#广场预测世界杯赢40000U
All eight World Cup quarterfinalists have been determined, with European teams occupying six spots. Who is most likely to break through?
In the early morning of July 8, the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico saw the final Round of 16 match, with Switzerland facing Colombia. Neither side scored a valid goal in regular time, ending 0-0, and the match went into extra time. Both teams still couldn't break the deadlock in extra time, and ultimately, Switzerland won in a penalty shootout, securing the last spot in the quarterfinals.
Thus, the eight quarterfinalists for this World Cup have been fully determined. They are Morocco, France, Norway, England, Spain, Belgium, Argentina, and Switzerland. All three host nations were eliminated.
After the Round of 16, this World Cup will have a rest day, followed by the first quarterfinal match between France and Morocco, which will kick off at 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 10.
The other quarterfinal matchups are Spain vs. Belgium, Norway vs. England, and Argentina vs. Switzerland.
So, amid the fierce quarterfinal battles, who will ultimately lift the World Cup trophy? We might get a glimpse from the championship odds:
I. Overview of Championship Odds for the Eight Teams (Compiled from Major Institution Data)
First Tier (Odds Below 5.0, Championship Favorites)
Spain: Approximately 4.00–5.50 (slight variations across different institutions, official betting odds and international institutions give around 4.75)
France: Approximately 4.30–6.50 (official betting odds around 4.75, tied with Spain at the top)
Second Tier (Odds 5.0–9.0, Strong Contenders)
England: Approximately 5.00–7.50 (official betting odds around 5.45)
Argentina: Approximately 6.25–9.00 (official betting odds around 8.5, tied with Brazil)
Third Tier (Odds Above 10.0, Need Breakthroughs to Reach the Top)
Belgium: Approximately 34.00 (pre-tournament data, performance in knockout rounds may improve)
Norway: Approximately 26.00 (pre-tournament data, Haaland effect is significant)
Morocco: In the range of approximately 15.00–20.00 (pre-tournament data, performance in this tournament has exceeded expectations)
Switzerland: In the range of approximately 30.00–40.00 (pre-tournament data, confidence boosted after eliminating Colombia on penalties)
It should be noted that the above odds are based on pre-tournament data from major institutions. In the knockout stages, odds for each team will be dynamically adjusted based on match results. Currently, due to their advancement, the actual real-time odds for Switzerland and Morocco should be lower than the pre-tournament data.
II. Championship Probability Judgments from Authoritative Models
Combining the Opta supercomputer and Goldman Sachs' 50k Monte Carlo simulations, the championship probabilities for the eight teams are roughly as follows:
Spain: Approximately 16%–26% (Biggest Favorite)
The data from the two models show significant differences—Opta gives 16.1%, while Goldman Sachs gives as high as 25.7%, but the consensus is that Spain is far ahead. This team has kept consecutive clean sheets in this World Cup so far, with goalkeeper Simon's unbeaten streak exceeding 600 minutes. The midfield duo of Rodri and Olmo have a passing success rate of 92%, with almost no weaknesses in attack or defense. Goldman Sachs' model specifically points out that Spain's Elo rating is 84 points higher than France and 52 points higher than Argentina, making it one of the most dominant World Cup participants in the last two decades.
France: Approximately 13%–19% (One of the Absolute Top Two)
Opta gives 13%, Goldman Sachs gives 18.9%. The forward line led by Mbappé has unparalleled talent globally, and the bench depth is enviable. However, Goldman Sachs' model also highlights a hidden danger: France may face Spain in the semifinals, and this "group of death" half will significantly compress their path to the title. If they can get past Spain, France's championship credentials will instantly peak.
Argentina: Approximately 10%–14% (The Depth of the Defending Champion)
Opta gives 10.4%, Goldman Sachs gives 14.3%. Messi's last dance at age 39 is the biggest highlight and the biggest variable. Goldman Sachs' model considers Argentina to have the "best draw" among the top teams—they may not face Spain until the final, which is the most ideal advancement route among all the big teams. However, the "defending champion curse" (no team has successfully defended the title since 1978) always hangs over them like the Sword of Damocles.
England: Approximately 5%–11% (Overrated or Underrated?)
