Institution: The U.S. labor market will continue its weak trend, and the negative impact of the September non-farm report may be amplified.

Jin10 reports that the non-farm payroll report for September, delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, is set to be released tonight. In the context of the rapidly evolving economic environment, the timeliness of this data may have significantly diminished. However, this employment report is likely to be the last reliable employment data for the next few months, as the government shutdown severely disrupted the normal processes of data collection and analysis during parts of October and November. Economists widely predict that September will see the addition of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. If the data meets expectations, 2025 is destined to become the weakest year for U.S. job growth since the pandemic period and even the global financial crisis. Indeed Hiring Lab economist Allison Shriver stated that, compared to previous reports, she does not expect any significant changes in the September report, and the current weakness in the labor market will continue. Oliver Allen, a senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that any unsatisfactory data at the moment may continue to fester due to a six-week data vacuum, potentially amplifying its negative impact. (Jin10)