What exactly is the probability of a rate hike in October? I looked at three data sources and found a huge discrepancy
Before Warsh's speech, I spent an hour comparing how different data sources priced the probability of a rate hike in October, and found the differences were unbelievably large.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October jumped from around 21% before the CPI release to 43.7%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged fell from 78.3% to 56.3%. Another source shows that the market sees the probability of a rate hike this month as close to

$GTC These numbers look suspicious. Up 28% in 24 hours, with $134.7M in trading volume—note, this wasn’t a slow grind upward: it shot straight from a low of 0.2084 to 0.2832, a 36% range, a classic price-and-volume explosion. I’ve watched Gate’s order books for three years, and GTC moves like this only happen a few times a year.
Let’s break down three possibilities. First, the project team or a market maker may have been scooping up tokens at low prices. Orders around 0.21 were eaten up in one go, then the price was pushed higher to create FOMO, with trading volume swelling to the $130 million

Good Morning Friends
Can I Get GM Back?🔙💗✨

#GateBTCAndETHFuturesVolumeRanksTop3 🚀🏆 Gate BTC & ETH Futures Volume Ranks in the Top 3! 📈🔥
Gate is making waves in the crypto trading world! 🌍 Bitcoin and Ethereum futures trading volume ranking in the Top 3 highlights the growing attention these digital assets continue to attract. 💎⚡
📊 BTC + ETH = Trading Power!
More market activity, more opportunities to analyze trends, and more excitement for the crypto community!
Are you watching BTC or ETH for your next move? 👀
Trade smart, stay informed, and always manage your risk. 🚀

🚨Many people get burned trading multi-leg contract arbitrage: they think hedging protects their principal, but a market move sends Δ off course and leads to a huge loss. These Greek-letter rebalancing rules are for advanced traders.
🥷 Contract Trading Tips · Multi-Leg Dynamic Rebalancing and Greek-Letter Hedging
📌 Single-leg thinking can't manage multi-leg portfolios (dual-currency hedging/triangular arbitrage/cross-expiry trades); use Greek letters to manage risk
🏛 I. The four Greek letters
• Δ: Directional risk; how much the portfolio changes when the price moves one increment
• Γ: The s

A note I found on my girlfriend’s phone. Can anyone who knows what this means help explain it?

Look at what I said early this morning, guys: the rebound to around 19 had little liquidity, and with the bearish CPI news and delayed weekend rebalancing, I felt a dump was coming, so I closed my long immediately. Very satisfied with that move 🤣 But I didn’t open any positions afterward; you have to stay flat when you go to sleep 😂

Cock Defense Battle🤒
Can we make it to the other shore this time?
I've always been mocked by group members using this image🤣

#WarshIMFSpeech 🌍📢 Warsh’s IMF Speech: Global Markets on Alert! 📊
All eyes are on Kevin Warsh as investors look for insights into inflation, interest rates, global economic growth, and financial stability. 🏦📈
His remarks could influence market sentiment across stocks, bonds, and crypto as traders assess the potential impact on the global economy. ₿💹
👀 The big question: Will the latest signals bring optimism to the markets or create fresh uncertainty?
Stay informed, follow the economic trends, and make decisions based on research—not emotions! 🚀

In China, any highly profitable venture is covered by the Criminal Law.

$ETH Keep shorting! The daily chart is unlikely to hold 2400 much longer! A break below is only a matter of time! Straight dump on Monday! Be bold and short! Target 2340. If you’re not in a position, short at market! Welcome aboard!

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美国9月PPI数据公布 #PPI前瞻 Inflation Data Relay: PPI Arrives, Full Analysis of Market Direction
I. Core Market Background
The release of the U.S. September CPI data immediately exceeded broad market expectations, with inflation stickiness far surpassing prior market pricing and instantly resetting the pricing logic for global major asset classes. Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. September PPI data will be officially released. As a core leading indicator on the production side of the inflation chain, it will directly verify the persistence of this round of inflation and become the market’s most critical new

🚨 ₿ BITCOIN AT A CRITICAL LEVEL! 🔥 | BUYERS VS SELLERS 🐂🐻
The crypto market is at a crucial turning point! 📊⚡
Bitcoin traders are watching key support and resistance levels closely. Will buyers step in and push BTC higher, or will sellers take control and trigger another correction? 👀
🟢 🐂 BULLISH SCENARIO
If buyers defend support and BTC breaks above resistance with strong volume, a recovery could gain momentum. 📈
🔴 🐻 BEARISH SCENARIO
If support breaks and selling pressure increases, BTC could face another downside move. 📉
🎯 HOT TRADER'S MARKET WATCH
Watch price action, trading vo

Fun fact:
Good U.S. stocks are no worse than crypto altcoins.
It’s Sunday, for crying out loud—
why are US stock contracts all getting wicked down at once?
What black swan is coming next week?
Whatever, I’m not worrying about it. I’m buying the dip first!
At least U.S. stocks can bounce back—they won’t go to zero,
right? 🫣

#BitcoinTops$82K #ShareWeekly
Bitcoin has spent the past week caught between two forces: a stubborn inflation picture and a Federal Reserve that is not yet ready to say it is finished. The latest data has pushed BTC back toward the lower part of its recent range, and the reaction to the inflation reports and Kevin Warsh's comments at the IMF meeting in Bangkok tells us a lot about where the market's mind is right now. My view is that this is not a market that has broken down, but it is a market that is asking for confirmation before it commits to the next big move. Let me explain why I think