Opta gives 11.2%, ranking third, while Goldman Sachs gives only 5%, ranking sixth. This huge discrepancy stems from England's historical "choking tradition" in World Cups—despite high Elo ratings, their tournament performances always fall short of expectations. Additionally, Goldman Sachs' model incorporates the geographical disadvantage of high-altitude matches in Mexico City, further lowering England's expectations. The dual-engine drive of Kane and Bellingham is their biggest confidence booster.
Norway: Approximately 3%–5% (The Biggest Dark Horse Variable)
Pre-tournament odds were around 26.00, with an implied probability of less than 4%. Haaland's presence makes Norway the most unignorable "X factor" in this World Cup. If Haaland continues to explode in the knockout stages, Norway is fully capable of causing an upset. However, the overall squad depth still has a clear gap compared to traditional giants, and how far they can go depends on how long Haaland's individual form can last.
Morocco: Approximately 2%–4% (Can the North African Light Continue to Shine?)
Pre-tournament Opta gave 1.9%, and in this tournament they have shown terrifying dominance with a 3-0 victory over Canada. Unahi scored a brace, and Rahimi scored in stoppage time. This team's defensive resilience and counter-attacking efficiency are top-notch in this World Cup. However, as the knockout stages progress, opponents will become more targeted, and Morocco's relatively limited attacking options may become a bottleneck.
Belgium: Approximately 2%–3% (The Last Swan Song of the Golden Generation)
Pre-tournament odds were around 34.00, Opta gives 2.4%. De Bruyne's playing time has been significantly reduced, and the new core Openda has only a 44% duel success rate. The team is in the painful transition period between generations. Reaching the quarterfinals is already commendable, and winning the title would require consecutive upsets.
Switzerland: Approximately 1%–2% (How Far Can Iron Defense Go?)
Pre-tournament odds were around 30.00–40.00, Opta gives below 2%. Switzerland's core competitiveness this time is "indestructibility"—the penalty shootout victory over Colombia proved their mental toughness in stalemates. However, the lack of a finisher in attack is a fatal weakness. To win the title, they must execute "defense and counterattack" to perfection in every match, with extremely low error tolerance.
All eight World Cup quarterfinalists have been determined, with European teams occupying six spots. Who is most likely to break through?
In the early morning of July 8, the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico saw the final Round of 16 match, with Switzerland facing Colombia. Neither side scored a valid goal in regular time, ending 0-0, and the match went into extra time. Both teams still couldn't break the deadlock in extra time, and ultimately, Switzerland won in a penalty shootout, securing the last spot in the quarterfinals.
Thus, the eight quarterfinalists for this World Cup have been fully determined. They are Morocco, France, Norway, England, Spain, Belgium, Argentina, and Switzerland. All three host nations were eliminated.
After the Round of 16, this World Cup will have a rest day, followed by the first quarterfinal match between France and Morocco, which will kick off at 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 10.
The other quarterfinal matchups are Spain vs. Belgium, Norway vs. England, and Argentina vs. Switzerland.
So, amid the fierce quarterfinal battles, who will ultimately lift the World Cup trophy? We might get a glimpse from the championship odds:
I. Overview of Championship Odds for the Eight Teams (Compiled from Major Institution Data)
First Tier (Odds Below 5.0, Championship Favorites)
Spain: Approximately 4.00–5.50 (slight variations across different institutions, official betting odds and international institutions give around 4.75)
France: Approximately 4.30–6.50 (official betting odds around 4.75, tied with Spain at the top)
Second Tier (Odds 5.0–9.0, Strong Contenders)
England: Approximately 5.00–7.50 (official betting odds around 5.45)
Argentina: Approximately 6.25–9.00 (official betting odds around 8.5, tied with Brazil)
Third Tier (Odds Above 10.0, Need Breakthroughs to Reach the Top)
Belgium: Approximately 34.00 (pre-tournament data, performance in knockout rounds may improve)
Norway: Approximately 26.00 (pre-tournament data, Haaland effect is significant)
Morocco: In the range of approximately 15.00–20.00 (pre-tournament data, performance in this tournament has exceeded expectations)
Switzerland: In the range of approximately 30.00–40.00 (pre-tournament data, confidence boosted after eliminating Colombia on penalties)
It should be noted that the above odds are based on pre-tournament data from major institutions. In the knockout stages, odds for each team will be dynamically adjusted based on match results. Currently, due to their advancement, the actual real-time odds for Switzerland and Morocco should be lower than the pre-tournament data.
