#我的七夕交易分享 U.S. Stock Market Outlook: Clear Sector Rotation Signals
Based on today’s market signals, the U.S. stock market is undergoing a clear phase of sector rotation—capital is gradually flowing from large-cap technology stocks and AI computing leaders, which have posted huge gains over the past two years, into second-tier AI infrastructure sectors such as memory, optical communications, and semiconductor equipment.
Three signals worth watching
The three major memory chip companies all broke out on increased volume simultaneously, suggesting that the industry cycle may turn earlier than expected; production expectations for 800G/1.6T in the optical communications sector are being realized, improving order visibility across the industry chain; technology giants have collectively pulled back, but to a limited extent, as the market is still digesting valuation pressure from the Q2 earnings season.
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq has been consolidating within the 26000–27000 range for more than three weeks. The short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, and 20-day) have converged, while the MACD is hovering near the zero axis, indicating that the index is technically approaching a directional breakout.
If the index can break above the 27000 mark on increased volume over the next several trading days, it may open up further upside; conversely, a break below the 26000 support level could trigger a larger-scale correction.
Key events to watch for the remainder of this week include Tuesday’s premarket July retail sales data, the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes on Wednesday, and initial jobless claims on Thursday.
The above data will directly affect the market’s assessment of the probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, thereby determining the duration and depth of this round of sector rotation. Federal funds futures pricing currently shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is approximately 65%, down from 72% one week ago.$NAS100
Based on today’s market signals, the U.S. stock market is undergoing a clear phase of sector rotation—capital is gradually flowing from large-cap technology stocks and AI computing leaders, which have posted huge gains over the past two years, into second-tier AI infrastructure sectors such as memory, optical communications, and semiconductor equipment.
Three signals worth watching
The three major memory chip companies all broke out on increased volume simultaneously, suggesting that the industry cycle may turn earlier than expected; production expectations for 800G/1.6T in the optical communications sector are being realized, improving order visibility across the industry chain; technology giants have collectively pulled back, but to a limited extent, as the market is still digesting valuation pressure from the Q2 earnings season.
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq has been consolidating within the 26000–27000 range for more than three weeks. The short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, and 20-day) have converged, while the MACD is hovering near the zero axis, indicating that the index is technically approaching a directional breakout.
If the index can break above the 27000 mark on increased volume over the next several trading days, it may open up further upside; conversely, a break below the 26000 support level could trigger a larger-scale correction.
Key events to watch for the remainder of this week include Tuesday’s premarket July retail sales data, the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes on Wednesday, and initial jobless claims on Thursday.
The above data will directly affect the market’s assessment of the probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, thereby determining the duration and depth of this round of sector rotation. Federal funds futures pricing currently shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is approximately 65%, down from 72% one week ago.$NAS100
