#每周来晒 #广场交易达人 Why am I going long on Bitcoin at this level?
1. Technical factors: 76,000 hasn’t been breached, so I’m still bullish. I previously shared in an article that 76,500 is an important bull-bear dividing line for Bitcoin. Allowing for the possibility of a wick, we can move this support down to around 76,000. Until this level is breached, Bitcoin’s five-wave upward structure on the daily chart remains intact, and the plan is still to go long on a pullback.
2. The risk-reward ratio is attractive. As mentioned above, I plan to set my stop-loss at 75,990, with take-profit targets at 80,000/82,500/84,000. The risk-reward ratio is better than 1:3, making this a worthwhile trade.
3. Macro factors: Midterm election results are about to come in, and bad news being fully priced in can be good news. The U.S. midterm elections entered the voting period yesterday, and some results will be announced today. The market has already priced in the possibility of a Republican defeat. If Republicans win unexpectedly, that would naturally be very positive for crypto. If they lose, we could also see a short-term situation where the bad news is fully priced in. In addition, the oft-cited, somewhat superstitious pattern of markets rising after all 13 previous midterm elections could prompt a major rebound in the Nasdaq, which could also lift Bitcoin.
4. Why go long at 77,100?
First, 76,300–77,000 is a high-volume trading zone in this downturn. Yesterday, the price hit a low of 76,305, and today it moved back above 77,000, showing that buyers are stepping in around this area. A round-number level combined with the previous low is the kind of setup most likely to form a short-term bottom.
Second, sentiment has reached an extreme. Yesterday’s break below 77,000 was triggered by the theft of $6.3 billion from Bn, along with a 2.86% one-day drop in the Nasdaq. This kind of “negative news piling up alongside panic selling” is usually a sign of a short-term bottom—not because the price can’t fall further, but because those who wanted to sell have already sold.
