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💬 This week’s hot topic
The September meeting minutes sent a hawkish signal, and a rate hike later this year has not been ruled out. However, market pricing for an October rate hike has fallen below 20%, while the CPI release on October 14 may become the next key variable. Do you think there will be another rate hike in October?
💡 This week’s discussion
1️⃣ If CPI exceeds expectations, how will expectations for an October rate hike change?
2️⃣ How will Federal Reserve policy expectations affect crypto and U.S. stocks?
3️⃣ Have current market expectations already been fully reflected in asset prices?
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#BTCPullsBackTo81000 Yo, so check it. Bitcoin slid under $82K for the first time in three weeks, and nah, it ain't one thing that did it. Three things hit at once, straight up.
First off, the Fed. Them September minutes dropped October 7, and all nineteen of 'em backed that quarter-point hike to 3.75–4.00%. Most said yeah, another one by year-end probably makes sense. But here's the thing — the market ain't buying it for October. Odds sitting at like 17% for October, but December? Around 70%. And that matters, 'cause when rates stay high, holding stuff that don't pay you nothing gets expensive. 10-year yield hanging near 5.3%, 30-year near 5.67%. That's decades-high type energy.
Second thing — Iran. Word is the White House told the Pentagon to get strike options ready, but nothing popping off before the midterms. Strait of Hormuz still a mess. Brent at $101.53, WTI at $89.39. Expensive oil means inflation ain't going nowhere, and that keeps the Fed chilling on the sidelines.
Third thing, and this the one that really hurt — leverage. Around $709 to $769 million in positions got liquidated in 24 hours. Longs took $647 to $685 million of that. Bitcoin longs alone, $172 million. Roughly 140,000 accounts got smoked. Open interest dropped 3.27% down to about $52.57 billion. That ain't people changing their minds — that's forced selling, plain and simple.
Institutional money? Mixed bag. US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $118.86 million last session, total assets near $110.68 billion. But Ether ETFs? Lost $202 million same day. Them two ain't moving together no more.
Supply side — government wallets moved 12,267 BTC, 'bout $1.01 billion, to fresh addresses. No exchange deposit, so looks more like reshuffling than dumping.
Chart-wise, Bitcoin ran from $83,299 down to $80,397 before settling near $82,063. The $80,500 to $81,500 zone? That's where last month's highs sat, and that's what everybody watching. Hold there, we cool. Break it, and now we asking if the forced selling is done.
Next real test? October CPI and PPI. That's gonna tell us if inflation really cooling or if this pressure still building.
This ain't investment advice, just keeping it real.
$BTC ‌