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Article
What Is Overfitting? Why Can More Finely Tuned Parameters Make a Strategy More Fragile?
In cryptocurrency trading, some strategies show increasingly high historical returns and increasingly attractive backtest curves after repeated parameter adjustments. However, once they enter live markets, their performance can quickly deteriorate. A common reason behind this is overfitting.
First, what is overfitting?
Overfitting occurs when a strategy adapts too closely to specific fluctuations and chance patterns in historical data, leading it to perform well in the past but lack the ability to adapt to
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🔹Chip Stocks Are Falling, but Demand Hasnt Weakened? With Democratic Regulatory Expectations Shakin
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LIVE3,391
Trenches
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Use a small investment to pursue big gains, and join my livestream at 21:00 tonight
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  • 3
Been using this tool I built to find what's outperforming and underperforming bitcoin:native in real time
15m, 1h, 4h strength/weakness vs BTC + relative volume
This is how I find which alts I want to long/short
As always, free to use (no login or anything else required)
All feedback welcome
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BTC-0.67%
Sometimes it really is just a matter of a moment.$BTC ‌
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BTC-0.65%
Everyone thought this was just an ordinary cold snap, but only I was secretly buying supplies to build a safe house!
$PUMP is hanging around $0.0043 tonight, up a couple percent on the week after that dip near $0.0039.
Meanwhile @Pumpfun still burned about 109M tokens yesterday. Quiet candle, busy burn. You watching the chart or the buybacks? #Solana
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PUMP-1.06%
SOL-0.77%
#晒出我的持仓收益
The market's moving~ Spot isn't doing anything~ Let's trade some futures~ Make a little to cover the fees~ Then see if we can make enough for a meal! The overall market is tough~ Anything we can earn is good
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  • 2
What Is the Sharpe Ratio? How Can You Measure Whether a Trading Strategy’s Returns Are Worth the Risk?
In cryptocurrency trading, a high rate of return does not necessarily mean a strategy is good. If a strategy generates high returns but comes with sharp volatility and large drawdowns, we need to further assess whether those returns are worth the corresponding risk. The Sharpe ratio is one tool that can help answer this question.
First, what is the Sharpe ratio?
The Sharpe ratio measures the excess return earned by a portfolio or trading strategy per unit of volatility risk. Generally, the hi
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What should a trading journal record to truly help improve your trading performance?
In cryptocurrency trading, many people focus on daily profits and losses but rarely carefully record why they entered or exited a trade, or what went wrong during execution. Without systematic records, traders are prone to repeating mistakes and find it difficult to determine whether a strategy actually works.
First, record the basic information for every trade. This includes the asset, direction, entry price, exit price, time, position size, and leverage. These data can help you reconstruct the trade rather t
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What Is Maximum Drawdown? Why Can an Account That Once Earned a Lot Still Face Huge Risks?
In cryptocurrency trading, looking only at how much an account ultimately earned can make it easy to overlook the risks it experienced along the way. Even an account that once generated very high returns may have gone through a severe drawdown and may even struggle to recover because of poor money management. Maximum drawdown is an important metric for measuring this risk.
First, what is maximum drawdown?
Maximum drawdown is the largest percentage decline in an account’s net asset value from a peak to a
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$XCRCL Currently at 75.4, 24H +0.13% (72.79–78.2). 1H is weak: RSI 27.27, with the current price below the 1H EMA20 at 75.64; 4H is strong: RSI 59.48, with the current price above the 4H EMA20 at 74.97. The 1H volume ratio is 0.0012, indicating very low participation. If price holds above the 78.2 resistance level, watch for continuation; if it breaks below the 72.79 support level, the short-term outlook may weaken. In the next review, check whether price can hold above 78.2 and recover after losing 72.79; the volume ratio is 0.0012x, so a break beyond these levels needs confirmation from part
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afternoon updates
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LIVE2,016
Golden September and Silver October have come to a close; November is a fresh start.
Markets change by the hour, and prices rise and fall. Staying steady through volatility has never depended on luck, but on accurately gauging market rhythm and maintaining consistent execution discipline.
This month, I’ll break down strategies for short-term trading, swing positioning, medium- and long-term holdings, and range orders for different capital sizes. I’ll assess the direction in advance and provide clear entry and exit levels, so every trade has a disciplined plan. $BTC
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BTC-0.65%
11.5
BTC has risen nearly 6,000 this round. I imagine quite a few people got caught in losing positions. I’ve been calling for longs at 76,500 for days—do you still want to short?
Being stuck in a losing position isn’t scary; what’s scary is not knowing how high it could go. It’s been moving sideways around 80k without breaking below it. Honestly, the bulls are pretty strong this time. If you’re not too deep in the hole, let’s fight back!!!$BTC $ETH #BTC重返8万
FyPaymentMadeEasy
11.5
BTC retested 75600 yesterday to induce shorts
Staged a “Big V Tianlong” reversal, shooting straight up to 81000
Took out both longs and shorts, catching shorts at 76000 and longs at 80000
What’s the outlook for BTC today?
On the 4-hour chart, it tested the previous high of 82000 but failed to break through. Still, it’s holding firmly above 80000, and the pullback hasn’t been very strong. Bulls have the upper hand, so the strategy remains to buy dips
Go long at 78300–78800
Targets: 82000/83000
I’ve been telling everyone to enter longs at 76500, and now the results are clear. The bullish call and long execution have played out $BTC $ETH #BTC重返8万
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BTC-0.65%
ETH-1.23%
I'm a student!
Give me 200 off.
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Machi Big Brother is making a killing again!
He’s not only going long but also adding to his position, using 25x leverage to build from over 2,000 contracts to nearly 6,700. His latest average entry price is 2366, and his unrealized profit has surged past $460k, but his liquidation price has also been pushed up to 2391.
Big Brother is charging ahead with full confidence, but I’m actually not very bullish on this move in the short term. I recommend positioning for shorts around 2450.
The reasoning is simple:
This rebound after the election results came in looks more like a short squeeze followi
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ETH-1.23%
What Is Trade Expectancy? Why Does It Reflect a Strategy’s Long-Term Profitability Better Than Win Rate Alone?
In cryptocurrency trading, a high win rate does not necessarily mean you’ll make money, and a low win rate does not necessarily mean you’ll lose money. What really matters is how much profit or loss each trade generates on average when you keep trading by the same set of rules. That is the core meaning of trade expectancy.
First, what is trade expectancy?
Trade expectancy (EV) is a metric that combines win rate, average profit, and average loss to estimate the long-term average outcom
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Returning User Rewards: Get 100 USDT on Return and Trade to Earn Up to 800 SUI https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6799?ref=VLARBF1YAG&ref_type=132
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SUI-1.05%
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