate广场万圣节 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀, 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗿𝘀: 𝗔𝗺𝗮𝘇𝗼𝗻, 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗧𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁'𝘀 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽
Amazon, Intel and SanDisk all report after the close on October 29, a day after Alphabet fell about 10% after hours despite doubling its cloud revenue and Microsoft rose about 4%. The lesson of this earnings season is that the market has already bet on strong numbers. The surprise comes from guidance, margins and cash flow. Here is the bar each company has to clear.
𝗔𝗺𝗮𝘇𝗼𝗻: 𝗔𝗪𝗦 𝗛𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴
Analysts expect revenue of about $202.2 billion, up 12.3% from $180.2 billion, and EPS of $1.96, only 0.5% above last year's $1.95. Revenue sits at the top of Amazon's $197 to $202 billion guidance, and operating income guidance is $22.5 to $26.5 billion. AWS is the main event, with revenue expected near $45.6 billion to $46.5 billion, a rise of roughly 38% to 41%, after $42.2 billion and 37% growth in Q2 at a 39.4% margin. Capex is guided to about $220 billion for 2026, raised from about $200 billion in July, after $54.2 billion in Q2. Reported retail growth will look slower because Prime Day moved into the prior quarter, costing about 4 points. Eleven analysts raised EPS estimates over the past 30 days against three cuts, and AWS backlog was $496 billion last quarter. Anthropic's IPO filing, which shows commitments of at least $110 billion to Amazon through 2036, also puts AWS demand in focus.
𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹: 𝗔 𝗟𝗼𝘄 𝗕𝗮𝗿 𝗪𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝘁
Intel guided Q3 revenue to $15.8 to $16.8 billion and adjusted EPS to $0.38. Consensus sits only slightly higher, at about $16.5 billion and $0.40, compared with $0.23 a year ago. Last quarter it guided revenue to $13.8 to $14.8 billion and adjusted EPS to $0.20, then delivered $16.1 billion and $0.42, about 9% above the top of its range. Management targets an adjusted gross margin near 42%, after 41.8% in Q2. Demand has exceeded supply, with shortages of substrates and memory expected to last into next year. The weak spot is Foundry, which lost about $2.1 billion in operating profit in Q2 on only $293 million of external revenue. The stock closed at $93.74 on October 27 and is up more than 150% this year, so the bar for sentiment is much higher than the bar for numbers.
𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗔 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗜𝗻, 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗜𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘁
SanDisk guided fiscal Q1 revenue to $10.3 to $10.8 billion, an 83% to 85% gross margin and EPS of $44 to $46. Consensus is about $10.64 billion and $46.2, at or above the top of that EPS range, against $2.31 billion in revenue and $1.22 in EPS a year ago, a gain of roughly 360% in revenue. Last quarter it beat with $8.97 billion in revenue, an 84.6% margin and $39.25 in EPS versus $34.37 expected, yet the stock fell 5% because guidance missed. Long-term agreements covering more than half of fiscal 2027 bits carry a minimum of $93.9 billion in contracted revenue, and TrendForce expects NAND contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter. The stock closed Wednesday at $1,404.77 after a 7.7% jump on SK Hynix's results, and it is still 40% below its June record of $2,354.39.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁'𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲
Options imply a move of about 6.6% to 7.7% for Amazon, about 9.4% for Intel and about 9% to 12% for SanDisk. For Intel that is a range of $84.91 to $102.57, and for SanDisk about $1,266 to $1,543 at the 9.9% estimate. Intel's last four reactions ranged from a 17% drop to a 24% gain, and Amazon rose 15.3% last quarter, well outside its implied move. These ranges measure size, not direction.
𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗮 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲𝘀?
No. Alphabet showed it this week: cloud revenue up 103%, free cash flow negative $9.07 billion, stock down about 10%. Microsoft showed the opposite, with Azure up 48%, positive free cash flow and a gain of about 4%. For these three, the equivalents are AWS growth against $220 billion of capex, Intel's margin against Foundry losses, and SanDisk's next-quarter guidance against an 84.6% margin that may already be the peak.
𝗠𝘆 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀
Intel is the most likely to beat its own numbers, given that it exceeded the top of guidance by about 9% last quarter and the consensus bar is only slightly above its guide. SanDisk is likely to beat as well, but its stock depends on whether the guide clears the market's hopes. Amazon has the widest range of outcomes, because an AWS number below 38% or a higher capex target could outweigh a revenue beat. These are opinions, not certainties.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗜𝘁
For Amazon: AWS growth, margin and any change to the $220 billion capex plan. For Intel: gross margin near 42%, fourth-quarter guidance and Foundry losses. For SanDisk: the gross margin against 83% to 85% and the revenue guide for the next quarter. The reaction on Friday will show which of these the market cared about most.
#Amazon #Intel
