#美股财报季 #Gate广场万圣节 Tesla: Earnings beat expectations, yet the stock closed lower—is this an unjustified selloff?
This isn’t an earnings collapse; the market is repricing the “cost of the transition period.”
Break down the numbers, and it’s really a case of “good earnings, bad stock performance.”
- Revenue was $28 billion, flat YoY; net income was $787 million, down 43%—the money wasn’t lost, it was eaten up by R&D: R&D was $2.76 billion (+69%), and operating expenses rose 39% overall.
​- But gross margins are rising: automotive gross margin excluding credits was 18.1% (16.7% expected), energy storage gross margin soared to 33.1%, and Megapack capacity for 2027 is basically sold out.
​- Free cash flow was +$1.5 billion (market expectation: -$4.4 billion), and cash stood at $45.4 billion—plenty of cushion.
The truly valuable change is in the “revenue mix”:
- FSD paid subscribers reached 1.74 million (+67%); 75% of new vehicles in North America are optioned with FSD—the car-selling business is turning into a subscription business;
​- The Austin Cybercab fleet has logged nearly 2 million miles of unsupervised driving, an 8x increase in one quarter, with a launch in Dallas next month.
Why did the stock fall?
There’s only one reason: capex was cut from $25 billion to $20 billion. The market interpreted this as “pushing back the profitability timelines for Robotaxi/Optimus.” This isn’t a cut to the vision, but a cut to the pace.
Risks: BYD’s all-electric vehicle sales led by 300,000+ in the first three quarters, and Chinese automakers have overtaken Tesla in gross margin; Musk himself said Optimus mass production is “at least another year away”; Robotaxi expansion is held up by regulatory approvals.
Watch three near-term catalysts—the pace of launches in new cities like Dallas, whether net FSD subscription additions can continue, and whether Q4 cash flow stays positive.
The valuation already prices in the next ten years (Morgan Stanley’s price target is $410), making this a high-volatility transition stock that “uses the present to fund the future”—suited to tracking and validating, not going all-in on the story. #每周来晒

#Gate广场万圣节 October 11: How I Survived
After 3/12 and 5/19, crypto had another day to remember: October 11 last year.
That night, BTC had just hit a new all-time high of $126k this week. I was holding a 50x long position, thinking I’d hold it for one more night and then take profit. Then a message hit in the early hours: tariffs were back. A post went up at 20:50, and within an hour, Bitcoin plunged straight from $120k to $105k. The entire market saw $19.3 billion in liquidations, 1.66 million people were forcibly liquidated, and even USDe depegged to 0.62.
My position was breached around $110k. My hands moved faster than my brain, and I clicked close—losing less is still a win. The wailing in the group chat went on until dawn: some people lost three years’ worth of profits in one night, while others said they didn’t even get a chance to close their positions (some exchanges even went down at the time).
After that night, I did one thing: I set my leverage to no more than 10x.
Halloween taught us to dress up as ghosts; October 11 taught me something else—leverage is crypto’s ghost. You don’t see it most of the time, but when the market moves, it comes out in force. Staying alive is what matters most.