When bearish news materializes, it becomes bullish—Trump’s win-ology. Looking ahead to October, the interest-rate path remains highly uncertain. According to the latest data, the probability of keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% is 50.2%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 49.8%. The two outcomes are almost evenly split, meaning another hike in October remains possible. In addition, there may be one more rate hike before year-end. $BTC $BTC ‌

The odds are now marginally in favour of another rate rise at next month’s Fed meeting.
However, a 50.9% probability reflects uncertainty, not conviction. Much can change between now and then.
If my thesis of a Q4 capitulation low for #BTC proves correct, I suspect the catalyst will be a geopolitical shock rather than monetary policy alone.

$BTC issued last night
BTC76340 took a short position, entering near the high, and successfully profited
ETH2420 took a short position, entering last night and falling to around 2366 at the low, successfully profiting

Some thoughts on solana:HcRLc9VDgjLeK154xDawfb1dmVJ98DoSqcwTHGqiDeJR:
Seems to be an incredibly strong memecoin at the moment.
It's been ranging 40% - 60% these last 10 days yet holdercount has increased by 25%. Holders have a strong incentive to hold as they get distributed tokens of zcash:native every hour.
I really like this idea as top whales have incentives to hold even through drawdowns but holder count going up means more accumalation.
Not really looking at the community side of things but from the charts perspective and the underlying narrative. It makes sense and looks good.
Not boug

$BTC BTC/USD 4H Technical Analysis: Correction or Breakout Setup?
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) remains confined within a well-defined descending channel on the
4-hour chart, extending the sequence of lower highs and lower lows that began after the
early-September peak near $82,000. Price action is currently stabilising near the middle
of the structure, suggesting a period of consolidation rather than a decisive directional
move.
Recent Bounce From Support
Bitcoin recently found support near the lower half of the channel and the lower
Bollinger Band around $74,700. The subsequent rebound has lifted price

⚠️ PERFECT STORM INDEX™: 88/100
Risk conditions intensified following the Fed’s hawkish rate increase.
🔴 Further tightening signalled
🔴 DXY at a seven-week high
🔴 Treasury yields near 5%
🔴 Brent above $105
🔴 Geopolitical and supply risks remain elevated
The PSI does not predict that a crash is certain. It shows that the environment remains exceptionally vulnerable to further shocks.
One number. Multiple market signals. Every trading day.
#PerfectStormIndex #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #FederalReserve

Daily check-in
I interviewed with several companies today
But does Chengdu really not have any decent companies?
Anyone here from Chengdu?
How did you find a good job?

Wasn't even eligible for the @RareFriendsNFT mint, then randomly saw a Rare Friends Generations NFT in my wallet. Got hyped for a second, then reality hit lol.

Every day is all about eating and drinking🍵

🔥 What’s worth talking about today? Gate Square’s trending topics are updated!
🏦 The Fed hikes rates by 25 bps for the first time in three years — what comes next for the market?
⚡ Volatility is picking up across the Arc / Solana ecosystems — opportunity or risk?
🚀 $ZEC is leading PayFi, while Solana meme coins are heating up again. Where could capital rotate next?
Got a view? Join the conversation 👇
Post with the trending topic and share your market take, positioning, or trading plan.
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$CHR CHRUSDT READY TO NEW EXPLODE!
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe; it has reached the lower boundary and is poised for a rebound. A retest of this boundary is expected, supporting some upward movement.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bearish trend, but an upward breakout is likely due to oversold conditions on the 1-hour chart.
There is initial support at 0.01360, acting as a preliminary support zone.
A key support zone (marked in green) exists at 0.01250; the price has bounced off this area multiple times, making it a strong support level

#ArcEcosystemAndMemeCoinsPlunge
#ArcEcosystemAndMemeCoinsPlunge
The crypto market is once again reminding investors that volatility is part of the journey. The recent sell-off across the Arc ecosystem and many meme coins has triggered sharp price declines, increased liquidations, and a noticeable shift in market sentiment. While meme coins can deliver explosive gains during bullish periods, they often experience the steepest corrections when liquidity dries up and traders begin reducing risk. �
SSRN +1
For traders, this is a time to stay disciplined rather than emotional. Watching key support

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Today's second income. Making money is hard, but the hope is great. I'm just one 1000x away from 1 million.

According to Whale Alert monitoring, USDC issuer USDC Treasury has just minted 250 million USDC on the Solana network, worth approximately $250.01 million.

The Fed turned out to be more “hawkish” at its September meeting than expected, forcing Goldman Sachs to promptly revise its forecasts—the rate-hike trajectory shifted from the previously anticipated “just one move” to a base case of consecutive rate hikes in September and October.
On September 16, the Fed unanimously voted to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. The meeting’s hawkish rhetoric exceeded the expectations of both the market and Goldman Sachs itself: 16 of the 18 Committee members expect at least one more rate hike this year, the median “dot p

Don’t rush to buy the dip—wait for the market to give you the answer
The 25 bp hike has already been delivered, but what the market is really trading is how many more 25 bp hikes there will be after this one. That is also why the dollar strengthened, Treasury yields rose, and U.S. stocks pulled back after the Federal Reserve announced the rate hike. Reuters reported that after this hike, short-term Treasury yields rose to a high not seen since mid-2024, as the market continued to digest expectations of further rate hikes.
For BTC, the consolidation around $75,000–$76,500 is essentially both bu