II. Championship Probability Judgments from Authoritative Models
Combining the Opta supercomputer and Goldman Sachs' 50k Monte Carlo simulations, the championship probabilities for the eight teams are roughly as follows:
Spain: Approximately 16%–26% (Biggest Favorite)
The data from the two models show significant differences—Opta gives 16.1%, while Goldman Sachs gives as high as 25.7%, but the consensus is that Spain is far ahead. This team has kept consecutive clean sheets in this World Cup so far, with goalkeeper Simon's unbeaten streak exceeding 600 minutes. The midfield duo of Rodri and Olmo have a passing success rate of 92%, with almost no weaknesses in attack or defense. Goldman Sachs' model specifically points out that Spain's Elo rating is 84 points higher than France and 52 points higher than Argentina, making it one of the most dominant World Cup participants in the last two decades.
France: Approximately 13%–19% (One of the Absolute Top Two)
Opta gives 13%, Goldman Sachs gives 18.9%. The forward line led by Mbappé has unparalleled talent globally, and the bench depth is enviable. However, Goldman Sachs' model also highlights a hidden danger: France may face Spain in the semifinals, and this "group of death" half will significantly compress their path to the title. If they can get past Spain, France's championship credentials will instantly peak.
Argentina: Approximately 10%–14% (The Depth of the Defending Champion)
Opta gives 10.4%, Goldman Sachs gives 14.3%. Messi's last dance at age 39 is the biggest highlight and the biggest variable. Goldman Sachs' model considers Argentina to have the "best draw" among the top teams—they may not face Spain until the final, which is the most ideal advancement route among all the big teams. However, the "defending champion curse" (no team has successfully defended the title since 1978) always hangs over them like the Sword of Damocles.
England: Approximately 5%–11% (Overrated or Underrated?)
Opta gives 11.2%, ranking third, while Goldman Sachs gives only 5%, ranking sixth. This huge discrepancy stems from England's historical "choking tradition" in World Cups—despite high Elo ratings, their tournament performances always fall short of expectations. Additionally, Goldman Sachs' model incorporates the geographical disadvantage of high-altitude matches in Mexico City, further lowering England's expectations. The dual-engine drive of Kane and Bellingham is their biggest confidence booster.
Norway: Approximately 3%–5% (The Biggest Dark Horse Variable)
Pre-tournament odds were around 26.00, with an implied probability of less than 4%. Haaland's presence makes Norway the most unignorable "X factor" in this World Cup. If Haaland continues to explode in the knockout stages, Norway is fully capable of causing an upset. However, the overall squad depth still has a clear gap compared to traditional giants, and how far they can go depends on how long Haaland's individual form can last.
Morocco: Approximately 2%–4% (Can the North African Light Continue to Shine?)
Pre-tournament Opta gave 1.9%, and in this tournament they have shown terrifying dominance with a 3-0 victory over Canada. Unahi scored a brace, and Rahimi scored in stoppage time. This team's defensive resilience and counter-attacking efficiency are top-notch in this World Cup. However, as the knockout stages progress, opponents will become more targeted, and Morocco's relatively limited attacking options may become a bottleneck.
Belgium: Approximately 2%–3% (The Last Swan Song of the Golden Generation)
Pre-tournament odds were around 34.00, Opta gives 2.4%. De Bruyne's playing time has been significantly reduced, and the new core Openda has only a 44% duel success rate. The team is in the painful transition period between generations. Reaching the quarterfinals is already commendable, and winning the title would require consecutive upsets.
Switzerland: Approximately 1%–2% (How Far Can Iron Defense Go?)
Pre-tournament odds were around 30.00–40.00, Opta gives below 2%. Switzerland's core competitiveness this time is "indestructibility"—the penalty shootout victory over Colombia proved their mental toughness in stalemates. However, the lack of a finisher in attack is a fatal weakness. To win the title, they must execute "defense and counterattack" to perfection in every match, with extremely low error tolerance.
